How should Republicans get "low propensity Trump voters" to show up in 2026?
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  How should Republicans get "low propensity Trump voters" to show up in 2026?
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Author Topic: How should Republicans get "low propensity Trump voters" to show up in 2026?  (Read 775 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« on: November 16, 2024, 03:45:25 PM »

There seems to be an increasing amount of evidence that suggests nowadays it's Republicans who have the lower propensity coalition - in 2024 there seems to be a non-negligible number of voters who literally just showed up for Trump and left the rest of the ballot blank. It's also arguably a huge part of the reason Republicans underperformed in 2022 and many special elections leading up to 2024.

So in 2026, what's Republican's best strategy for trying to get these types of voters to the polls? Is it trying to tie down ballot elections to Trump to the point where voting down ballot R *is* a vote for Trump? Is it trying to focus on winning back other higher propensity voters instead?

Personally, I think one thing the online right would want to do is somehow expand beyond just Trump's personality and try to create loyalty to the Republican Party, but I think that'd be somewhat tricky, especially because a lot of the less engaged Trump types currently have some rhetoric around how "they're voting against the uniparty" or whatever. The other challenging thing is it seems like it's been difficult for down ballot Rs to do Trumpism without Trump, but then if they aren't Trumpy enough getting these voters would be even more challenging.

I think this is the main thing Republicans will want to think about heading into the 2026 midterms because if you have unfavorable headwinds *and* unfavorable turnout dynamics, the midterm could be a disaster for the party.
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Storr
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« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2024, 04:05:19 PM »

I hate to say it, but play up culture wars issues. How do you get Joe the self employed mechanic MAGA supporter to show up and vote when Trump isn’t on the ballot? By making him angry about CRT, hormones being given to minors, crime in big cities, illegal immigrant caravans, or whatever the issue du jour hyped up by right wing media is in 2026.
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2024, 04:08:55 PM »

The problem is that in 2018, they did this relatively well for a midterm but they also energised Democratic voters even more and turned persuadable voters against them. A circus of a Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearing created clear conflict over a divisive cultural issue (MeToo), which was followed up by manufactured hysteria over a migrant caravan.
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Compuzled_One
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« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2024, 04:57:55 PM »

Getting things done, maybe saying the Dems will take it away to.
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Ljube
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« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2024, 05:06:59 PM »

Campaigning hard. Setting up a strong GOTV operation.

Republicans are the low propensity majority now.
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New World Man
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« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2024, 06:23:43 PM »

Nothing they can do. The base doesn't care about other candidates.
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vbfox
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« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2024, 06:25:25 PM »

A lot of the Trump voters only show up for him or were wanting a change from the incumbent party. It'd be hard to argue for change when you're in power. Plus, Rs tried the migrant caravans in 2018 and did not do well
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2024, 06:50:42 PM »

I hate to say it, but play up culture wars issues. How do you get Joe the self employed mechanic MAGA supporter to show up and vote when Trump isn’t on the ballot? By making him angry about CRT, hormones being given to minors, crime in big cities, illegal immigrant caravans, or whatever the issue du jour hyped up by right wing media is in 2026.

The dilemma with that is with Trump being in power now, all of those things are supposed to instantly be solved, even 8f the finger is pointed at Democrats it really interferes with the narrative and expectations Trump set for himself.

Granted, I might be expecting too much out of the Cyruses, Earls, and Mongos of the country again...
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #8 on: November 17, 2024, 07:46:07 PM »

I hate to say it, but play up culture wars issues. How do you get Joe the self employed mechanic MAGA supporter to show up and vote when Trump isn’t on the ballot? By making him angry about CRT, hormones being given to minors, crime in big cities, illegal immigrant caravans, or whatever the issue du jour hyped up by right wing media is in 2026.

The dilemma with that is with Trump being in power now, all of those things are supposed to instantly be solved, even 8f the finger is pointed at Democrats it really interferes with the narrative and expectations Trump set for himself.

Granted, I might be expecting too much out of the Cyruses, Earls, and Mongos of the country again...

One thing that seems to be constant throughout the Trump years is people, especially less politically engaged people, just hold him to a different standard, perhaps because he isn't really running on coherent policy promises.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: November 17, 2024, 07:50:50 PM »

I hate to say it, but play up culture wars issues. How do you get Joe the self employed mechanic MAGA supporter to show up and vote when Trump isn’t on the ballot? By making him angry about CRT, hormones being given to minors, crime in big cities, illegal immigrant caravans, or whatever the issue du jour hyped up by right wing media is in 2026.

The dilemma with that is with Trump being in power now, all of those things are supposed to instantly be solved, even 8f the finger is pointed at Democrats it really interferes with the narrative and expectations Trump set for himself.

Granted, I might be expecting too much out of the Cyruses, Earls, and Mongos of the country again...

One thing that seems to be constant throughout the Trump years is people, especially less politically engaged people, just hold him to a different standard, perhaps because he isn't really running on coherent policy promises.

That has become beyond evident. It's still no excuse for rewarding that kind of person potentially unchecked power, especially if him being in power ends up making things tangibly worse for those less engaged people.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2024, 07:59:15 PM »

I hate to say it, but play up culture wars issues. How do you get Joe the self employed mechanic MAGA supporter to show up and vote when Trump isn’t on the ballot? By making him angry about CRT, hormones being given to minors, crime in big cities, illegal immigrant caravans, or whatever the issue du jour hyped up by right wing media is in 2026.

The dilemma with that is with Trump being in power now, all of those things are supposed to instantly be solved, even 8f the finger is pointed at Democrats it really interferes with the narrative and expectations Trump set for himself.

Granted, I might be expecting too much out of the Cyruses, Earls, and Mongos of the country again...

One thing that seems to be constant throughout the Trump years is people, especially less politically engaged people, just hold him to a different standard, perhaps because he isn't really running on coherent policy promises.

That has become beyond evident. It's still no excuse for rewarding that kind of person potentially unchecked power, especially if him being in power ends up making things tangibly worse for those less engaged people.

After a certain point, I'm of the belief let people get what they voted for. There's sort of an irony in the current coalitions in that a large chunk of *both* sides seem to be voting against their interests. It's generally the Democratic states that punch above their weight in terms of things like GDP, and would have the best ability to sustain independent economies from the rest of the Country, and it's the GOP states that disproportionately rely on government welfare.

If Trump does something that raises the prices and/or nosedives the economy, it's likely going to be the areas that voted most overwhelmingly for him that will be disproportionately impacted. If Trump tries to mess with things like the DOE it'll be the red states (especially rural areas) that bear the biggest consequences.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2024, 08:29:18 PM »

I hate to say it, but play up culture wars issues. How do you get Joe the self employed mechanic MAGA supporter to show up and vote when Trump isn’t on the ballot? By making him angry about CRT, hormones being given to minors, crime in big cities, illegal immigrant caravans, or whatever the issue du jour hyped up by right wing media is in 2026.

The dilemma with that is with Trump being in power now, all of those things are supposed to instantly be solved, even 8f the finger is pointed at Democrats it really interferes with the narrative and expectations Trump set for himself.

Granted, I might be expecting too much out of the Cyruses, Earls, and Mongos of the country again...

One thing that seems to be constant throughout the Trump years is people, especially less politically engaged people, just hold him to a different standard, perhaps because he isn't really running on coherent policy promises.

That has become beyond evident. It's still no excuse for rewarding that kind of person potentially unchecked power, especially if him being in power ends up making things tangibly worse for those less engaged people.

After a certain point, I'm of the belief let people get what they voted for. There's sort of an irony in the current coalitions in that a large chunk of *both* sides seem to be voting against their interests. It's generally the Democratic states that punch above their weight in terms of things like GDP, and would have the best ability to sustain independent economies from the rest of the Country, and it's the GOP states that disproportionately rely on government welfare.

If Trump does something that raises the prices and/or nosedives the economy, it's likely going to be the areas that voted most overwhelmingly for him that will be disproportionately impacted. If Trump tries to mess with things like the DOE it'll be the red states (especially rural areas) that bear the biggest consequences.

Indeed. They'll get what they deserve for not being more informed, considering consequences, or heeding warnings.

It just sucks that those of us who knew better, and may be peoven right, have to suffer too.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #12 on: November 17, 2024, 08:54:48 PM »

I hate to say it, but play up culture wars issues. How do you get Joe the self employed mechanic MAGA supporter to show up and vote when Trump isn’t on the ballot? By making him angry about CRT, hormones being given to minors, crime in big cities, illegal immigrant caravans, or whatever the issue du jour hyped up by right wing media is in 2026.

The dilemma with that is with Trump being in power now, all of those things are supposed to instantly be solved, even 8f the finger is pointed at Democrats it really interferes with the narrative and expectations Trump set for himself.

Granted, I might be expecting too much out of the Cyruses, Earls, and Mongos of the country again...

One thing that seems to be constant throughout the Trump years is people, especially less politically engaged people, just hold him to a different standard, perhaps because he isn't really running on coherent policy promises.

That has become beyond evident. It's still no excuse for rewarding that kind of person potentially unchecked power, especially if him being in power ends up making things tangibly worse for those less engaged people.

After a certain point, I'm of the belief let people get what they voted for. There's sort of an irony in the current coalitions in that a large chunk of *both* sides seem to be voting against their interests. It's generally the Democratic states that punch above their weight in terms of things like GDP, and would have the best ability to sustain independent economies from the rest of the Country, and it's the GOP states that disproportionately rely on government welfare.

If Trump does something that raises the prices and/or nosedives the economy, it's likely going to be the areas that voted most overwhelmingly for him that will be disproportionately impacted. If Trump tries to mess with things like the DOE it'll be the red states (especially rural areas) that bear the biggest consequences.

Same with RFK at HHS. Any bad decisions he makes will disproportionately affect Trump supporters because they’re the ones who are going to listen to him.
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #13 on: November 18, 2024, 01:08:11 AM »

A bigger question is does he even care? If implemented, his agenda will wreck our economy and his party’s image for years. My suspicion is he dgaf cuz he won’t live that long anyway and just wants to collect a little moolah, boss people around, and make his legal problems go away
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #14 on: November 18, 2024, 07:16:05 PM »

A bigger question is does he even care? If implemented, his agenda will wreck our economy and his party’s image for years. My suspicion is he dgaf cuz he won’t live that long anyway and just wants to collect a little moolah, boss people around, and make his legal problems go away

The legal problems going away are absolutely the priority. He got the votes he needed for that to happen, and doesn't give two flying f***s about the rest of the party. You're absolutely right.
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Steve from Lambeth
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« Reply #15 on: November 18, 2024, 10:05:23 PM »

By telling them that elections happen every two years, and that there are many Republicans on each ballot.
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xavier110
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« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2024, 10:55:12 AM »

A stimmy check at the end of 2026 — but only if you vote.
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ottermax
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« Reply #17 on: November 19, 2024, 12:22:40 PM »

They can't.

They will need to appeal to suburban and higher-propensity voters following something like the Youngkin playbook. Focus on poorly run Democratic state governments to scare these voters into voting Republican, bring up culture war issues that have more salience for higher turnout voters (education, taxes, terrorism, China, etc.)
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: November 19, 2024, 01:02:25 PM »
« Edited: November 19, 2024, 07:24:09 PM by Skill and Chance »

1. Run Latino/Latina candidates for as many statewide offices in CA/NV/AZ/NM/TX/FL as possible. 

2. Find creative ways to demonstrate real wage gains and/or jobs kept/created from tariffs.  Trump is a natural showman, I'm sure he can come up with some events.

3. Some high profile executive orders and/or lawsuits involving religious freedom to boost Evangelical turnout.  Furthermore, when Alito and/or Thomas likely retires next congress, nominate a conservative Southern Evangelical for at least one of the seats. 

4. Tax cuts in a way people at average incomes immediately see, like actually ending taxation of tips or overtime pay or taxation of social security.  Ideally, do it in a way that involves directly mailing people checks signed by Trump.

5. Do things that are likely to generate large protests on college campuses and/or in blue city centers, some of which develop into riots.  Most likely this would either involve deportation programs in sanctuary cities/counties or Middle Eastern foreign policy. 

#5 is high risk though.  It could escalate and backfire, e.g. if Trump (or an R governor with Trump's blessing) orders the National Guard to just open fire indiscriminately in their general direction until they are dispersed and then that footage ends up on national news.
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