Why did Oregon buck the trends?

[wbrocks67]

OR itself had a mini red wave in 2022 with a mediocre performance by Kotek (though in context not surprising given Dem governors seem to generally have mediocre performances in OR) and even Wyden only winning by 14.9% against a perennial candidate. Obviously, Portland has also caused a lot of stir in the news over the past few years and was a big "voters are getting annoyed at blue state/city governance" target for many.

And yet, OR as of now, has only shifted 1.9% to the right of 2020 (16.1 > 14.2) and Multnomah, home of Portland, with still a few ballots left to count, has actually shifted *leftward* compared to 2020, despite issues in Dem cities all over the country.

OR as a whole also held up much better this year than in 2016 as well, when Hillary only won it by 11.

What happened?

Something tells me the "voters voting against the blue city governance" thing is a lot more nuanced than people are portraying it.

[kwabbit]

Religion played a much greater role in dictating electoral trends in 2024 than it has in a long time. Oregon is very White, but it is also very non-Catholic. It received lots of English/Yankee settlement and little Southern European, Hispanic, or French settlement. While I think that most Irish or Hispanic Catholics support abortion rights, it's also likely that Harris' abortion message played better with Protestants/historically Protestant ethnicities than with Catholics. The religion factor unites Massachusetts and Rhode Island swinging right despite being quite White but Washington and Oregon barely moving.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oregon is one of the whitest states in the country and white states shifted less right than more diverse states .

You see this even in the Big 7 where WI was the state that swung R the least .

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

Not a huge black or Hispanic population, and the white population is overwhelmingly WASP or German as opposed to Irish, French, or Italian Catholic.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/schlagteslinks/status/1855671024014311534
https://twitter.com/james19872002/status/1855682190845329795

[Adjective-Statement]

Wbrocks threaf, but as a particularly white state, racial depolarization wasn't felt as strongly there. Regarding Portland, when comparing turnout to 2020, turnout decline was lower in Portland than statewide as well as the non-Portland parts of Multnomah County due to its recent implementation of ranked-choice voting.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Honestly I still don't know why Multnomah County didn't swing R, or why WA and OR both swung R by so little. Harris overperformed my expectations in both King and Multnomah Counties.

The Portland RCV voting explanation probably works for Portland and Seattle never doing full decriminalization probably works for Seattle, but I don't know if it's the whole story.

OR is actually slightly less White (71.65%) than both MI (72.40%) and PA (73.47%), but that might be less reflected in the CVAP because OR is also only 2% Black.

[MaynardFriedman]

Oregon and Washington have been shedding right-wing voters like crazy, who are moving to Idaho and other states in droves. It's surprising to me that no one has offered this explanation. It's obvious if you're from the Northwest, not so obvious otherwise.

Historically, swings in Idaho and eastern WA have been reasonably correlated. This year, none of that applies. And I think this is the explanation.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Oregon and Washington have been shedding right-wing voters like crazy, who are moving to Idaho and other states in droves. It's surprising to me that no one has offered this explanation. It's obvious if you're from the Northwest, not so obvious otherwise.

Historically, swings in Idaho and eastern WA have been reasonably correlated. This year, none of that applies. And I think this is the explanation.

Yeah the contrast between WA/OR having some of the least aggressive R-shifts and ID's aggressive R-shifts really stands out and makes me think the self-sorting thing is real. I don't think that many people are upending their whole lives and moving just because of politics, but Conservative types may just be more naturally attracted to ID for a variety of reasons and vise-versa for liberals and WA/OR.

Another theory that could explain this around the margins is in OR and WA, the Dem base is significantly highly propensity than the R base these days with tons of college educated white liberals - so any turnout dropoff came disproportionately from rural Republicans. Compare that to a state like TX or GA where it's clear not only did Harris struggle with persuasion with key groups, but turnout in key Dem areas (mainly non-white) was just really bad.

[Vosem]

Oregon and Washington have been shedding right-wing voters like crazy, who are moving to Idaho and other states in droves. It's surprising to me that no one has offered this explanation. It's obvious if you're from the Northwest, not so obvious otherwise.

Historically, swings in Idaho and eastern WA have been reasonably correlated. This year, none of that applies. And I think this is the explanation.

Idaho had an enormous Republican swing which is concentrated in Boise and the Northern Panhandle -- areas which have been distinctly attracting out-of-state voters -- and which looks very strange relative to other heavily-Mormon states or Mountain West states, and, yeah, based on the geography probably part of the explanation is a "miniature Florida" phenomenon where people who move to Idaho must be disproportionately very Republican. It's overshadowed because most of these areas were already heavily Republican anyway, but parts of Idaho saw very weirdly strong rightward shifts.

[Fuzzy Bear Stands With S019 And Israel]

Religion played a much greater role in dictating electoral trends in 2024 than it has in a long time. Oregon is very White, but it is also very non-Catholic. It received lots of English/Yankee settlement and little Southern European, Hispanic, or French settlement. While I think that most Irish or Hispanic Catholics support abortion rights, it's also likely that Harris' abortion message played better with Protestants/historically Protestant ethnicities than with Catholics. The religion factor unites Massachusetts and Rhode Island swinging right despite being quite White but Washington and Oregon barely moving.

By some measures, Oregon is the most secular and least religious state in America.

[Joe Rogaine]

1. We're very white. Harris held up well with white voters, particularly the kind of high-propensity white voter that Oregon has a lot of.

2. VBM means less likelihood of drastic turnout drops.

3. Trump is not palatable to the electorate the same way someone like Buehler or Drazan would be. Oregon has plenty of Trumpers, but not a lot of people who aren't already on the train are persuadable. And a majority of people aren't on the train. It's already difficult for moderate Republicans to win here, Trump is absolutely not the kind of Republican who could syphon the kinds of votes out of population centers (Portland, Portland suburbs, Eugene, Bend, Corvallis, even in Salem, though he's flipped Marion unsurprisingly) necessary to produce the same swings you saw in other safe blue states. That's why the whole idea that a backlash to our crappy state government was going to produce a notable rightward swing was flawed. Lots of people are tired of Democratic governance at the state level, but a majority of us don't want to associate with the national GOP.

[New World Man]

I don't think Oregon has ever really elected a hardliner to governor or senate. They had Packwood and Mark Hatfield.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Lots of people are tired of Democratic governance at the state level, but a majority of us don't want to associate with the national GOP.

Can’t imagine what that’s like at all.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Religion played a much greater role in dictating electoral trends in 2024 than it has in a long time. Oregon is very White, but it is also very non-Catholic. It received lots of English/Yankee settlement and little Southern European, Hispanic, or French settlement. While I think that most Irish or Hispanic Catholics support abortion rights, it's also likely that Harris' abortion message played better with Protestants/historically Protestant ethnicities than with Catholics. The religion factor unites Massachusetts and Rhode Island swinging right despite being quite White but Washington and Oregon barely moving.

The key caveat to your point is that this applies outside of the South/heavily evangelical Protestant areas.

[Samof94]

Oregon and Washington have been shedding right-wing voters like crazy, who are moving to Idaho and other states in droves. It's surprising to me that no one has offered this explanation. It's obvious if you're from the Northwest, not so obvious otherwise.

Historically, swings in Idaho and eastern WA have been reasonably correlated. This year, none of that applies. And I think this is the explanation.

Idaho had an enormous Republican swing which is concentrated in Boise and the Northern Panhandle -- areas which have been distinctly attracting out-of-state voters -- and which looks very strange relative to other heavily-Mormon states or Mountain West states, and, yeah, based on the geography probably part of the explanation is a "miniature Florida" phenomenon where people who move to Idaho must be disproportionately very Republican. It's overshadowed because most of these areas were already heavily Republican anyway, but parts of Idaho saw very weirdly strong rightward shifts.

What is the appeal of Idaho to conservatives??? I mean, it lacks Florida's weather.

[New World Man]

Oregon and Washington have been shedding right-wing voters like crazy, who are moving to Idaho and other states in droves. It's surprising to me that no one has offered this explanation. It's obvious if you're from the Northwest, not so obvious otherwise.

Historically, swings in Idaho and eastern WA have been reasonably correlated. This year, none of that applies. And I think this is the explanation.

Idaho had an enormous Republican swing which is concentrated in Boise and the Northern Panhandle -- areas which have been distinctly attracting out-of-state voters -- and which looks very strange relative to other heavily-Mormon states or Mountain West states, and, yeah, based on the geography probably part of the explanation is a "miniature Florida" phenomenon where people who move to Idaho must be disproportionately very Republican. It's overshadowed because most of these areas were already heavily Republican anyway, but parts of Idaho saw very weirdly strong rightward shifts.

What is the appeal of Idaho to conservatives??? I mean, it lacks Florida's weather.

I was hoping a bunch of  liberals would move to Idaho and make it Colorado.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Oregon and Washington have been shedding right-wing voters like crazy, who are moving to Idaho and other states in droves. It's surprising to me that no one has offered this explanation. It's obvious if you're from the Northwest, not so obvious otherwise.

Historically, swings in Idaho and eastern WA have been reasonably correlated. This year, none of that applies. And I think this is the explanation.

Idaho had an enormous Republican swing which is concentrated in Boise and the Northern Panhandle -- areas which have been distinctly attracting out-of-state voters -- and which looks very strange relative to other heavily-Mormon states or Mountain West states, and, yeah, based on the geography probably part of the explanation is a "miniature Florida" phenomenon where people who move to Idaho must be disproportionately very Republican. It's overshadowed because most of these areas were already heavily Republican anyway, but parts of Idaho saw very weirdly strong rightward shifts.

What is the appeal of Idaho to conservatives??? I mean, it lacks Florida's weather.

It also lacks Florida’s ethnic diversity and population size.

Or more to the point, Southern California’s.

[Crumpets]

Similar to my explanation for why Washington trended well left of the nation this year, I think Oregon got hit pretty in the COVID era, especially on issues like crime and homelessness, but which has experienced a substantial improvement since 2020-2022. If we treat elections as lagging indicators of sentiment, their 2022 election was a reflection of how they felt during the second half of the COVID era (after re-opening, but still experiencing things like staffing shortages, property damage, and more visible homelessness), while their 2024 reflected the more 2023-2024 shift in a positive direction, giving some credit to the Biden administration (albeit, not enough to actually swing the state left, just hold it from swinging as far rightward as other places). Also, you have to figure the migration situation out of Oregon will be a lot of Republicans while the domestic migration situation into Oregon will be more Democrats.

[lfromnj]

Honestly my bigger question is Massachusetts. Is it just Irish voters? Like obviously you have the industrial towns like Lawrence/Springfield/ Fall River etc that have Hispanic voters or Portugese that trended hard right which makes sense. But even in the suburbs you have towns like Wellesley having a small reversion from like Biden +57 to Harris +52.  How Jewish are these suburbs?

[RBH]

I'm sticking by the theory that some unknown amount of the movement was due to anti-abortion voters who were still voting Dem voting for Trump in an election where abortion was a talked about issue. Of course going from 20-25% of a group to 8% of a group is a larger drop in some areas than others. Especially in the Northeast where the turnout drop off would hit Dems harder since pro-choice voters don't have as much urgency to think abortion in their states is under threat.

Also, Starlink and Diebold don't work in Oregon. /s

[MaynardFriedman]

Honestly my bigger question is Massachusetts. Is it just Irish voters? Like obviously you have the industrial towns like Lawrence/Springfield/ Fall River etc that have Hispanic voters or Portugese that trended hard right which makes sense. But even in the suburbs you have towns like Wellesley having a small reversion from like Biden +57 to Harris +52.  How Jewish are these suburbs?

They are very Jewish, famously so.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Honestly I still don't know why Multnomah County didn't swing R, or why WA and OR both swung R by so little. Harris overperformed my expectations in both King and Multnomah Counties.

The Portland RCV voting explanation probably works for Portland and Seattle never doing full decriminalization probably works for Seattle, but I don't know if it's the whole story.

Another comment about Seattle and Portland proper- it seems that both Portland and Seattle have continued to get less Non-Hispanic White during the Biden presidency (to the point where PDX proper is no longer the whitest big US city). Seattle's Asian-only population has stalled/decreased while Portland's Asian-only percentage presumably has not. I doubt this is meaningfully connected to King County and Multnomah County swinging in different directions, but still noteworthy given that unusual outcome.
(For everyone who thinks of the PNW as an Aryan Homeland- the linked article says Seattle proper is 59% NHW, Portland proper is 64% NHW).

A more relevant factor for Multnomah County would be Biden-era wage increases outpacing housing prices.
https://www.threads.net/@mikeyouwish/post/DCr2AElSJuk

Inflation-adjusted rents in Portland are currently at summer 2017 levels.
1/5 (graph)

https://www.threads.net/@mikeyouwish/post/DCr2AgNyHTX

Aggregate wages in Multnomah County have grown 3.7x faster than rents in Portland, with most gains in 2020-2022.
2/5 (graph)

[David Hume]

Oregon and Washington have been shedding right-wing voters like crazy, who are moving to Idaho and other states in droves. It's surprising to me that no one has offered this explanation. It's obvious if you're from the Northwest, not so obvious otherwise.

Historically, swings in Idaho and eastern WA have been reasonably correlated. This year, none of that applies. And I think this is the explanation.

This is true in CA and NY as well.

[ottermax]

Oregon and Washington have been shedding right-wing voters like crazy, who are moving to Idaho and other states in droves. It's surprising to me that no one has offered this explanation. It's obvious if you're from the Northwest, not so obvious otherwise.

Historically, swings in Idaho and eastern WA have been reasonably correlated. This year, none of that applies. And I think this is the explanation.

This is true in CA and NY as well.

WA and OR have historically been very polarized electorates with fewer swing voters despite being very White states. CA and NY have Democratic parties that rely on Latino and Black voters to turnout to balance a more Republican White electorate. When turnout drops CA and NY can have surprisingly strong years for Republicans unless Democrats have a moderate enough candidate to appeal to the swingier White electorate (especially in NY). The CA shifts are a bit bizarre now that I reflect on it because you'd expect some of the Whiter suburbs or rural areas to have shifted left based on national patterns but it simply might be fatigue from the cost of living and tiredness of poor Democratic governance. I don't think WA or OR feel as poorly governed as CA does, but still it's weird to see places like Douglas, Curry, Lincoln, and Coos County shift left, while Mendocino, Del Norte, Plumas, or Marin shifted right in CA.