Brown "not ruling out" running again

[RJ]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sherrod-brown-not-ruling-out-running-for-vance-s-senate-seat/ar-AA1u8URm?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=LCTS&cvid=d4676e29d04346bbb5957bceb0a6b1fe&ei=52

I hope Sherrod runs and wins in 2026, retires in 2028, and punches both J Dummy and Bernie Mor-e-hole out on the way and rides off into the sunset!

[Flyersfan232]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sherrod-brown-not-ruling-out-running-for-vance-s-senate-seat/ar-AA1u8URm?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=LCTS&cvid=d4676e29d04346bbb5957bceb0a6b1fe&ei=52

I hope Sherrod runs and wins in 2026, retires in 2028, and punches both J Dummy and Brenie Mor-e-hole out on the way and rides off into the sunset!

he will never win another general election again

[Virginiá]

he will never win another general election again

Eh, he won his race in 2018, the last Trump midterm. I wouldn't give him favorable odds right now, but I wouldn't be so quick to write him off if it's a bad midterm for Republicans, especially in an open seat contest. Major crossover support isn't as common as it used to be, but it clearly still happens.

[MT Treasurer]

He won in 2018 as an incumbent when Republicans didn’t even contest, let alone prioritize, the state. That won’t be the case in a high-stakes, nationalized special election against a nominee possibly more competent than Bernie Moreno (who still ended up winning, of course). DeWine is also unlikely to pick someone flawed enough to turn OH into an insta-Tossup.

Unless GOP voters stay home en masse (in a way they didn’t even in 2018 and 2022) & there’s a particularly divisive GOP primary with the eventual nominee unable to appeal to Trump supporters, the idea of Sherrod Brown winning in November 2026 strikes me the same way the idea of Susan Collins being DOA does: wishful thinking from Democratic partisans who have a record of being very overconfident (and very wrong).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I don't see why the idea of him winning is so crazy. He lost by 4 in an R+2 national environment, in a presidential year (where turnout patterns/polarisation make downballot overperformance harder). Ohio appears to have trended D this year - I don't think that is sustainable, but it can't be completely discounted.

The local GOP has a history of nominating less popular/competent candidates than Moreno, and it's not a given that the appointee will run or be nominated by the party base (DeWine himself isn't too popular with them). In any case, Brown will have lost incumbency but won't be ancient history, and if the midterm environment is like 2018's, I would expect it to be one of the more competitive races.

[MT Treasurer]

"Ohio trended D" is a pretty flawed argument — almost every state "trended" D this year because of the Harris collapse in the most populous states.

What matters is that OH, like IA and FL, is significantly more Republican today than it was in 2018 or even 2020.

[Virginiá]

the idea of Sherrod Brown winning in November 2026 strikes me the same way the idea of Susan Collins being DOA does: wishful thinking from Democratic partisans who have a record of being very overconfident (and very wrong).

I didn't say he was going to win, in fact I said I wouldn't give him good odds in that race right now. I did say that a large wave environment gives Democrats a chance. With the way the electorate has been shifting, I don't think anyone should be dying on the hill of "these voters will never split their tickets" right after an election where many red state voters did split their tickets, but not enough for Democrats to outrun large Trump margins.

[President Johnson]

I'd prefer Tim Ryan trying again, but Ohio is probably gone. Even in a Trump midterm.

[MT Treasurer]

the idea of Sherrod Brown winning in November 2026 strikes me the same way the idea of Susan Collins being DOA does: wishful thinking from Democratic partisans who have a record of being very overconfident (and very wrong).

I didn't say he was going to win, in fact I said I wouldn't give him good odds in that race right now. I did say that a large wave environment gives Democrats a chance. With the way the electorate has been shifting, I don't think anyone should be dying on the mountain of "these voters will never split their tickets" right after an election where many red state voters did split their tickets, but not enough for Democrats to outrun large Trump margins.

Obviously there will be split-ticket voting and Republicans will be forced to spend $$$ in the state, but that will happen regardless of whether Sherrod Brown runs or not just because Democrats will seriously contest the state (by virtue of it being more D than any of the other red states) and because turnout in non-presidential years now largely favors Democrats. The party also has a massive financial advantage now.

Sherrod Brown could win in a massive blue wave year against a clown show of a Republican Party with very favorable turnout benefiting Ds across the board, but virtually any halfway competent Democrat could win under those circumstances. Him running or not running changes very little about the fact that this seat only flips under those circumstances, however. What I mean is that there’s nothing unique to Sherrod Brown that would change the overall outlook here.

[New World Man]

Yes,no way Brown could ever,ever win again. BUT Susan Collins is totally unbeatable.

[Mr. Smith]

In the Special Election, he might have a shot. 

Not a snowball's chance anywhere else.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm just not sure running Brown again after he just lost a highly contested federal race is a good idea - even if he did put up a strong overperformance. Perhaps run someone with similar optics and messaging to Brown, but who is a new face.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

He won in 2018 as an incumbent when Republicans didn’t even contest, let alone prioritize, the state. That won’t be the case in a high-stakes, nationalized special election against a nominee possibly more competent than Bernie Moreno (who still ended up winning, of course). DeWine is also unlikely to pick someone flawed enough to turn OH into an insta-Tossup.

Unless GOP voters stay home en masse (in a way they didn’t even in 2018 and 2022) & there’s a particularly divisive GOP primary with the eventual nominee unable to appeal to Trump supporters, the idea of Sherrod Brown winning in November 2026 strikes me the same way the idea of Susan Collins being DOA does: wishful thinking from Democratic partisans who have a record of being very overconfident (and very wrong).

The thing is, Sherrod Brown remains popular, and when you place him into an expectedly anti-Trump midterm, there is very much a possibility of him winning. Don't underestimate the GOP's ability to also nominate some complete unelectable like Vivek.

Brown is still the best possible option in the Dem bench, and even a fresher face like Tim Ryan probably couldn't compete with his legend-status in the state. You can't deny that he still impressively outperformed Harris on the same ballot. If he was able to perform that well in a Presidential environment, why couldn't he win in a midterm environment?

[Spectator]

Brown for Governor and Ryan for Senate would make most sense.

[MillennialModerate]

Feel like a Dem could upset in ‘26 but wouldn’t hold on in ‘28

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Brown for Governor and Ryan for Senate would make most sense.

I’d definitely flip those.  Husted is going to win and if not him, then Yost.  Ryan would make Republicans put up a hell of a fight and help with turnout. 

Brown would have a narrow path to victory against someone like Warren Davidson, Keith Faber, Vivek Ramaswamy, or Matt Huffman.  He could also win if Dolan wins his primary, but a right-wing independent/third party some dude runs (very possible).  It’s pretty clear Brown would’ve narrowly beaten Moreno had it not been a Presidential election year.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Isn't the election going to be in 2025? Thought I saw somewhere that Ohio law wouldn't allow it to be even as late as the 2026 midterms.

[Progressive Pessimist]

In a special election he could probably win.

I'm less sure about a midterm.

But who else do Democrats even have? He did still outperform Harris by eight points, and lost by less than Ryan did in a much less favorable environment.

He is also just a damn good Senator who deserves better.

[Virginiá]

Isn't the election going to be in 2025? Thought I saw somewhere that Ohio law wouldn't allow it to be even as late as the 2026 midterms.

It's in 2026.

https://codes.ohio.gov/ohio-revised-code/section-3521.02

[Don't Tread on Me]

Unless we're at W. Bush levels for the GOP by 2026, I'm not sure if I'd consider him to be the favorite. As of now it seems like Strickland making a comeback vibes which did not fare well for him. But if the three C's move left, it's always possible that the state could revert back to single-digit victories which might be enough. I believe that Cleveland in particular usually has low voter turnout which may hurt the GOP if that changed.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

It doesn’t sound like he’s committed to running, but if he does, I think it’s undeniable he’d give Democrats a better chance of winning the seat. He wouldn’t be favored, but a 7.5% overperformance of the top of the ticket is nothing to sneeze at, and while he wouldn’t overperform by as much against a better candidate than Moreno, it would take a miracle for Republicans to not do significantly worse in 2026 than in 2024. If he runs, I’d start the race out as Lean R, and probably the best pick-up opportunity for Democrats other than ME/NC.

[Pericles]

An 11 point margin isn't that insurmountable, especially because baseline partisanship will be a lot less with a blue wave national environment and Republican turnout dropping off more here.

[Averroës]

I like Brown as much as anyone, but the fact that anyone is looking to someone was just voted out of office - on a not particularly thin margin, despite a well fought campaign - as the best hope of making this interesting is just the mark of a moribund party.

[New World Man]

I like Brown as much as anyone, but the fact that anyone is looking to someone was just voted out of office - on a not particularly thin margin, despite a well fought campaign - as the best hope of making this interesting is just the mark of a moribund party.

True,but who else do they really have?

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

I like Brown as much as anyone, but the fact that anyone is looking to someone was just voted out of office - on a not particularly thin margin, despite a well fought campaign - as the best hope of making this interesting is just the mark of a moribund party.

3.8% is a pretty narrow margin, all things considered.