The next REALISTIC time for a Democratic trifecta and ability to get things done?

[MT Treasurer]

I agree that Dems will need close to a clean sweep of all the normal swing state Senate seats up in 2026 and 2028 to win the chamber, but I don't think that's an unreasonable task if and big *if* 2026 and 2028 are more Dem friendly years like 2018 and 2020.

It’s become a trend to compare 2026/2028 to 2018/2020, but do not forget that (a) 2018 was an uncharasterically lopsided defeat for the party holding the White House (especially given macro-conditions) that may be hard to replicate in its scale and that (b) Republicans lost the Senate in 2021, not in 2020.

Again: There’s clearly a path to a majority, and Republicans remain their worst enemy, but I do think it’ll be a lot more challenging for Democrats than in 2018/2020. People keep overlooking just how much Democrats are still punching above weight in the Senate, having managed a (near-)clean sweep of the swing states. Over the last few cycles, Republicans have clearly struggled to go on the offensive in more than the most obvious of obvious states (it’s the main reason they lost MT and WV in 2018, and they only corrected for those losses this year), but as the states where they need to go on the offensive become more obvious even to them, their room for error becomes smaller.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I agree that Dems will need close to a clean sweep of all the normal swing state Senate seats up in 2026 and 2028 to win the chamber, but I don't think that's an unreasonable task if and big *if* 2026 and 2028 are more Dem friendly years like 2018 and 2020.

It’s become a trend to compare 2026/2028 to 2018/2020, but do not forget that (a) 2018 was an uncharasterically lopsided defeat for the party holding the White House (especially given macro-conditions) that may be hard to replicate in its scale and that (b) Republicans lost the Senate in 2021, not in 2020.

Again: There’s clearly a path to a majority, and Republicans remain their worst enemy, but I do think it’ll be a lot more challenging for Democrats than in 2018/2020. People keep overlooking just how much Democrats are already punching above weight in the Senate, having managed a (near-)clean sweep of the swing states. Over the last few cycles, Republicans have clearly struggled to go on the offensive in more than the most obvious of obvious states (it’s the main reason they lost MT and WV in 2018, and they only corrected for those losses this year), but as the states where they need to go on the offensive become more obvious even to them, their room for error becomes smaller.

Fair point - I think to some degree Dems were lucky a disproportionate share of their vulnerable incumbents were on the class 1 Senate map because as you state GOP really couldn't target everybody who was up. If MT/OH-Sen weren't races that sunk up so much money this cycle decent chance Rs would've defeated Dems in WI/MI/NV and possibly AZ as well.

Now though all 3 senate classes are relatively even - almost eerily so. Outside of Susan Collins in Maine, Dems generally hold most of the swing state Senate seats but each map also has one or two clear targets for the party (both NC seats, Johnson, and McCormick), so swing state Dems will actually be seriously targeted.

I guess my point isn't necessarily that 2026/2028 will be like 2018/2020, but if the national environments are similar, Dems should be narrowly favored to flip the Senate in 2028 (flipping 4 of ME26, NC26, WI28, NC28, and VP while holding all their existing seats). Agree the biggest barrier might honestly be just holding all their existing seats in 2028 - even if just one thing goes wrong in one race, it could completely mess things up for them, and it's really hard to say how the "big 7" will look by 2028.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

Looking at 2028, I think the best path for Democrats would be the following:

2026: Hold everything but GA and flip NC
2028: Hold everything except NV

This would get them to 46

They now need 4-5 of the following:

Hold GA in 2026
Flip ME in 2026
Flip AK in either 2026 or 2028 (run Peltola)
Flip NC in 2028
Flip WI in 2028

This probably requires a D presidential victory in 2028 anyway, but this is probably the path.

Of course, if 2026 is a wave year then maybe they can get some unexpected opportunities such as TX or OH, though I think Democrats feel more pessimistic about both states now.

[Steve from Lambeth]

2028, if 2026 goes well enough.

Maybe by then it can be a trifecta that can pursue Supreme Court reform/packing, Dc and Puerto Rico statehood, campaign finance reform, codifying Roe, creating a paid sick/family leave program, a public option, other electoral reforms, etc.

Hell, I'd settle for just one of those things.

I’d say the first thing they have to pass is a law that mandates independent redistricting in every state.  They can’t afford another 2010-2012 where they get screwed so badly again.

This was one of the demands of the For The People Act (before it became the Freedom To Vote Act).

...Hopefully they can quickly pass DC and Pu[e]rto Rico statehood then, which would give them extra seats in the senate.

If the Median Ideal Democratic Outcome happens in 2028, Pennsylvania will be the only state with two Senators from different parties; all others will either be 2xD or 2xR. This would mean a 51D-49R balance with the Democrats in the White House.

I foresee PR statehood coming first, as it's less politically contentious. It would be most sensible for them to be awarded Class I and II seats, as that would mean 34 Senators being elected in each Class. I currently think that Jenniffer Gonzalez-Colon is by far the likeliest person to win the Class I seat: she was recently elected Governor (and is currently Resident Commissioner), is PR's most beloved Republican, is a huge supporter of statehood, and would be running in a Democratic midterm as well.

I have no idea what will happen in Class II. I'd keep an eye out for Pablo Jose Hernandez Rivera, a Democrat and the new Resident Commissioner. But given my complete lack of expertise and the fact that other candidates and situations may emerge, I'll be happy to chalk this one down as Lean D.

DC statehood is probably inevitable down the line - although not without plenty of fighting over the filibuster and the GOP's opposition to the idea - and, depending on how lots are drawn, could either get Class I/III or Class II/III. Both races would be Safe D. There's a pre-existing basin of Republican support in the Navy Yard and Marion Barry has hardly been the most effective mayor in the world, but unfortunately:

The DC Republican Party organisation is possibly the most inept in the nation; they make the PA Republicans look like Ataturk's CHP. You'd expect them to drive at least Mississippian levels of racially-polarised voting. Instead Trump won 5% in 2020 and Stacia Hall 6%, less than the second-placed candidate, in 2022's Mayoral election. Fewer votes were cast for all candidates combined in the 2024 Presidential primary than for Hall in the 2022 Mayoral primary.

Puerto Rico Class I (2030): Likely R
Puerto Rico Class II (2032): Lean D
Washington DC Class I/II (2030/32): Safe D
Washington DC Class III (2034): Safe D

As far as I know, however, when new states have been admitted, their Senators have entered the chamber in toto. It may be opportune for JGC to just appoint two NPP Republicans.

Given that Democrats just barely held onto four swing-state Senate seats this year - Elissa Slotkin in particular is quite arguably the luckiest candidate in recent Congressional memory, more so than RonJon - admitting even more states could be a poisoned chalice they may never recover from. The final score in 2030 may well be something like 55R-49D - and not the inverse. (59R-45D in 2032, with a Republican President helping to flip GA-NC-NH-MI and hold onto PR, would also be conceivable. One more flip in either year and then the Republicans would literally have a filibuster-proof majority.)

[Joe Biden 2028]

I'd really like to see Mary Peltola run for senate in 2026. I would also like to see Brown or Ryan run in the special senate election in Ohio

[Spectator]

I agree that Dems will need close to a clean sweep of all the normal swing state Senate seats up in 2026 and 2028 to win the chamber, but I don't think that's an unreasonable task if and big *if* 2026 and 2028 are more Dem friendly years like 2018 and 2020.

It’s become a trend to compare 2026/2028 to 2018/2020, but do not forget that (a) 2018 was an uncharasterically lopsided defeat for the party holding the White House (especially given macro-conditions) that may be hard to replicate in its scale and that (b) Republicans lost the Senate in 2021, not in 2020.

Again: There’s clearly a path to a majority, and Republicans remain their worst enemy, but I do think it’ll be a lot more challenging for Democrats than in 2018/2020. People keep overlooking just how much Democrats are still punching above weight in the Senate, having managed a (near-)clean sweep of the swing states. Over the last few cycles, Republicans have clearly struggled to go on the offensive in more than the most obvious of obvious states (it’s the main reason they lost MT and WV in 2018, and they only corrected for those losses this year), but as the states where they need to go on the offensive become more obvious even to them, their room for error becomes smaller.

I agree. All else equal, I'd expect Dems to end 2026 with both the House and at least 49 seats in the Senate, if not 50-51. And then for Shapiro/Gallego/Moore to beat Vance pretty easily in 2028 and flip WI/NC Senate seats in 2028 along with it. Lots of things could change, but that's just my hunch rn.

[smoltchanov]

most likely - 2028

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Flip IA, NC, ME in 26
Flip WI in 28 51/49 S

[freepcrusher]

I agree that Dems will need close to a clean sweep of all the normal swing state Senate seats up in 2026 and 2028 to win the chamber, but I don't think that's an unreasonable task if and big *if* 2026 and 2028 are more Dem friendly years like 2018 and 2020.

It’s become a trend to compare 2026/2028 to 2018/2020, but do not forget that (a) 2018 was an uncharasterically lopsided defeat for the party holding the White House (especially given macro-conditions) that may be hard to replicate in its scale and that (b) Republicans lost the Senate in 2021, not in 2020.

Again: There’s clearly a path to a majority, and Republicans remain their worst enemy, but I do think it’ll be a lot more challenging for Democrats than in 2018/2020. People keep overlooking just how much Democrats are still punching above weight in the Senate, having managed a (near-)clean sweep of the swing states. Over the last few cycles, Republicans have clearly struggled to go on the offensive in more than the most obvious of obvious states (it’s the main reason they lost MT and WV in 2018, and they only corrected for those losses this year), but as the states where they need to go on the offensive become more obvious even to them, their room for error becomes smaller.

so you're saying the dems should just put a fedpost into reality then? thats kind of the logical conclusion