The next REALISTIC time for a Democratic trifecta and ability to get things done?

[MillennialModerate]

Of course the cliche is you never know what is going to happen and things can change so suddenly etc etc but we live in a time now where electorally speaking things are pretty predictable compared to what they used to be.

Ticket splitting came back somewhat this year…..

AZ • (D) Senate - (R) President
MI • (D) Senate - (R) President
NC • (D) Governor - (R) Governor
NH • (D) President - (R) Governor
NV • (D) Senate - (R) Governor
PA • (D) Senate - (R) President
WI • (D) Senate - (R) President
VT • (D) President - (R) Governor

While swing voters made a big difference this time around, major landslides are unlikely because we have 35-40% of the country literally brainwashed where anything Hard R and Trump is good and anything Moderate R or D is bad.

Yes, Trump being gone will make an impact in that. But it’s hard not to think that he will push the message as long as he’s around. And even when he’s not around it’ll be a while before those people brainwashed by him start to even consider the idea that Democrats are a force for good.

Add in the fact that our system of electing people puts Dems at a fundamental disadvantage despite usually being what a majority of the electorate wants. From gerrymandering, to immoral officials purging voter rolls, making it harder to vote, the fillibuster in the Senate, the ridiculous population disparity, to the fact Dems didn’t get PR & DR statehood over the line.

So when is the next REALISTIC (ie PROBABLE) time the Democrats have a trifecta? In todays era of politics (2010-onward) the parties rarely work together on major issues. So you need a trifecta to get anything done.

So again, we don’t need the sunshine crew that ripped anyone who simply stated the obvious back in September. And we also don’t need any unnecessarily grim takes either. REASONABLE only.

[windjammer]

2028.

Gaining 3 senate seats in two senate cycles with no democrats in Trump2020 states is really really doable

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

2028.

[หมูเด้ง]

2028.

Gaining 3 senate seats in two senate cycles with no democrats in Trump2020 states is really really doable

I’m hoping they can get 3 this year and at least 2 in 2028.

[Accordion Hazard]

The main silver lining for Democrats for Harris losing in 2024 is it means Democrats have a favorable chance of a trifecta in 2028, whereas otherwise they'd have likely been locked out until 2032 or longer.

[Vosem]

Yeah, 2028. No particular reason Democrats couldn't gain ME/NC even if 2026 is a pretty mild midterm, followed by the Presidency and WI if 2028 is even a skin-of-their-teeth victory. Republicans won in 2024 by enough that the Senate is really hard for Democrats in 2026, but they didn't actually win by enough to put it away for 6 years.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's 2028.
All the factors you are worried about were still in play in 2020 (some even worse) and we won a trifecta then.

[MillennialModerate]

2028.

Who hacked Kakyos account?

Unironically expected...

"MM is a troll, had enough of his dooming ways. Dems have decent shot at Senate this year. Recount in PA is a sure thing, Brown will win in Ohio once they realize people filled in the wrong circle on their ballots and still some dark blue precincts to report from West Virginia"

[MillennialModerate]

The main silver lining for Democrats for Harris losing in 2024 is it means Democrats have a favorable chance of a trifecta in 2028, whereas otherwise they'd have likely been locked out until 2032 or longer.

I thought of that even before the result was in and in normal circumstances I would have taken the trade off we got but Trump is too dangerous and too much of a treason artist - so I would've preferred waiting longer to avoid DT but alas here we are

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Realistic shot 2028. Probable...and with greater than 50 seats later much later.

In 2026 the Democrats have a shot of 2* GOP held seats ME and NC.

In 2028 The GOP is defending the other NC seat and WI.

So they need 3 of 4 assuming the win the presidency. All other GOP held seats are in states Trump won by over 11
 points* That sounds not bad.

But the Dems have to defend. GA 26, MI 26, GA 28, PA 28, AZ 28, NV 28

That means they can only afford to lose 1 senate race in the next 4 years.  They need 9/10 seats

I am not including states like MN and NH which were within 5 points in presidential election this time.

In 2022 they won (4 of 6 losing WI and NC) 2024 won (4 of 5) losing PA. 2020 they won 4of 5 losing NC.

So they can have a trifecta in 2028 but it is certainly not probable.


*I would count OH 2026 as potentially but as this election shows they would have a hard time defending it in 2028, so I'm not including it in my math. Without Ohio the next most competitive GOP held seat is Iowa at 13- The Dems have at least 10 seats more at risk than Iowa.  

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Both NC Senate seats are Safe Dem in 26 & 28 assuming Mark Robinson is the nominee each time.  And I don't really see how anyone could beat him in a GOP primary.

[MillennialModerate]

Both NC Senate seats are Safe Dem in 26 & 28 assuming Mark Robinson is the nominee each time.  And I don't really see how anyone could beat him in a GOP primary.

He is very beatable in a Republican primary. He will get no support from the NCGOP or Trump from now on because he is seen as a sure fire loser.

[Zenobiyl]

2032

[coloradocowboi]

It's hard to say. Right now it feels like rural states are out of reach for Democrats.

But if Trump is allowed to pursue tariffs and mass deportations, food prices skyrocket, etc., I would bet that some people in rural America start to wonder if they should keep voting over Pizzagate, culture wars BS

[Orser67]

It's certainly not 100% guaranteed that Democrats will win the presidency in 2028, but I personally would give it greater than 50/50 odds given where Trump's approvals stood the last time he left office. If we proceed from the assumption that Democrats win the presidency in 2028, then I'd say it's probably slightly more likely than not that the party wins a trifecta that cycle. They'd be virtually assured of winning the House given the current margin, the likelihood of pickups in the 2026 mid-terms, and the likelihood of pickups (or at least holding ground if they already have the House) in 2028. The Senate is obviously tougher, but they certainly have the ability to net three seats between ME-2026, NC-2026, TX-2026, NC-2028, WI-2028, and various longshot opportunities.

Also the term "realistic" does not mean "probable"

[Progressive Pessimist]

2028, if 2026 goes well enough.

Maybe by then it can be a trifecta that can pursue Supreme Court reform/packing, Dc and Puerto Rico statehood, campaign finance reform, codifying Roe, creating a paid sick/family leave program, a public option, other electoral reforms, etc.

Hell, I'd settle for just one of those things.

[Zedonathin2020]

2028

[Ljube]

The things you want done are not in the interest of the people.

And by the way, I don't think it's realistic the Dems flip the Senate in 2028.

[MillennialModerate]

The things you want done are not in the interest of the people.

And by the way, I don't think it's realistic the Dems flip the Senate in 2028.

What specifically do I want done that is not in the interest of the people?

As opposed to the current agenda which you think will be in the “interest of the people”

[หมูเด้ง]

Realistic shot 2028. Probable...and with greater than 50 seats later much later.

In 2026 the Democrats have a shot of 2* GOP held seats ME and NC.

In 2028 The GOP is defending the other NC seat and WI.

So they need 3 of 4 assuming the win the presidency. All other GOP held seats are in states Trump won by over 11
 points* That sounds not bad.

But the Dems have to defend. GA 26, MI 26, GA 28, PA 28, AZ 28, NV 28

That means they can only afford to lose 1 senate race in the next 4 years.  They need 9/10 seats

I am not including states like MN and NH which were within 5 points in presidential election this time.

In 2022 they won (4 of 6 losing WI and NC) 2024 won (4 of 5) losing PA. 2020 they won 4of 5 losing NC.

So they can have a trifecta in 2028 but it is certainly not probable.


*I would count OH 2026 as potentially but as this election shows they would have a hard time defending it in 2028, so I'm not including it in my math. Without Ohio the next most competitive GOP held seat is Iowa at 13- The Dems have at least 10 seats more at risk than Iowa.  

It’s happened before. It happened the last time. It’s not as if Democrats won’t do what they need to stay competitive.

[Mr.Phips]

2028, if 2026 goes well enough.

Maybe by then it can be a trifecta that can pursue Supreme Court reform/packing, Dc and Puerto Rico statehood, campaign finance reform, codifying Roe, creating a paid sick/family leave program, a public option, other electoral reforms, etc.

Hell, I'd settle for just one of those things.

I’d say the first thing they have to pass is a law that mandates independent redistricting in every state.  They can’t afford another 2010-2012 where they get screwed so badly again.

[President Johnson]

After the 2028 election. Pick up North Carolina and Maine in 2026, and North Carolina as well as Wisconsin in 2028. Hopefully Susie isn't running for reelection, because I could see here winning even in a bad Republican midterm.

The results in the senate this year were barely good enough for a 50/50 tie in 2028. But Democrats need to defend some incumbents in vulnerable seats. It's really unfortunate Casey went down this year. But if Slotkin, Rosen and Baldwin also lost, the Democrats would be in a deep hole. Hopefully they can quickly pass DC and Purto Rico statehood then, which would give them extra seats in the senate.

[MT Treasurer]

I like how no one has entertained the idea of Rosen losing the Nevada seat in 2028 even if the party wins the Presidency. NV is clearly trending to the right, and she lucked out by Republicans only making a very late investment in that state.

For Democrats to win the Senate even in 2028, they need a clean sweep of virtually all the swing states in 2026/2028, unless they’re winning some of those deep red Trump states in 2026 (possible, but very unlikely).

If Collins runs in ME, they need to beat her.
If Kemp runs in GA, they need to beat him.
If Budd runs in NC, they need to beat him.
If NV trends even more R in 2024 & the GOP prioritizes the race this time, they still need to hold that seat.

It’s possible, but it’s certainly more difficult than winning the Senate after 2018 was because all the red state Dems are gone now.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

I like how no one has entertained the idea of Rosen losing the Nevada seat in 2028 even if the party wins the Presidency. NV is clearly trending to the right, and she lucked out by Republicans only making a very late investment in that state.

For Democrats to win the Senate even in 2028, they need a clean sweep of virtually all the swing states in 2026/2028, unless they’re winning some of those deep red Trump states in 2026 (possible, but very unlikely).

If Collins runs in ME, they need to beat her.
If Kemp runs in GA, they need to beat him.
If Budd runs in NC, they need to beat him.
If NV trends even more R in 2024 & the GOP prioritizes the race this time, they still need to hold that seat.

It’s possible, but it’s certainly more difficult than winning the Senate after 2018 was because all the red state Dems are gone now.

The problem here is that you're basically assuming the best possible case scenario for the Trump presidency, and that there won't be a single ounce of backlash.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I like how no one has entertained the idea of Rosen losing the Nevada seat in 2028 even if the party wins the Presidency. NV is clearly trending to the right, and she lucked out by Republicans only making a very late investment in that state.

For Democrats to win the Senate even in 2028, they need a clean sweep of virtually all the swing states in 2026/2028, unless they’re winning some of those deep red Trump states in 2026 (possible, but very unlikely).

If Collins runs in ME, they need to beat her.
If Kemp runs in GA, they need to beat him.
If Budd runs in NC, they need to beat him.
If NV trends even more R in 2024 & the GOP prioritizes the race this time, they still need to hold that seat.

It’s possible, but it’s certainly more difficult than winning the Senate after 2018 was because all the red state Dems are gone now.

No one has entertained the idea of Rosen losing the Nevada Senate seat in 2028 because her seat isn't up until 2030, but CCM could definitely be in danger

I agree that Dems will need close to a clean sweep of all the normal swing state Senate seats up in 2026 and 2028 to win the chamber, but I don't think that's an unreasonable task if and big *if* 2026 and 2028 are more Dem friendly years like 2018 and 2020.

I do think Dems need to find ways to make more states winnable, at least at the Senate level, because currently all the Harris states + "the big 7" only translates to 52 Senate seats - if one of the big 7 starts drifting right to the point where it's too hard to win, it makes their path to winning the Senate nearly impossible.

I think 2028 has a decent chance of being a true re-alignment election with Trump being off the ballot and Dems likely to try and redefine themselves, but it's unclear what that re-alignment would look like this far out and what it would mean at the Senate level.