Will the House Flip before 2026?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The republicans are going to have a single digit majority of maybe 6 seats, and trump has already picked 3 congressman for roles within his administration with the possibility of more. Is it possible the democrats could flip the house temporarily before 2026?

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

The republicans are going to have a single digit majority of maybe 6 seats, and trump has already picked 3 congressman for roles within his administration with the possibility of more. Is it possible the democrats could flip the house temporarily before 2026?

In realistic terms, it's possibly even worse than this. Such a narrow House majority might force moderate Rs such as Fitzpatrick and Bacon into having to expressly sign off on stuff Johnson and Trump want, or sink it and face recriminations over it. Ds will have a fair amount of bargaining power unless Rs are completely united...which poses additional risks.

[AndyHogan14]

Okay...for the sake of argument, let's say that Democrats sweep the remaining five House races (AK-AL, CA-13, CA-45, IA-1, OH-9) and end up with 217 seats. It is unlikely that they win all five, but it is, at least possible. With Matt Gaetz already resigning*, that would put the Republicans at 217 as well forcing a power-sharing agreement between Democrats and Republicans for the time being. Then, with more and more House Republicans resigning to join the Trump Administration, Democrats may end up with an abbreviated majority while there are Republican vacancies. The special elections to fill those vacancies will then be some of the most expensive special elections in American history being that they could very well decide control of the House. It is also possible for some weird things to happen if Democrats get to 215 or 216, but 217 is where we could end up with quite a bit of chaos. If Democrats get to at least 216, I will assume that the House *will* flip (at least temporarily) before 2026 and if Democrats get to 217 they may be able to flip the House and *keep* it until the end of the term.


*I suppose he could show up on January 3, vote for Speaker, and then resign again but that would put the House at 217-217 again.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

It wouldn’t shock me. The House is gonna be a mess even if the GOP technically never loses its majority though, given moderates and the loony caucus being opposed. Heck, I’m not sure that Johnson will be elected speaker come January 3rd.