NY-21: will Dems make a serious effort here?

[Spectator]

This is a seat they’ve lost a lot of ground in compared to the Obama era. Dems have a few decent people on paper in the legislature, namely Billy Jones. I wonder if he runs.

[windjammer]

I think they will try. NY Upstate is super volatile

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

They should try, but it’s not likely.

One major reason why Elise Stefanik transformed herself overnight into a groveling Trump asslicker is because her district shifted hard to the right under Trump.

Some of her vote lately may have been a personal vote, but it’s also important to note that NY-21 was made even a little bit redder than before when NY Dems redrew the map last year (for example they gave her Schoharie County). A seat designed to be an R sink is going to have trouble electing a Democrat even under favorable conditions.

[Duke of York]

yes. i could see the right Democrat winning here.

[Torie]

She won by 62 precent this time, so I don't think so.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Why not? Its winnable with Tariffmania and Gaetz.

[Averroës]

They have not made a serious effort in a long time. Good chance to push the boundaries of the coalition outward in this kind of district for a change, even if it doesn't hold beyond the special election. There won't be much organizational strength to draw from locally.

[vbfox]

NY-21 is the perfect opportunity for Dems to expand their coalition by getting a moderate D with rural and male appeal, just like when they got the two NY special elections closer during the first Trump term

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's worth at least trying to get a moral victory of an overperformance for a Democrat. We could use something like that right now.

[Splash]

I mean, it was a different district configuration and a different time, but John McHugh won with 65% of the vote in 2008 before he was appointed Secretary of the Army, and then we flipped the district with Bill Owens in a special election. Maybe we could ask him to come back for round two?

[Steve from Lambeth]

Why not? Its winnable with Tariffmania and Gaetz.

You are literally turning into a more well-thought-out iteration of olawakandi. Do you have any idea how much the king of our secular blog was convinced that reparations and student loan forgiveness would be the pivotal issues at this election?

[Panda Express]

They absolutely should. We did the same thing back in 2017 when Ossoff ran in GA-06 against Karen Handel. Ossoff did way better than previous Dems had done. While he still lost, it helped set the tone for the midterms the following year (when we finally did win that district)

[ProgressiveModerate]

They absolutely should. We did the same thing back in 2017 when Ossoff ran in GA-06 against Karen Handel. Ossoff did way better than previous Dems had done. While he still lost, it helped set the tone for the midterms the following year (when we finally did win that district)

Sure, but to be fair Trump only barely won the o9ld GA-06 - I'm pretty sure Trump carried this district by over 20% in 2024.

[Zedonathin2020]

I mean it wouldn’t hurt to try, if we managed to get that Ohio 6 special back in June within 10 without even trying, imagine what we could do in a (slightly) bluer area if we actually TRY

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

They have tons of money and nothing to lose by trying.