Why did the Nashville suburbs zoom right?

[Tekken_Guy]

Why did the suburbs of Nashville zoom so far to the right in 2024?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not really sure they really "zoomed" that hard right given the national context - places like Wilson, Cheatham, and Sumner County had relatively small swings right relative to the rest of Tennessee.

Davidson County (home to Nashville proper) likely swung right largely because of it's large non-white population. Even though Rutherford County is whiter, it also likely swung right largely because of how reliant Dems are are non-white voters in the County.

Perhaps the most interesting one is Williamson County which swung 6.3% right despite being relatively white, high income, educated and fast growing. Perhaps the Dem base in this County still skews lower propensity even if it's whiter? Perhaps it's due to self-sorting with the County attracting large numbers of wealthy Conservatives - there are very few other wealthy, educated, fast growing suburban communities like this in deep red states.

[EastOfEden]

Not really sure they really "zoomed" that hard right given the national context - places like Wilson, Cheatham, and Sumner County had relatively small swings right relative to the rest of Tennessee.

Davidson County (home to Nashville proper) likely swung right largely because of it's large non-white population. Even though Rutherford County is whiter, it also likely swung right largely because of how reliant Dems are are non-white voters in the County.

Perhaps the most interesting one is Williamson County which swung 6.3% right despite being relatively white, high income, educated and fast growing. Perhaps the Dem base in this County still skews lower propensity even if it's whiter? Perhaps it's due to self-sorting with the County attracting large numbers of wealthy Conservatives - there are very few other wealthy, educated, fast growing suburban communities like this in deep red states.

I suspect religion may play a role. Williamson might be the rare suburban area where Dobbs helps Republicans.

[RI]

Perhaps it's due to self-sorting with the County attracting large numbers of wealthy Conservatives - there are very few other wealthy, educated, fast growing suburban communities like this in deep red states.

It's this. My UMC aunt recently moved to Williamson County from Los Angeles and built a large house. Lots of that going on.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Late to the party, but let me give my local perspective:
 

I suspect religion may play a role. Williamson might be the rare suburban area where Dobbs helps Republicans.

Churches are a key part of the social fabric of Williamson County, and, while I'm not aware of many pastors endorsing Trump by name from the pulpit, many did heavily encourage the congregations to vote (while mentioning socially conservative issues).

It's a little outdated now, but in Tennessee's 2014 abortion referendum, Williamson County voted eight points to the right of the state of Tennessee, giving 57% of the vote to the pro-life side.  In a 2022 referendum on allowing pastors to serve in government (to overturn an archaic, unenforced law), Williamson County was the second most pro-pastors in government county in the state (behind tiny Haywood County).

Perhaps it's due to self-sorting with the County attracting large numbers of wealthy Conservatives - there are very few other wealthy, educated, fast growing suburban communities like this in deep red states.

It's this. My UMC aunt recently moved to Williamson County from Los Angeles and built a large house. Lots of that going on.

This is also absolutely true.  You'd be shocked at how many posts in local Facebook groups read like "looking for recommendations...we just moved from California...don't worry, we're not trying to "California" Tennessee".  Williamson County is becoming very pricey (and doesn't really want to zone for apartments except in Cool Springs), so a lot of that growth is now funneling into neighboring Maury County- which had an even larger swing to Trump.  You'd be shocked at how many West Coast transplants are in many conservative evangelical churches in the area.

To the point about Maury County- it used to be a rural/small town Middle Tennessee community.  In 2000, its 23K voters split nearly evenly between Bush and Gore (voting for Bush by three points).  This year, it voted 72-27 for Trump, but that's only half the story.  Over 52K people voted in Maury County in 2024, and it's very much an outer suburban county today.  The City of Spring Hill, which straddles the border between Williamson and Maury Counties, had a population of just 1400 in 1990 and 7700 in 2000.  Today, it's estimated to be a city of nearly 60,000 residents.  Not all transplants from blue states are blue voters themselves, and we're absolutely seeing it in this area.

Some final thoughts: I'll know more when I see a precinct map, but I think both of these played some role.  I'll also note something that surprised me a bit anecdotally.  Some people who seemed ambivalent or reluctant to talk about politics in 2020 seemed more than willing to say that they were voting for Trump in 2024.  Maybe some of those people ultimately did quietly vote for Trump last time, but it felt different this time.  Even when I did that Instagram poll, there were some people that would normally never vote on a political one who told me they were voting for Trump.  Maybe it's just that Harris was perceived as more hostile to evangelical values than Biden was, but this was a bit of a surprise (in part because Trump's 2020 campaign should have been better suited to evangelical Christians than his 2024 campaign).

I didn't expect a 2:1 margin for Trump in Williamson County before the election (though I did believe he would stay over 60% and that it wouldn't take another 9 point swing left), but, in hindsight, maybe I should have.  All of those factors were there, and the self-sorting of people was very clear.  The anecdotal evidence pointed in his direction (from a giant golf cart Trump parade in a wealthy subdivision to lots of Trump gear at the Downtown Franklin Pumpkinfest in late October to my personal conversations with people).

[Tekken_Guy]

Late to the party, but let me give my local perspective:
 

I suspect religion may play a role. Williamson might be the rare suburban area where Dobbs helps Republicans.

Churches are a key part of the social fabric of Williamson County, and, while I'm not aware of many pastors endorsing Trump by name from the pulpit, many did heavily encourage the congregations to vote (while mentioning socially conservative issues).

It's a little outdated now, but in Tennessee's 2014 abortion referendum, Williamson County voted eight points to the right of the state of Tennessee, giving 57% of the vote to the pro-life side.  In a 2022 referendum on allowing pastors to serve in government (to overturn an archaic, unenforced law), Williamson County was the second most pro-pastors in government county in the state (behind tiny Haywood County).

Perhaps it's due to self-sorting with the County attracting large numbers of wealthy Conservatives - there are very few other wealthy, educated, fast growing suburban communities like this in deep red states.

It's this. My UMC aunt recently moved to Williamson County from Los Angeles and built a large house. Lots of that going on.

This is also absolutely true.  You'd be shocked at how many posts in local Facebook groups read like "looking for recommendations...we just moved from California...don't worry, we're not trying to "California" Tennessee".  Williamson County is becoming very pricey (and doesn't really want to zone for apartments except in Cool Springs), so a lot of that growth is now funneling into neighboring Maury County- which had an even larger swing to Trump.  You'd be shocked at how many West Coast transplants are in many conservative evangelical churches in the area.

To the point about Maury County- it used to be a rural/small town Middle Tennessee community.  In 2000, its 23K voters split nearly evenly between Bush and Gore (voting for Bush by three points).  This year, it voted 72-27 for Trump, but that's only half the story.  Over 52K people voted in Maury County in 2024, and it's very much an outer suburban county today.  The City of Spring Hill, which straddles the border between Williamson and Maury Counties, had a population of just 1400 in 1990 and 7700 in 2000.  Today, it's estimated to be a city of nearly 60,000 residents.  Not all transplants from blue states are blue voters themselves, and we're absolutely seeing it in this area.

Some final thoughts: I'll know more when I see a precinct map, but I think both of these played some role.  I'll also note something that surprised me a bit anecdotally.  Some people who seemed ambivalent or reluctant to talk about politics in 2020 seemed more than willing to say that they were voting for Trump in 2024.  Maybe some of those people ultimately did quietly vote for Trump last time, but it felt different this time.  Even when I did that Instagram poll, there were some people that would normally never vote on a political one who told me they were voting for Trump.  Maybe it's just that Harris was perceived as more hostile to evangelical values than Biden was, but this was a bit of a surprise (in part because Trump's 2020 campaign should have been better suited to evangelical Christians than his 2024 campaign).

I didn't expect a 2:1 margin for Trump in Williamson County before the election (though I did believe he would stay over 60% and that it wouldn't take another 9 point swing left), but, in hindsight, maybe I should have.  All of those factors were there, and the self-sorting of people was very clear.  The anecdotal evidence pointed in his direction (from a giant golf cart Trump parade in a wealthy subdivision to lots of Trump gear at the Downtown Franklin Pumpkinfest in late October to my personal conversations with people).

Do you think the GOP will ever get back above 70 here one day?