Will Susan Collins be re-elected?

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

We now have 3 consecutive midterms at this point where the Presidents party lost every Senate seat up that the President lost 2 years prior. Collins is very unlikely to win.

[MarkD]

Despite the fact that she recently announced that she "plans" on running for reelection, "plans" like that can be changed, and once in a while they are.

[New World Man]

She will either lose in the primary or the general. She's finished.

[Mr. Smith]

Despite the fact that she recently announced that she "plans" on running for reelection, "plans" like that can be changed, and once in a while they are.

Like with Manchin.

[MT Treasurer]

We now have 3 consecutive midterms at this point where the Presidents party lost every Senate seat up that the President lost 2 years prior. Collins is very unlikely to win.

We now have 5 consecutive presidential elections at this point where no Republican managed to win a Senate race against a non-corruption-tainted Democrat in a state that was carried by the Democratic presidential candidate. Collins is very unlikel-

The one exception to this, twice (2008 & 2020): Susan Collins.

(You also overstate how "easy" it was for Republicans to defeat all those red state Democrats in 2014: Hagan and Begich only lost very narrowly, and even those red state Democrats who went down to much bigger defeats like Landrieu and Pryor still substantially outperformed Romney in their respective states.)

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Despite the fact that she recently announced that she "plans" on running for reelection, "plans" like that can be changed, and once in a while they are.

I really don't see her not running especially after announcing. I can tell she really enjoys the job and she's still young enough for at least 2 more terms.

[Ljube]

Despite the fact that she recently announced that she "plans" on running for reelection, "plans" like that can be changed, and once in a while they are.

I really don't see her not running especially after announcing. I can tell she really enjoys the job and she's still young enough for at least 2 more terms.

And she is the best senator.
Moderate, consensus building, rational.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

There is no upcoming Kavanaugh hearing, or Trump impeachment trial (both of which she survived in 2020 already), for her to get blame on. Abortion is essentially legal in Maine as well. With a 53 seat majority she is going to get plenty of opportunities to vote against Trump's more controversial appointments and policies. I've also been told she gets a lot of pork and results for Maine too. When running against an incumbent Senator, you need a rationale to vote against them. Susan Collins with her 50% Trump voting record will be very difficult to dislodge. MEGOP should nominate a decent candidate for governor though, because a Mastriano type figure leading the ticket could absolutely drag her down.

[riverwalk7]

Ticket splitting tends to be higher in midterms and midterm electorates tend to really reward moderate R types, so I think Collins is favored to hold on. Maine will probably have a bluer environment, but even if the environment is D +16, Collins outran Trump by 17 in 2020, and the split is likely significantly bigger with the midterm electorate.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

I think it starts as a pure tossup, but I'd never bet against her. This could be an even tougher fight than 2020 for her, though.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Despite the fact that she recently announced that she "plans" on running for reelection, "plans" like that can be changed, and once in a while they are.

I really don't see her not running especially after announcing. I can tell she really enjoys the job and she's still young enough for at least 2 more terms.

Susan Collins is probably the type to run again and again until she croaks or can't actually run for another term for other health reasons.

[Zenobiyl]

We now have 3 consecutive midterms at this point where the Presidents party lost every Senate seat up that the President lost 2 years prior. Collins is very unlikely to win.

We now have 5 consecutive presidential elections at this point where no Republican managed to win a Senate race against a non-corruption-tainted Democrat in a state that was carried by the Democratic presidential candidate. Collins is very unlikel-

The one exception to this, twice (2008 & 2020): Susan Collins.

(You also overstate how "easy" it was for Republicans to defeat all those red state Democrats in 2014: Hagan and Begich only lost very narrowly, and even those red state Democrats who went down to much bigger defeats like Landrieu and Pryor still substantially outperformed Romney in their respective states.)

Polarization has grown since the 2010s, and there’s a lot more to attack Collins on with Dobbs and Trump in office. She’s a proven overperformer, but even her last win was a big decline. No more room to fall.

[henster]

I think there's a 50/50 chance Golden runs. He changed his mind on supporting an assault weapons ban which was a huge risk for him in his district so he can change his mind on turning against Collins. Trump going off the rails and Collins going along with it could be enough to compel him to run. 

[New World Man]

If Collins votes for Trump's agenda,she's done.
If she votes against it,she will be defeated in a primary,

[dkxdjy]

Strictly from a personal survival point of view I think it absolutely would be better for Golden to run for something statewide - the state is 15 points bluer than the second district, almost no amount of personal branding can overcome that big of a number these days, plus his districtwide appeal should still at least carry a bit over to a statewide run

[dkxdjy]

Ticket splitting tends to be higher in midterms and midterm electorates tend to really reward moderate R types, so I think Collins is favored to hold on. Maine will probably have a bluer environment, but even if the environment is D +16, Collins outran Trump by 17 in 2020, and the split is likely significantly bigger with the midterm electorate.

The 17 point number (and Collins's 8 point victory) is a bit inflated due to RCV not being done - in a head to head it would've been closer

[President Johnson]

Is she running again?

I think it depends on her opponent. She managed to survive in 2020, but I can't imagine it gets better for her. I guess the election would be close one way or the other.

[riverwalk7]

Ticket splitting tends to be higher in midterms and midterm electorates tend to really reward moderate R types, so I think Collins is favored to hold on. Maine will probably have a bluer environment, but even if the environment is D +16, Collins outran Trump by 17 in 2020, and the split is likely significantly bigger with the midterm electorate.

The 17 point number (and Collins's 8 point victory) is a bit inflated due to RCV not being done - in a head to head it would've been closer

Say 2/3 of Savage voters ranked a second choice, breaking Gideon 3-1, and 1/2 of Linn voters ranked a second choice, breaking Collins 2-1 (Linn was MAGA and was at the Capitol in January 6). This gives a total vote tally of 428911 to 369764, or about 53.7% - 46.3%. Collins would still have won by 7.4% with this set of assumptions, still a 16.4% outperformance.

Moreover, if we assume that 2/3 of Libertarian/Green voters ranked a second choice in the Presidential, breaking for Biden 2-1 overall (seems reasonable to me), this puts Biden's margin at closer to 9.7%, giving Collins a 17% outperformance.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think there's a 50/50 chance Golden runs. He changed his mind on supporting an assault weapons ban which was a huge risk for him in his district so he can change his mind on turning against Collins. Trump going off the rails and Collins going along with it could be enough to compel him to run. 

Golden might even just be tired of all the narrow wins he has to keep pulling off.

[Spectator]

I think there's a 50/50 chance Golden runs. He changed his mind on supporting an assault weapons ban which was a huge risk for him in his district so he can change his mind on turning against Collins. Trump going off the rails and Collins going along with it could be enough to compel him to run. 

Golden might even just be tired of all the narrow wins he has to keep pulling off.

You would think that would be a motivator. Also, this would be arguably his easiest path to the Senate--the DSCC would clear the field for him against Collins, whereas in an open seat race, doesn't much matter who the nominee is.

[New World Man]

Not sure,does Maine have a good bench besides Golden? Pingree is older and Mills the governor is term limited.

[dkxdjy]

Agree that Troy Jackson (Maine senate president, logger, from far north Allagash) seems like another potential good candidate for Ds for statewide office as well

[MT Treasurer]

Polarization has grown since the 2010s

No, blue states were already very "polarized" / unwilling to send Republicans to the Senate in 2008, 2014, and 2020, yet she was the one blue state Republican to actually win reelection in those years/dramatically overperform the polls in those cycles.

Also, if Golden were to run, that House seat might be gone for Dems, and given how closely divided the chamber is, the party would not want to take that risk unless they really thought only Golden could beat Collins or that he’d start out favored for Senate.

[Tekken_Guy]

Polarization has grown since the 2010s

No, blue states were already very "polarized" / unwilling to send Republicans to the Senate in 2008, 2014, and 2020, yet she was the one blue state Republican to actually win reelection in those years/dramatically overperform the polls in those cycles.

Also, if Golden were to run, that House seat might be gone for Dems, and given how closely divided the chamber is, the party would not want to take that risk unless they really thought only Golden could beat Collins or that he’d start out favored for Senate.

Troy Jackson could easily replace Golden in his house seat.

[MargieCat]

Any chance Golden runs for governor?