Will Susan Collins be re-elected?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/DISivak/status/1857130128909746300

[หมูเด้ง]

https://twitter.com/DISivak/status/1857130128909746300

The last D wave she ran in was 2008 and she was lucky because there was a crapload of other targets.

[here2view]

I don't think so.

She got 50.98% in 2020, if 2026 is anything like 2018 I think she loses. Tilt D, maybe Lean D if Golden runs.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

She’ll lose regardless of what Golden does

[New World Man]

She'll lose in the general or primary. Either way she's done.

[Existing in the context]

Yep she going lose this time

[Mr. Smith]

She's either retiring ala Joe Manchin, or getting re-elected.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Democrats need to prop up whatever MAGA tries to primary her for not voting for Gaetz.

[Zedonathin2020]

No, and the fact that some people I have seen are calling this LIKELY R, let alone LEAN R, is just baffling

As we have seen this year, crossover appeal from BOTH sides has been completely demolished, and Collins has been slowly destroying any remaining amount she has over the years

The only reason she won in 2020 is because downballot Dems underperformed nationwide

[DaleCooper]

I'm getting more confident that she will lose. Frankly, she may have lost if she was up in 2022 instead. Idpol is in the process of getting axed from the Democratic platform and I think the backlash against Trump will be more severe when the focus is on angles other than race.

[South Dakota Democrat]

No, and the fact that some people I have seen are calling this LIKELY R, let alone LEAN R, is just baffling

As we have seen this year, crossover appeal from BOTH sides has been completely demolished, and Collins has been slowly destroying any remaining amount she has over the years

The only reason she won in 2020 is because downballot Dems underperformed nationwide

What's your theory on why down ballot Dems underperformed in 2020?  Was it because a big Biden victory was expected and people wanted to put a check on him, or a different reason?

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

No, and the fact that some people I have seen are calling this LIKELY R, let alone LEAN R, is just baffling

As we have seen this year, crossover appeal from BOTH sides has been completely demolished, and Collins has been slowly destroying any remaining amount she has over the years

The only reason she won in 2020 is because downballot Dems underperformed nationwide

What's your theory on why down ballot Dems underperformed in 2020?  Was it because a big Biden victory was expected and people wanted to put a check on him, or a different reason?

Ftr a big Biden win was only expected by super tuned in people who watched polls and such obsessively. Even in the same polls where Biden was leading in preference picks by double digits nationally, he was generally outright trailing in predicted winner picks.

[E-Dawg]

I'd say Golden is a favorite against her if he runs (he has as much cross appeal as she does), but against any other Democrat Collins probably will win unless the midterm is historically bad for Trump.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Unless it’s Golden she is very underrated. Jon Tester massively outran Harris this year. Maine isn’t that solidly blue. She would need to outrun Trump by a whole lot less, in an elastic state that likes RINOs. And Trump will not be on the ticket, which makes things much easier. The size of the GOP Senate majority means that unlike Manchin/Tester/Brown, they don’t need her vote and she can bolster her anti-Trump credentials. I think Dems have a way better chance in NC than Maine

[SWE]

She'll convince the drooling morons in her state that she's still a moderate by casting a futile vote against Matt Gaetz and then win reelection by a comfortable margin

[coloradocowboi]

Democrats need to prop up whatever MAGA tries to primary her for not voting for Gaetz.

No we need to stop doing this and win fair and square.

She'll convince the drooling morons in her state that she's still a moderate by casting a futile vote against Matt Gaetz and then win reelection by a comfortable margin

I get the cynicism, but it won't be enough to save her from really serious questions about her role in Dobbs. Might even lose my right to marry by then at this rate, and if it's because of Kavanaugh she's f-d.

[QuietlyCalm]

Collins hasn't been the same since her twin Olympia Snowe retired in 2013. She seemed like more of a genuine moderate back then. Maybe there's strength in numbers and it was easier to be due to that. She's tried to form a similar partnership with Lisa Murkowski but it's never quite clicked to the same extent.

Come to think of it, there must be a possibility that Snowe endorses her opponent in 2026.

[New World Man]

She's finished. One way or another.

[Ljube]

She's running again. She filed for reelection.

We'll see, but I think she wins again, because she will be an independent voice in the Senate, and it will be quite visible during the Trump administration.

[dkxdjy]

For some reference I think Maine is something like D+7 in an even national environment and Tester outperformed by 13% in Montana this year, so I think even in an average out-party midterm (which is maybe something like D+5) she still has a very good shot at surviving. The candidate that Ds nominate will be a very important factor

[ProgressiveModerate]

For some reference I think Maine is something like D+7 in an even national environment and Tester outperformed by 13% in Montana this year, so I think even in an average out-party midterm (which is maybe something like D+5) she still has a very good shot at surviving. The candidate that Ds nominate will be a very important factor

Yeah the Dem candidate and messaging will matter a lot.

I think one place where Gideon went wrong in 2020 is she spent all her time attacking Collins but never really defined herself.

[henster]

Outside of Mills and Golden the Dem bench in ME is shockingly weak. Maybe its a function of Maine not having elected row offices but Dems are probably going to have to run another state lawmaker here.

[dkxdjy]

How strong actually is this relationship between Golden and Collins? I understand that Golden wouldn't want to run against her, but I also can't imagine he would want to continue running in ME-2 until the end of the decade (especially given that he won by <1% this time). Plus Golden is much younger so it's probably personally more important for him to stay relevant. Maybe he would run for governor?
 
I feel like Golden probably would be favored if he ended up choosing to run, but at the end it still is his decision and plus we don't fully know what the next two years are going to look like

[dkxdjy]

Outside of Mills and Golden the Dem bench in ME is shockingly weak. Maybe its a function of Maine not having elected row offices but Dems are probably going to have to run another state lawmaker here.

Think this is just because Maine is a small state and also the lack of elected row offices as you mentioned - I don't think it's as if the Maine R bench beyond Collins is particularly strong either

[Spectator]

Collins hasn't been the same since her twin Olympia Snowe retired in 2013. She seemed like more of a genuine moderate back then. Maybe there's strength in numbers and it was easier to be due to that. She's tried to form a similar partnership with Lisa Murkowski but it's never quite clicked to the same extent.

Come to think of it, there must be a possibility that Snowe endorses her opponent in 2026.

There were rumors back in the day that Collins and Snowe didn’t like each other. Doubt Snowe would outright endorse a Dem though. She never did against Trump.