Will Susan Collins be re-elected?

[Spectator]

I think people are underestimating partisanship here in a Trump midterm. Collins got about 51% in 2020, even though the margin wasn't close, most of Lisa Savage's vote would've gone to Gideon in RCV. And now Collins can be directly tied to Dobbs (if that is a salient issue in 2026, which it will be if any federal abortion restrictions are entertained).

I don't think it's impossible for her to hold on, but I think she'll have an uphill battle. I'm starting at a Tilt D/Lean D for this race. The biggest issue for Dems is that there isn't a standout option. Golden is the most prolific, but I don't know if he will make it out of a primary. We'll see.

The nomination is Golden’s if the Dems prod him into running. Make no mistake, an ideological primary against him would go nowhere when Dems are more focused on electability. In an open seat race, that goes out the window, obviously.

[Compuzled_One]

I think people are underestimating partisanship here in a Trump midterm. Collins got about 51% in 2020, even though the margin wasn't close, most of Lisa Savage's vote would've gone to Gideon in RCV. And now Collins can be directly tied to Dobbs (if that is a salient issue in 2026, which it will be if any federal abortion restrictions are entertained).

I don't think it's impossible for her to hold on, but I think she'll have an uphill battle. I'm starting at a Tilt D/Lean D for this race. The biggest issue for Dems is that there isn't a standout option. Golden is the most prolific, but I don't know if he will make it out of a primary. We'll see.

Basically this, I think it begins as Tilt D.

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

Wasn't Susan Collins' 2020 race closer than it seemed? Like I guess she won by like 8 but didn't like 5% go to a left-wing third party challenger?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think she can lose to Golden in a Trump midterm.

Not to mention that her vote for Kavanaugh has now yielded the Dobbs decision. In off-years that's still going to be a potent issue for Democrats.

[It's Time.]

Collins won because ME-02 put up huge numbers for her in 2020. Running Jared Golden would be the best way to unseat her but he would have to be convinced.

That said, maybe Collins pulls a Pat Toomey and decides to retire.

[CentristRepublican]

Isn't she likely to retire?

She wants to die in the Senate and she's only 71. She probably wants to do 3 more terms

Is this just a guess or is there reason to believe this?

Also she looks pretty old even for 71.

[CentristRepublican]

I think people are underestimating partisanship here in a Trump midterm. Collins got about 51% in 2020, even though the margin wasn't close, most of Lisa Savage's vote would've gone to Gideon in RCV. And now Collins can be directly tied to Dobbs (if that is a salient issue in 2026, which it will be if any federal abortion restrictions are entertained).

I don't think it's impossible for her to hold on, but I think she'll have an uphill battle. I'm starting at a Tilt D/Lean D for this race. The biggest issue for Dems is that there isn't a standout option. Golden is the most prolific, but I don't know if he will make it out of a primary. We'll see.

The nomination is Golden’s if the Dems prod him into running. Make no mistake, an ideological primary against him would go nowhere when Dems are more focused on electability. In an open seat race, that goes out the window, obviously.

Perhaps this is what pushes him to run against Collins in 2026, just because he's ultimately perpetually on borrowed time in ME-02 and has little chance in an open Dem primary.

Golden running against Collins, fwiw, would give strong vibes of what ND-SEN 2010 could've been: a longtime electoral titan from the minority party faces an equally strong challenger from the other side in a wave year for the latter's party. Conrad is the Democratic Collins; Hoeven is the Republican Golden. And perhaps, much like how Conrad ultimately decided against running in an uphill campaign, Collins will make the same calculation.

[DaleCooper]

Golden is really the only one I can think of that would be favored to beat Collins as of this point. If Trump proves unpopular and the economy goes to sh**t, then Collins could lose to a worse challenger. You need to make a case beyond #resist against Collins. You need to attack her as a career politician who’s spent 30 years in DC.

The big mistake Democrats have been making the past 8 years--which has been disguised by the fact that until 2024 they've achieved enough success to meet their goals--is that they are pandering to people who are already certain to vote and certain to vote for them. A #resist liberal is probably the highest propensity voter in any election at this point, even more than elderly evangelicals. The resist libs will come and vote for whoever runs against Collins, or any other candidate for that matter, so Democrats need to run campaigns that speak to persuadable voters. The median Maine voter in 2026 probably would vote against Collins but they won't do it if it's just some Democrat promising to take the opposite stance of Donald Trump on every issue.

You can apply similar logic to pretty much every election Democrats have blown since 2016.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

If she could win in 2020 with Trump at the top of the ticket I see no reason why she couldn’t win now.

[Ljube]

One thing is certain. If the polls show her losing, don't trust the polls.

[Cape Verde]

Considering how Trump performed very well in Maine during the Republican primary, compared to neighboring NH, I am surprised that Maine did not swing much this election. With Trump's 2% nationwide popular vote victory, I expected Maine to be roughly 3% Harris victory. I think Collins might lose in a Trump midterm year.

[CityofSinners]

How much voters care about abortion rights will play a big role. Collins did vote for Kavanaugh.

Her 2020 performance was not that impressive compared to previous elections. Toss-up for now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also is it a given she's going to run again, and if she does that she'll get past the primary?

It seems like she'll have quite a fine line to walk these next 2 years - not sure how well she'll be able to pull it off.

[coloradocowboi]

Also is it a given she's going to run again, and if she does that she'll get past the primary?

It seems like she'll have quite a fine line to walk these next 2 years - not sure how well she'll be able to pull it off.

Isn't her health pretty poor?

[Spectator]

Also is it a given she's going to run again, and if she does that she'll get past the primary?

It seems like she'll have quite a fine line to walk these next 2 years - not sure how well she'll be able to pull it off.

Isn't her health pretty poor?

Where did you hear that? Her parents both lived very old, I think 90s. She's probably a lifer unless Dems get their sh**t together in 2026.

[coloradocowboi]

Also is it a given she's going to run again, and if she does that she'll get past the primary?

It seems like she'll have quite a fine line to walk these next 2 years - not sure how well she'll be able to pull it off.

Isn't her health pretty poor?

Where did you hear that? Her parents both lived very old, I think 90s. She's probably a lifer unless Dems get their sh**t together in 2026.

She has a visible tremor and spasmodic dysphonia. Myriad conditions, including some that are pretty benign could cause this, but I've never really heard what her deal is. It certainly will complicate campaigning in the social media era.

I dk enough about Maine to comment intelligently, but I think she would be an underdog period in a Trump midterm when highly educated Mainers are guaranteed to turn out at really high rates. If Democrats nominate a populist like Troy Jackson or Jared Golden (who IIRC once said he would never run against Collins), I don't think she could possibly win.

[Talleyrand]

Collins has had a the tremor for many years and is otherwise quite athletic. If she leaves office soon, her physical health won't be the reason.

[New World Man]

Would Trump try to have her primaried?

[Talleyrand]

Would Trump try to have her primaried?

This would only boost her general election chances.

[Talleyrand]

Collins's opposition to Gaetz out of the gate shows why she is a master of the craft.

[John Fettercuck]

I will believe she loses when the votes are counted.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

My bet would be she doesn't run again.

[DrScholl]

Probably not. She's had only one other midterm under a Republican President and the conditions were especially favorable then. If this second Trump term ends up as terrible as it is shaping up to be then Collins is done for.

[MarkD]

Option 3: she won't run again.
I've seen a number of US Senators retire at an age younger than she is now.

[Pericles]

Option 3: she won't run again.
I've seen a number of US Senators retire at an age younger than she is now.

Agreed, that's almost the default option for someone like her facing a wave election.