Will Susan Collins be re-elected?

[Spectator]

Polarization has grown since the 2010s

No, blue states were already very "polarized" / unwilling to send Republicans to the Senate in 2008, 2014, and 2020, yet she was the one blue state Republican to actually win reelection in those years/dramatically overperform the polls in those cycles.

Also, if Golden were to run, that House seat might be gone for Dems, and given how closely divided the chamber is, the party would not want to take that risk unless they really thought only Golden could beat Collins or that he’d start out favored for Senate.

If Dems are relying on ME-02 for a House majority, they have a lot of other problems. I doubt there’s any Democrat in DC aside from Hakeem Jeffries that wouldn’t trade off ME-02 for that senate seat.

[henster]

Any chance Golden runs for governor?

I think Golden would have a tougher time getting through a primary for Governor as opposed to Senator.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Any chance Golden runs for governor?

I think Golden would have a tougher time getting through a primary for Governor as opposed to Senator.

Strongly disagree

[Spectator]

Any chance Golden runs for governor?

I think Golden would have a tougher time getting through a primary for Governor as opposed to Senator.

Strongly disagree

Why? i think the logic is that the DSCC would clear the field for Golden if he is widely seen as the only Democrat who can beat Collins. Whereas you obviously don't need Golden to win a gubernatorial race, so Dems can afford to nominate someone a lot more progressive.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Any chance Golden runs for governor?

I think Golden would have a tougher time getting through a primary for Governor as opposed to Senator.

Strongly disagree

Why? i think the logic is that the DSCC would clear the field for Golden if he is widely seen as the only Democrat who can beat Collins. Whereas you obviously don't need Golden to win a gubernatorial race, so Dems can afford to nominate someone a lot more progressive.

Golden isn’t the only Dem who can beat Collins

[Spectator]

Any chance Golden runs for governor?

I think Golden would have a tougher time getting through a primary for Governor as opposed to Senator.

Strongly disagree

Why? i think the logic is that the DSCC would clear the field for Golden if he is widely seen as the only Democrat who can beat Collins. Whereas you obviously don't need Golden to win a gubernatorial race, so Dems can afford to nominate someone a lot more progressive.

Golden isn’t the only Dem who can beat Collins

Debatable. Maybe Mills can beat her too. We'll see when the first polls come out. Anyway, that's the argument that Golden would be all but assured the Senate nomination whereas a gubernatorial primary would be much harder for him to win.

[It's Time.]

Any chance Golden runs for governor?

I think Golden would have a tougher time getting through a primary for Governor as opposed to Senator.

Strongly disagree

Why? i think the logic is that the DSCC would clear the field for Golden if he is widely seen as the only Democrat who can beat Collins. Whereas you obviously don't need Golden to win a gubernatorial race, so Dems can afford to nominate someone a lot more progressive.

Golden isn’t the only Dem who can beat Collins

He has the highest chance of beating Collins by far.

You underestimate how much of an electoral juggernaut Collins is. She outran Trump by 20% in 2020, and won in a landslide. 2020 had the least ticket-splitting of any election in political history and she still massively overperformed Trump. This was after she was written off as DOA by almost everyone and was down in essentially every poll.

It would take a truly exceptional candidate like Golden to have a good shot at beating her.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Any chance Golden runs for governor?

I think Golden would have a tougher time getting through a primary for Governor as opposed to Senator.

Strongly disagree

Why? i think the logic is that the DSCC would clear the field for Golden if he is widely seen as the only Democrat who can beat Collins. Whereas you obviously don't need Golden to win a gubernatorial race, so Dems can afford to nominate someone a lot more progressive.

Golden isn’t the only Dem who can beat Collins

He has the highest chance of beating Collins by far.

You underestimate how much of an electoral juggernaut Collins is. She outran Trump by 20% in 2020, and won in a landslide. 2020 had the least ticket-splitting of any election in political history and she still massively overperformed Trump. This was after she was written off as DOA by almost everyone and was down in essentially every poll.

It would take a truly exceptional candidate like Golden to have a good shot at beating her.

~3% is not a landslide

We can absolutely beat Collins without running a DINO

[Zenobiyl]

Any chance Golden runs for governor?

I think Golden would have a tougher time getting through a primary for Governor as opposed to Senator.

Strongly disagree

Why? i think the logic is that the DSCC would clear the field for Golden if he is widely seen as the only Democrat who can beat Collins. Whereas you obviously don't need Golden to win a gubernatorial race, so Dems can afford to nominate someone a lot more progressive.

Golden isn’t the only Dem who can beat Collins

He has the highest chance of beating Collins by far.

You underestimate how much of an electoral juggernaut Collins is. She outran Trump by 20% in 2020, and won in a landslide. 2020 had the least ticket-splitting of any election in political history and she still massively overperformed Trump. This was after she was written off as DOA by almost everyone and was down in essentially every poll.

It would take a truly exceptional candidate like Golden to have a good shot at beating her.

Her over-performance is more like 6-7% when you account for RCV transfer, seeing as a liberal third party candidate siphoned off a lot of democrat votes in 2020. And while she’s a strong candidate so far, she’s never been on the ballot post-Dobbs.

Golden would have the best chance for sure, but I wouldn’t even give a generic D worse than 50/50 odds of winning this seat.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

The thing about Collins that makes me think this isn't as simple as "nominate someone other than Sara Gideon' is that she got 44% in ME-01, which are absolutely insane numbers for a Republican, and that's why I think someone like Troy Jackson isn't an easy fix either. Democrats need someone who can appeal to the reasons for her overperformances in both ME-01 and ME-02, which were for different reasons, and this person needs to make the case to both groups of voters that they are better for them than Collins is. She also has genuinely good constituent services unlike several other long-time incumbents who went down recently like Bob Casey or Bill Nelson. In fact, her constituent services and the fact that she remains accessible even after 30 years is a lot of the reason that the line that "Collins has changed" fell flat among the electorate.

[Spectator]

Any chance Golden runs for governor?

I think Golden would have a tougher time getting through a primary for Governor as opposed to Senator.

Strongly disagree

Why? i think the logic is that the DSCC would clear the field for Golden if he is widely seen as the only Democrat who can beat Collins. Whereas you obviously don't need Golden to win a gubernatorial race, so Dems can afford to nominate someone a lot more progressive.

Golden isn’t the only Dem who can beat Collins

He has the highest chance of beating Collins by far.

You underestimate how much of an electoral juggernaut Collins is. She outran Trump by 20% in 2020, and won in a landslide. 2020 had the least ticket-splitting of any election in political history and she still massively overperformed Trump. This was after she was written off as DOA by almost everyone and was down in essentially every poll.

It would take a truly exceptional candidate like Golden to have a good shot at beating her.

Her over-performance is more like 6-7% when you account for RCV transfer, seeing as a liberal third party candidate siphoned off a lot of democrat votes in 2020. And while she’s a strong candidate so far, she’s never been on the ballot post-Dobbs.

Golden would have the best chance for sure, but I wouldn’t even give a generic D worse than 50/50 odds of winning this seat.

I would. You need an affirmative reason to throw Collins out beyond #resist. Not many other Dems aside from Golden and maybe Jackson or Mills can make that argument. Thank Collins for her service, but say after 30 years it's time for someone new. Say you will not be a partisan hack (which Golden can credibly do). Because the idiot voters of Maine pride themselves on someone who is an "independent" and you can't beat the queen of fake independence unless you have the king of fake independence running.

[Aurelius2]

I'm going to go against the grain and say no - I think the situation with her and Kavanaugh could come back to bite her. But that still requires Democrats to campaign intelligently against her, which they haven't really proven they have the discipline to do.