Will Susan Collins be re-elected?

[Talleyrand]

I think Collins is in an extremely strong position for several reasons.

1. She is going to chair the Appropropriarions Committee. This will allow her to funnel more money back home than ever before. The local press will give her a lot of positive coverage.

2. Rs have a 53-47 majority so her vote will rarely be decisive. She can cast meaningless votes against unpopular policies/nominees without torpedoing them. This will endear her to persuadable voters without angering right-wingers.

3. Maine still has a strong ticket-splitting culture. Golden outran Harris by 10 points this year. Many Rs won in Harris seats in the state legislature. Collins could easily outperform Trump by 7 or more points.

4. Maine Democrats have a terrible bench. Golden would be their strongest candidate, but he will pass on this race since he used to work for Collins. If does run, he will he pilloried as inauthentic.

Her victory may not be especially close.

[wbrocks67]

Isn't Pingree really the only person who could credibly challenge her?

[Talleyrand]

Isn't Pingree really the only person who could credibly challenge her?

No? She represents the liberal southern part of the state and would struggle in the rural north. She'll also be 71 in 2026.

Not to mention she already ran against Collins in 2002 and lost by 16 points.

[wbrocks67]

Isn't Pingree really the only person who could credibly challenge her?

No? She represents the liberal southern part of the state and would struggle in the rural north. She'll also be 71 in 2026.

Not to mention she already ran against Collins in 2002 and lost by 16 points.

I was just asking... no need to get an attitude...

[Talleyrand]

No attitude in my post- sorry it came across that way. I was just wondering if there was something that made you think Pingree was strong in particular. Based on your wording, it seems like you had a reason to believe that.  

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Yeah, I don't buy that Golden would run against Collins. That would look way too partisan for him. I'm sure he'd love a Senate seat that's a bit safer and doesn't require him to run in an uphill battle every 2 years. If he did run against her, maaaybe he could win, but only if Dems don't cross over for Collins at nearly the rate ME-02 Republicans cross over for him.

Angus King should've retired this year - Golden probably would've gone for his seat.

Collins's 2020 victory appears a bit bigger than it really was given that she got 51% and RCV wasn't calculated, but if it was, Gideon probably only would've lost by 2-3%. So in an unfavorable midterm environment, she could lose, but I wouldn't bet against it right now. Mainers don't really care about how their vote translates to partisan control of Congress.

The easiest way to win the seat is for Collins to retire. She's getting old, but early 70s is hardly retirement age for a Senator. I can see her wanting to be a lifer - she seems to enjoy the job and take it seriously. She has never missed a single vote, ever, in her nearly 30 years in the Senate.

[Sir Mohamed]

Isn't she likely to retire?

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Isn't she likely to retire?

She wants to die in the Senate and she's only 71. She probably wants to do 3 more terms

[ProgressiveModerate]

Isn't Pingree really the only person who could credibly challenge her?

No? She represents the liberal southern part of the state and would struggle in the rural north. She'll also be 71 in 2026.

Not to mention she already ran against Collins in 2002 and lost by 16 points.

To be fair just running up the numbers in ME-01 may be enough - if she could get ME-01 to D+20 then Collins could win ME-02 by as much as R+20 and still lose.

Feel like there’s a lot of unknowns in this race this far out and anything from Collins + 10 to D + 10 wouldn’t shock me. There’s a good chance this ends up being like MT-Sen/OH-Sen this cycle where Collins has a strong overperformance but still loses given the national environment - Maine was like 8 points to the left of the nation this cycle (Presidentially) so if it is a D+5 environment she needs a lot of crossover splitting.

[These birds not meant to fly alone]

Yes, she is uniquely positioned to win re-election in her state. She reminds me a bit of my congressman, Brian Fitzpatrick, who probably could not win an election anywhere else in PA.

[Fancyarcher]

Isn't Pingree really the only person who could credibly challenge her?

No? She represents the liberal southern part of the state and would struggle in the rural north. She'll also be 71 in 2026.

Not to mention she already ran against Collins in 2002 and lost by 16 points.

To be fair just running up the numbers in ME-01 may be enough - if she could get ME-01 to D+20 then Collins could win ME-02 by as much as R+20 and still lose.

Feel like there’s a lot of unknowns in this race this far out and anything from Collins + 10 to D + 10 wouldn’t shock me. There’s a good chance this ends up being like MT-Sen/OH-Sen this cycle where Collins has a strong overperformance but still loses given the national environment - Maine was like 8 points to the left of the nation this cycle (Presidentially) so if it is a D+5 environment she needs a lot of crossover splitting.

Maine isn't as red as Montana, or as red as Ohio has basically become. Much as I hate to say it, but Collins will likely survive, barring the unlikely chance negative partisanship ends up winning out in the end. 

[New World Man]

Would a Trumpist primary challenge take her out?

[wbrocks67]

No attitude in my post- sorry it came across that way. I was just wondering if there was something that made you think Pingree was strong in particular. Based on your wording, it seems like you had a reason to believe that.  

I truly only asked because she's just the other higher up Maine elected official I know outside of Golden. I didn't realize she was so old.

I'd like to say Collins wont be re-elected but who knows. She shocked in 2020. However, Maine trended surprisingly left this year, and she won't have the backup of Trump voters coming out of the woodwork in 2026 like she did in 2020. But I'd say she's probably still the favorite.

[Spectator]

Golden is really the only one I can think of that would be favored to beat Collins as of this point. If Trump proves unpopular and the economy goes to sh**t, then Collins could lose to a worse challenger. You need to make a case beyond #resist against Collins. You need to attack her as a career politician who’s spent 30 years in DC.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

No not in a Trump midterm, in a Harris midterm yes

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Golden is really the only one I can think of thag would be favored to beat Collins as of this point. If Trump proves unpopular and the economy goes to sh**t, then Collins could lose to a worse challenger. You need to make a case beyond #resist against Collins. You need to attack her as a career politician who’s spent 30 years in DC.

Agree. The Democrat running should paint her as an establishment uniparty globalist RINO when running in ME-02.

[หมูเด้ง]

Trump isn't sworn in yet and yet we are predicting that his most vulnerable senator will survive.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

She has a good chance. Rs have a 53 seat majority, so she will be able to make a ton of votes against MAGA and appear moderate. Abortion is also secure in Maine, so I doubt she gets much backlash for Dobbs. The big question is if she runs at all though.

[Spectator]

Trump isn't sworn in yet and yet we are predicting that his most vulnerable senator will survive.

The poll of this question in the binary is very silly at this point. I could see Collins winning easily or losing in a landslide

[Beet]

In 2020, Democrats really had be convinced for awhile that her vote for Kavanaugh had doomed her and she was no longer popular in Maine. In retrospect, it was a massive echo chamber/bubble.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

I guess I’ll stick my neck out and say that I think her race would be a Toss-Up at best for her. We’ve seen crossover appeal consistently decline in Senate races, and there are a lot of attacks Democrats can use against her. Also, Maine barely swung right this year, in stark contrast to some of the other New England states, so if you consider an environment that is likely to be bad for her party, and where voters are going to be more concerned with putting a check on Trump than a potential future Democratic president, it’s not hard to see how she comes up short even if she can keep a fair amount of her crossover appeal. I don’t think Democrats need to run Golden, though he might have the best chance of beating her. As long as Democrats can run a campaign that’s fairly in touch with Maine voters, Collins has reason to be worried.

If it’s a blue ripple rather than a blue wave, she’s favored. If it’s a blue wave, I’d bet on her narrowly losing.

[windjammer]

I mean I remember some polls showing how unpopular Collins has become.

I think she will lose and it won't be close.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Isn't Pingree really the only person who could credibly challenge her?

No? She represents the liberal southern part of the state and would struggle in the rural north. She'll also be 71 in 2026.

Not to mention she already ran against Collins in 2002 and lost by 16 points.

To be fair just running up the numbers in ME-01 may be enough - if she could get ME-01 to D+20 then Collins could win ME-02 by as much as R+20 and still lose.

Feel like there’s a lot of unknowns in this race this far out and anything from Collins + 10 to D + 10 wouldn’t shock me. There’s a good chance this ends up being like MT-Sen/OH-Sen this cycle where Collins has a strong overperformance but still loses given the national environment - Maine was like 8 points to the left of the nation this cycle (Presidentially) so if it is a D+5 environment she needs a lot of crossover splitting.

Maine isn't as red as Montana, or as red as Ohio has basically become. Much as I hate to say it, but Collins will likely survive, barring the unlikely chance negative partisanship ends up winning out in the end. 

Sure, but it's not that much less blue than OH is red. In 2024, it looks like OH will end up ~10% to the right of the nation and ME ~8% to the left. Sherrod Brown just lost by ~4% for reference

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

We are set to gain 3 to five seats in a Trump midterm and 20 seats in the H


Due to fact there are 1 pickups in Gov races in 26 for Rs except KS


IA, ME, NC and OH if Tim Ryan runs Tier 1


TX Tier 2

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Probably starts as an underdog in both the primary and general.