question for Republicans? has Kerry ran a good campaign so far?

[nomorelies]

Look at the polls.
Not one democrat state in 2000 has swung towards Bush.
While 4 states have swung democrat. (NH,NV,WV,FL)

The labels aren`t working. Bush has more negatives than Kerry. Are you getting worried. In my mind i think its 55-45 to Kerry to win.

[MODU]

No.  His campaign lacks in many aspects, especially in a message.  He has done well on the wave of the anti-Bush momentum, but has yet to generate a real following of his own.  Most polls indicate that when asked if they are voting for Kerry or against Bush.

[Floridude]

Absolutely not!  If he was clintonesque he could be ahead 5 to 10 points at this point.  The fact that he is basically tied right now shows that unless he can rally the party and independent voters, hes going to have alot of trouble winning.

Your four state thing is a fallacy.  The only state that has swung from Bush to Kerry is New Hampshire.  The others are tied or slight Bush leads

[Reds4]

Overall not great, one good moment for Kerry though, he picked Edwards which was the correct pick.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

It'll depend on the debates.  Hell, I could go up there and make Bush look like a moron, but Kerry never seems to jump on any chances.  

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

In terms of logistics and discipline, I think the Kerry campaign has been quite good.  It's flaws lie with the candidate himself, not with the staff.

[lonestar]

There hasn't been any major mistakes, but there is no message.

[WalterMitty]

it's been an 'ok' campaign.  with the adversity that bush has faced this year, his opponent should be up 10 points or so, yet kerry is at best tied with bush.

kerry's fascination with states like virginia, arkansas, louisiana, and colorado blows my mind.  he should be concentrating on *real* swing states.

[Rococo4]

1. Kerry IS NOT going to win 55-45 nationally

2. Kerry has run a decent campaign, better than I would have hoped.  He has had the money to do so.  However, he probably should be up a little more than he is.  There is still alot of time left.  I wish ya'll had picked Dean.

[Akno21]

I'm a Democrat and I think Kerry has run a lousy campaign. He's a good fundraiser, I'll give him that. There's a website, something like johnkerryisa something bad but im voting for him anyway, and it probably represents the views of 1/4 of America.

[AuH2O]

Well, you have to separate things his campaign can control from those it can't.

Taking into account Kerry's extreme limitations- basically he's a terrible candidate- his campaign has done fine. Without knowing anything about this specific race, if you said "a Massachussetts liberal is running against an amiable, decisive Republican incumbent," any rational person would say the incumbent was a slam dunk.

Which Bush is, btw, but Kerry has kept it "close" at least in terms of current polls.

[The Duke]

Bad campaign.  And I don't agree that those four states have swung left, I think only New Hampshire fits that bill.  I also think that Wisconsin and Oregon have moved into Bush's column, so I don't agree that Bush has not gained any blue states.

[King]

*pounds gavel* ORDER ORDER *pounds gavel* I would like to add that the 2 states have infact swung to Bush from 2000.  Wisconsin and Oregon.

[Defarge]

*pounds gavel* ORDER ORDER *pounds gavel* I would like to add that the 2 states have infact swung to Bush from 2000.  Wisconsin and Oregon.

Ummmm... no?  

[TheWildCard]

Average campaign... Really he has had a bunch of chances to break away from Bush but hasn't a decent candidate could have but Kerry isn't that great at all.

[King]

*pounds gavel* ORDER ORDER *pounds gavel* I would like to add that the 2 states have infact swung to Bush from 2000.  Wisconsin and Oregon.

Ummmm... no?  

Ummmm...yes?

[© tweed]

*pounds gavel* ORDER ORDER *pounds gavel* I would like to add that the 2 states have infact swung to Bush from 2000.  Wisconsin and Oregon.

How have they swung to bush?

Wisconsin polls go both ways, although most show a small Kerry lead, and the last 3 polls out of Oregon have Kerry up 8%, 8%, and 4% repectively.

[khirkhib]

Forget Oregon.  Oregon is safer for Kerry now than Washington.  I'll make sure to keep it that way.   You guys need to put your effort in to states that you might be able to keep, Like VIRGINIA.  LOL.  

OK A little enthusiasm.  Look the campaign is just beginning and it might be close fought but their are more toss-up states this time around than last.  That might not be good for either but it does help line up the idea of the sweep.

Somebody said Slam-dunk.  Reminds me a Tenet.  Man if Bush Slam-dunks the election like he slam-dunked Iraq - Kerry will win Georgia.

[NHPolitico]

I won't address your actual post, but I will address your question.

What Kerry needs to do is try to be authentic about fighting terrorists all around the world.  95% of the Democats in the Fleet Center opposed OIF, but support Kerry because they know he wouldn't have gone to war even though he voted for it (they excuse it as pandering to middle America).  

Voters see Kerry and know the same thing. They don't believe his vote was an authentic expression of his beliefs. They don't like that he voted for that reason and, while they aren't crazy about Iraq right now, they aren't sure they want a guy who would probably wait until it was too late to act if Iraq really was a boiling crisis.  They may think Bush is too quick to war, but they think Kerry is too quick to appease.  Kerry has to sell that he's in the happy middle there.

And, it's not just a matter of speeches. Voters have probably made up there mind for the most part on who Kerry is. They'll see his words as just words-- like they were when he voted for the war, even though he didn't really mean it.

So, I don't know how he actually pulls it off, but that's his mission.

[The Duke]

*pounds gavel* ORDER ORDER *pounds gavel* I would like to add that the 2 states have infact swung to Bush from 2000.  Wisconsin and Oregon.

How have they swung to bush?

Wisconsin polls go both ways, although most show a small Kerry lead, and the last 3 polls out of Oregon have Kerry up 8%, 8%, and 4% repectively.

Those 3 polls are arobotrack (throw it out), ARG (very iffy), and a POS (acronym says it all).

No new polss that are good means I assume no change from early summer.

[© tweed]

If there is no evidence to say it has swung, you can't say it has swung.