Unexplained County Swings?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Latah County UT is another one - home to University of Idaho, and swung 12% right. Is it college students self-sorting such that Conservative students are increasingly sorting into a few red state state schools?

https://twitter.com/Lemommeringue/status/1856422684877537728

Yeah not Latah Id but still crazy . Looks like it swung D but actually R .

That's wild - supports the idea that there may have been turnotu differential problems for Dems this cycle, especially in non-swing states.

[riverwalk7]

Butler County, PA swung left

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Butler County, PA swung left

They like candidates who don’t get shot.

[RBH]

Butler County, PA swung left

at least the concept of "we'd gladly like to stay out of the news, thank you" occasionally holds up

(anybody ever get around to figuring out how Springfield, OH, not the county but the city, swung?)

[Atlas Force]

Fun fact: this is the county Twilight is set in

https://twitter.com/Mill226/status/1856511046422540472

[RI]

Fun fact: this is the county Twilight is set in

https://twitter.com/Mill226/status/1856511046422540472

The entire Olympic Peninsula has seen a major influx in liberal retirees and WFH-types since 2020. There's also been a backlash against some of the far-right antics of the Sequim city council.

[John Lewis Fan]

Fun fact: this is the county Twilight is set in

https://twitter.com/Mill226/status/1856511046422540472

Curious about the precinct I wonder if Harris improved fairly consistently countywide or if the swings were heavily because of Port Angeles or Sequim and weaker elsewhere

[RI]

Fun fact: this is the county Twilight is set in

https://twitter.com/Mill226/status/1856511046422540472

Curious about the precinct I wonder if Harris improved fairly consistently countywide or if the swings were heavily because of Port Angeles or Sequim and weaker elsewhere

It appears the pro-Dem swing occurred throughout the non-Native parts of the county (which swung strongly to Trump) excluding Forks, but was especially strong in Sequim and the growing wealthier/retiree parts of the county, namely Bell Hill, Diamond Point, and Sunland.

Port Angeles
2020: Biden +13.5
2024: Harris +17.6 (D+4.1)

Sequim
2020: Biden +15.6
2024: Harris +21.9 (D+6.3)

Forks
2020: Trump +33.4
2024: Trump +36.8 (R+3.4)

Bell Hill
2020: Biden +2.0
2024: Harris +15.4 (D+13.4)

Carlsborg
2020: Trump +2.5
2024: Harris +2.8 (D+5.3)

Clallam Bay
2020: Trump +15.5
2024: Trump +20.5 (R+5.0)

Diamond Point
2020: Biden +12.4
2024: Harris +27.4 (D+15.0)

Neah Bay
2020: Biden +62.8
2024: Harris +42.4 (R+20.4)

Sunland
2020: Biden +9.9
2024: Harris +22.4 (D+12.5)

Remainder of County
2020: Trump +2.8
2024: Harris +0.6 (D+3.5)

[iceman]

Butler County, PA swung left

it actually didn’t

[ProgressiveModerate]

Butler County, PA swung left

it actually didn’t

According to NYT it swung 0.3% towards Kamala Harris

[kwabbit]

Butler County, PA swung left

at least the concept of "we'd gladly like to stay out of the news, thank you" occasionally holds up

(anybody ever get around to figuring out how Springfield, OH, not the county but the city, swung?)

I saw on Twitter that Trump won the city narrowly. It was Biden +9 in 2020.

Butler, PA swinging left is more because it's educated and ancestrally GOP than the news though. I think Harris probably still gained slightly with educated Whites in the battlegrounds.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Butler County, PA swung left

at least the concept of "we'd gladly like to stay out of the news, thank you" occasionally holds up

(anybody ever get around to figuring out how Springfield, OH, not the county but the city, swung?)

I saw on Twitter that Trump won the city narrowly. It was Biden +9 in 2020.

Butler, PA swinging left is more because it's educated and ancestrally GOP than the news though. I think Harris probably still gained slightly with educated Whites in the battlegrounds.

Yeah it was almost certainly the Southern portion of the County that pulled it left - Harris also got Biden numbers out of Allengheny and Westmoreland so whiter Pittsburg suburbs likely swung let overall

[ProgressiveModerate]

Summitt UT swinging 4% right is somewhat suprising given what's happenning in the rest of UT.

[ottermax]

Summitt UT swinging 4% right is somewhat suprising given what's happenning in the rest of UT.

This one is really bizarre. The only explanation I can think of is demographic changes or maybe people who were working remotely from Park City returned home? Really odd for this county to swing right even by that much.

[lfromnj]

Summitt UT swinging 4% right is somewhat suprising given what's happenning in the rest of UT.

This one is really bizarre. The only explanation I can think of is demographic changes or maybe people who were working remotely from Park City returned home? Really odd for this county to swing right even by that much.

Aspen did as well in Colorado . Honestly thinking crunchy anti vaxxers .

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

Bucks, PA broke a trend of being remarkably consistent in the topline margin since 1992. Usually it moves in five different directions at once which even out to very little change, but this time all of its smorgasbord of different flavors of suburbia/exurbia/Bronzland/quasi-Amish land decided to hook right.

I wonder if part of the big swing in Monroe was deflation of the supposed "second home vote" from 2020 that people spoke of in places like the Hudson Valley, MI Cherry Coast, etc.

[nclib]

Several significant left swings in western NC...I wonder if this is because or despite Hurricane Helene.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Several significant left swings in western NC...I wonder if this is because or despite Hurricane Helene.

I think it's mostly a combo of high investment in the state by Harris and the liberal transplants moving into Western NC in and around the Asheville are - a good amount of these rural areas have growing educational attainment. Dems are really lucky that this phenomenon stops almost exactly at the TN/NC border.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Multnomah County, OR, swinging left is pretty surprising given everything that's happening in the "poorly governed blue state metros". It does seem like Portland has been a bit less of a lightning rod these past 2 years, but the County still has a notable non-white population and liberal white areas seem fairly closed to maxxed out for Dems.

[RBH]

not sure if there's a good sample for both groups, but I wonder if there's a split in perceptions of Blue State metros between the places with partisan elections and nonpartisan elections

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

Several significant left swings in western NC...I wonder if this is because or despite Hurricane Helene.

I think it's mostly a combo of high investment in the state by Harris and the liberal transplants moving into Western NC in and around the Asheville are - a good amount of these rural areas have growing educational attainment. Dems are really lucky that this phenomenon stops almost exactly at the TN/NC border.

These seems the most plausible explanation but I also think there's a non-zero chance it's actually just a Helene artifact, especially outside of Buncombe County. Somebody needs to go through and compare turnout in different precincts from 2020 to 2024.

(anybody ever get around to figuring out how Springfield, OH, not the county but the city, swung?)

Trump won Springfield for the first time in ages.

[nclib]

Ironically, Springfield's county (Clark) is one of only 3 counties in OH to trend R.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ironically, Springfield's county (Clark) is one of only 3 counties in OH to trend R.

Honestly one of the more depressing results of the election for me because it suggests the whole media cycle around "they're eating the dogs they're eating the cats" worked to Trump'd benefit there.

[RBH]

there's no shortage of reasons from this year to think that crapping on specific groups of people is actually good electoral politics for winning other groups, or winning the group being dumped on

[EastOfEden]

Bucks, PA broke a trend of being remarkably consistent in the topline margin since 1992. Usually it moves in five different directions at once which even out to very little change, but this time all of its smorgasbord of different flavors of suburbia/exurbia/Bronzland/quasi-Amish land decided to hook right.

This was Florida's dynamic that kept it Titanium Tilt R until 2022, so I suppose it shouldn't be that surprising. Really remarkable how uniform this election was though.