Why Do People Think The GOP Has A Shot In 2026?

[หมูเด้ง]

The biggest thing about 2026 will be the senate, and the fundamentals simply favor Republicans. Outside of Maine and North Carolina, you have every state where Trump won by 10 points or more, and with how much polarization there is nowadays, it's hard to see Republicans losing the senate.

The house, yeah it definitely flips in 2026. The gubernatorial and state legislative races will be something, but it is not a census year like 2030 where whoever wins that year gets to control redistricting for the next decade. Outside of Nevada, New Hampshire, and Georgia, Dems are essentially maxed out at the gubernatorial level. Phil Scott will never lose reelection.

I want to be convinced that Dems can win in more republican states again, and I'll have to see it to believe it.

They have to do better in more states to be a viable national party again.

[GAinDC]

The biggest thing about 2026 will be the senate, and the fundamentals simply favor Republicans. Outside of Maine and North Carolina, you have every state where Trump won by 10 points or more, and with how much polarization there is nowadays, it's hard to see Republicans losing the senate.

The house, yeah it definitely flips in 2026. The gubernatorial and state legislative races will be something, but it is not a census year like 2030 where whoever wins that year gets to control redistricting for the next decade. Outside of Nevada, New Hampshire, and Georgia, Dems are essentially maxed out at the gubernatorial level. Phil Scott will never lose reelection.

I want to be convinced that Dems can win in more republican states again, and I'll have to see it to believe it.

They have to do better in more states to be a viable national party again.

You don't think there are brilliant people in the party having those conversations right now? Dems will create a new playing field

[Accordion Hazard]

In 2010 the GOP won Senate races in four states that Obama won by double digits, WI, PA, IL, and MA in the special. Partly because 2008 represented an unsustainable zenith, even outside of the usual midterm swing... PA and WI weren't double digit Democratic before or after 2008 after all. While polarization limits things somewhat, might see a similar pattern this time around. Democrats only need two Trump double digit states (of which most targets were single digit in 2016 or 2020) to flip the Senate.

[UWS]

1: Trends are increasingly becoming meaningless. Polling is unreliable. Only four of the past seven midterms - after but excluding the Republican Revolution of 1994 - have been opposition waves. What's not to say this particular convention can't be coinflipped away?

2: A fair few of the representatives who people think are vulnerable - such as Schweikert, Evans and Bacon - have been repeatedly underestimated. The smart money is on people underestimating them in 2026, too.

When it comes to Georgia, Brian Kemp has the ability to appeal among Democrats as he won in 2018 and 22 both Dem friendly years. In times of inflation and where Senate will vote to make Trump tax cuts permanent, Kemp will emphasize on fact that Governor Zell Miller, who was Dem, cut taxes, which boomed GA's economy like it did under Kemp

https://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Zell_Miller.htm#Tax_Reform

https://twitter.com/BrianKempGA/status/1804310083746099626

[Compuzled_One]

1: Trends are increasingly becoming meaningless. Polling is unreliable. Only four of the past seven midterms - after but excluding the Republican Revolution of 1994 - have been opposition waves. What's not to say this particular convention can't be coinflipped away?

2: A fair few of the representatives who people think are vulnerable - such as Schweikert, Evans and Bacon - have been repeatedly underestimated. The smart money is on people underestimating them in 2026, too.

When it comes to Georgia, Brian Kemp has the ability to appeal among Democrats as he won in 2018 and 22 both Dem friendly years. In times of inflation and where Senate will vote to make Trump tax cuts permanent, Kemp will emphasize on fact that Governor Zell Miller, who was Dem, cut taxes, which boomed GA's economy like it did under Kemp

https://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Zell_Miller.htm#Tax_Reform

https://twitter.com/BrianKempGA/status/1804310083746099626

Not saying Kemp can't win, but 2022 was not Dem friendly.

[Raccoon]

my prediction is for a blue ripple of sorts in 2026

but remember the initial general concensus was for 2018 was a hard gop wave.

[Mr.Phips]

my prediction is for a blue ripple of sorts in 2026

but remember the initial general concensus was for 2018 was a hard gop wave.

2018 or 2022?  2018 most expected a Dem wave.

[Raccoon]

my prediction is for a blue ripple of sorts in 2026

but remember the initial general concensus was for 2018 was a hard gop wave.

2018 or 2022?  2018 most expected a Dem wave.

the general early thoughts on 2018 was a red gop wave

then some specials and elections in 2017 assumed a watergate style blue wave

ended up as a dem overperformance based on conditions but a polarized wave.

dems did  a lot better in 2018 than given credit for.

[หมูเด้ง]

my prediction is for a blue ripple of sorts in 2026

but remember the initial general concensus was for 2018 was a hard gop wave.

Democrats beating Collin’s and winning 10 seats in the house. That’s a ripple.

[Talleyrand]

If Collins loses, it's going to be in a 2018-style wave. A ripple won't cut it.

[Duke of York]

with likely a two seat majority there is no way Republicans keep the house. If Trump does even half of what he says he will do hes not going to be even remotely popular.  the margin in the house is so small it could flip with special elections which last happened after the 1930 midterms.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Trump already failed in Ukraine he said Putin would stop the war of he got elected and Putin didn't.

The out party Ds are gonna gain 2/5 S seats and 12/20 H seats and Rs are only gonna net 1)2 Govs in NH, KS, AZ

[#LANK]

Not to be an alarmist but like this guy wants to be president-for-life so he stays out of jail, his cabinet is shaping up as a bunch of Gavin Belson clones, Christofascists, Russian assets, and quacks, (collect all four and win a free get-out-of-jail card from your lawsuits on your cars burning up in submarine mode!), he wants to bring back the patronage system, his supporters feel emboldened against whatever group they hate, we can't rule national voter ID and MAGA poll-watchers etc. In the last case all the non-voter ID blue state govs would probably sue but who knows with this SCOTUS, we may well be several constitutional crises down the line by then (Sidenote: Sotomayor shoulda retired, THEY NEVER LEARN). I guess Gaetz withdrawing shows the Senate won't rubber-stamp everything but like that's the bare minimum that guy belongs in cuffs. Point being we really don't know what's going to happen the next 2 years. It's not good for anyone to doom over if s--- will hit the fan but the motive and opportunity indeed exist for s--- to hit the fan.

[Tekken_Guy]

Not to be an alarmist but like this guy wants to be president-for-life so he stays out of jail, his cabinet is shaping up as a bunch of Gavin Belson clones, Christofascists, Russian assets, and quacks, (collect all four and win a free get-out-of-jail card from your lawsuits on your cars burning up in submarine mode!), he wants to bring back the patronage system, his supporters feel emboldened against whatever group they hate, we can't rule national voter ID and MAGA poll-watchers etc. In the last case all the non-voter ID blue state govs would probably sue but who knows with this SCOTUS, we may well be several constitutional crises down the line by then (Sidenote: Sotomayor shoulda retired, THEY NEVER LEARN). I guess Gaetz withdrawing shows the Senate won't rubber-stamp everything but like that's the bare minimum that guy belongs in cuffs. Point being we really don't know what's going to happen the next 2 years. It's not good for anyone to doom over if s--- will hit the fan but the motive and opportunity indeed exist for s--- to hit the fan.

Trump doe not want to be president for life. He’s going to retire in 2028 and pass the torch over to Vance. He would have chosen someone boring like Burgum or Carson for VP if he was serious about a third term.

Also, Trump is not interested in rigging elections for downballot Republicans, he will gladly leave them to die in 2026 and blame them for their own losses, like he did in 2018 and 2022.

National voter ID is never getting past the very narrow house and the Senate filibuster.

[Pericles]

Not only will Democrats flip the House, but it will be a wave election like almost every midterm election. Republicans would likely need another 9/11 or outright authoritarian measures to win.

[Compuzled_One]

with likely a two seat majority there is no way Republicans keep the house. If Trump does even half of what he says he will do hes not going to be even remotely popular.  the margin in the house is so small it could flip with special elections which last happened after the 1930 midterms.

Dems could've kept the GOP gains to net 0 in 2020 with just a 1.6% national swing, and to 2 with just a 1% national swing. Admittedly, they had a high floor due to how much Biden won by and how much they got to change the map, but I can see the GOP keeping net losses to single digits, and thus a small chance they somehow hold the House, especially with all those Trump seat Dems.

[Duke of York]

with likely a two seat majority there is no way Republicans keep the house. If Trump does even half of what he says he will do hes not going to be even remotely popular.  the margin in the house is so small it could flip with special elections which last happened after the 1930 midterms.

Dems could've kept the GOP gains to net 0 in 2020 with just a 1.6% national swing, and to 2 with just a 1% national swing. Admittedly, they had a high floor due to how much Biden won by and how much they got to change the map, but I can see the GOP keeping net losses to single digits, and thus a small chance they somehow hold the House, especially with all those Trump seat Dems.

after two year of Trump back in office I don't see how we don't repeat 2018 and have a similar wave election in 28. Trump's base is not going to show up in either election.

[#LANK]

Trump doe not want to be president for life. He’s going to retire in 2028 and pass the torch over to Vance. He would have chosen someone boring like Burgum or Carson for VP if he was serious about a third term.

Also, Trump is not interested in rigging elections for downballot Republicans, he will gladly leave them to die in 2026 and blame them for their own losses, like he did in 2018 and 2022.

National voter ID is never getting past the very narrow house and the Senate filibuster.

Bro the question is “Why do people think the GOP has a shot in 2026” he literally tried to overthrow the government on his way out the last time there’s a lot fewer people in the way of that s---liner coming to port. Otherwise while I’d prefer for the sake of human decency these top minds don’t try to “solve” non-existent problems the collateral damage from such will show at the polls in 2 years. Or maybe not, maybe this nation really is THAT stupid

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump doe not want to be president for life. He’s going to retire in 2028 and pass the torch over to Vance. He would have chosen someone boring like Burgum or Carson for VP if he was serious about a third term.

Also, Trump is not interested in rigging elections for downballot Republicans, he will gladly leave them to die in 2026 and blame them for their own losses, like he did in 2018 and 2022.

National voter ID is never getting past the very narrow house and the Senate filibuster.

Bro the question is “Why do people think the GOP has a shot in 2026” he literally tried to overthrow the government on his way out the last time there’s a lot fewer people in the way of that s---liner coming to port. Otherwise while I’d prefer for the sake of human decency these top minds don’t try to “solve” non-existent problems the collateral damage from such will show at the polls in 2 years. Or maybe not, maybe this nation really is THAT stupid

Yeah, he tried to overthrow the government after he lost an election. He won’t do it again if he’s no longer interested in being president.

[lfromnj]

Again Democrats did actual shady sh**t in PA just a week ago and not a word from Trump . He doesn’t care about anyone but himself .

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

They don't as I said earlier because they will inherit the bad economy, they won't even share the unemployment rate anymore and it's gone way up

[It's Time.]

Not to be an alarmist but like this guy wants to be president-for-life so he stays out of jail, his cabinet is shaping up as a bunch of Gavin Belson clones, Christofascists, Russian assets, and quacks, (collect all four and win a free get-out-of-jail card from your lawsuits on your cars burning up in submarine mode!), he wants to bring back the patronage system, his supporters feel emboldened against whatever group they hate, we can't rule national voter ID and MAGA poll-watchers etc. In the last case all the non-voter ID blue state govs would probably sue but who knows with this SCOTUS, we may well be several constitutional crises down the line by then (Sidenote: Sotomayor shoulda retired, THEY NEVER LEARN). I guess Gaetz withdrawing shows the Senate won't rubber-stamp everything but like that's the bare minimum that guy belongs in cuffs. Point being we really don't know what's going to happen the next 2 years. It's not good for anyone to doom over if s--- will hit the fan but the motive and opportunity indeed exist for s--- to hit the fan.

I don't see the problem with voter ID as long as it's easy to access? Even some blue states have it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not to be an alarmist but like this guy wants to be president-for-life so he stays out of jail, his cabinet is shaping up as a bunch of Gavin Belson clones, Christofascists, Russian assets, and quacks, (collect all four and win a free get-out-of-jail card from your lawsuits on your cars burning up in submarine mode!), he wants to bring back the patronage system, his supporters feel emboldened against whatever group they hate, we can't rule national voter ID and MAGA poll-watchers etc. In the last case all the non-voter ID blue state govs would probably sue but who knows with this SCOTUS, we may well be several constitutional crises down the line by then (Sidenote: Sotomayor shoulda retired, THEY NEVER LEARN). I guess Gaetz withdrawing shows the Senate won't rubber-stamp everything but like that's the bare minimum that guy belongs in cuffs. Point being we really don't know what's going to happen the next 2 years. It's not good for anyone to doom over if s--- will hit the fan but the motive and opportunity indeed exist for s--- to hit the fan.

I don't see the problem with voter ID as long as it's easy to access? Even some blue states have it.

There’s even an argument that Voter ID could be a net negative for Republicans now as their base becomes lower propensity

[Virginiá]

I don't see the problem with voter ID as long as it's easy to access? Even some blue states have it.

There's nothing fundamentally wrong with it, but in implementation, it is often way more strict than it needs to be, and Republicans sometimes try to use the ID list to their advantage. For instance, concealed carry license = OK, student ID = Not OK. The other issue is that there just isn't a lot of voter fraud. Sure, it definitely happens, but usually in isolated cases where perhaps someone votes in the name of a deceased family member or some such (and recently, often by Republicans). There are not well-organized groups of people lurking in the shadows, swinging entire congressional or statewide races to their preferred picks.

The other issue is that when Democrats see what Republicans do with these restrictions in states like Wisconsin, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and so on, it makes it really hard to support even watered down versions because it is brazenly obvious that such restrictions are being pushed in bad faith, and for political gain. And even if you want to argue, "oh, well, Republican voters do believe there is fraud so we must implement these to foster trust in the system"... Nope. They believe there is fraud after every election they lose, no matter how many restrictions on voting there is. That's the reality we now live in. To indulge them is to indulge their desire to play political games with who can vote simply because they do not like the outcome.

Personally, I'm not against voter ID, but I'd rather we have a consensus agreement with many possible IDs allowed and no ability of state parties to change the rules after they lose elections. Many states cannot be trusted to not try and game the system. It's like gerrymandering. The conflict of interest is far too high and the integrity of the politicians far too low.

[Averroës]

It's always worth checking your assumptions on these things. For example, Republicans had a natural advantage in lower-turnout mid-terms until they didn't. I never have seen a wise mid-term prediction made within weeks of the prior election.