Blogging the non existent November 1st 2007 General Election in the UK

[Harry Hayfield]

Today would have been Election Day if Gordon Brown had gone ahead with the suggested plan of a snap election, but that shouldn't stop us should it? Here's how the BBC saw polling day happen:

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As so as the polls ready to close, all of the parties are on tenterhooks for the exit poll. The polls during the campaign have been all over the place, but last night's eve of election poll suggested a Conservative lead of 5% (compared to a Labour lead of 3% in 2005) indicating a 4% swing to Con. Would that galvanise Con voters to come out and vote, or would it have the opposite effect and ensure Labour voters to vote. In less than 10 minutes, we'll find out.

[Hash]

Interesting!

[Harry Hayfield]

And here comes the exit poll

Conservatives 38%
Labour 38%
Liberal Democrats 16%
Others 9%
Conservatives and Labour tied
Swing to Conservatives: 1.5%

Forecast House of Commons
Labour 341 seats
Conservatives 267 seats
Liberal Democrats 10 seats
Others 32 seats
Labour overall majority of 32

[Hash]

I'm not going to buy 10 Lib Dem seats.

[Harry Hayfield]

Reactions from the parties
Labour: Douglas Alexander (Election Chief) is pleased that the exit poll suggests a fourth Labour term, but chides against triumph
Conservatives: David Cameron questions an electoral system where the two main parties have the same share of the vote, but Labour have 74 more seats
Liberal Democrats: Ed Davey (Election Chief) dismisses the exit poll as "non scientific" and relates the 1992 exit poll

Rumour Mill
Conservatives claim to have won Dover, Blackpool North and Gedling
Labour claim to have held on to Redditch and Northampton North
Liberal Democrats report that Truro and Falmouth is too close to call
Greens report that Brighton, Pavilion is in the bag

[Harry Hayfield]

First Declaration

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Houghton and Sunderland South
Labour 20,439 (55.08% -6.92%)
Conservatives 6,689 (18.02% +1.40%)
British National Party 5,349 (14.41% +7.19%)
Liberal Democrats 4,627 (12.47% -2.06%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 13,750 (37.06%)
Swing from Lab to Con of 4.36%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'll probably be moving this to one of the various What-If boards soon, btw. Thought I better say before I actually do anything.

(nicely done though)

[afleitch]

And here comes the exit poll

Conservatives 38%
Labour 38%
Liberal Democrats 16%
Others 9%
Conservatives and Labour tied
Swing to Conservatives: 1.5%

Forecast House of Commons
Labour 341 seats
Conservatives 267 seats
Liberal Democrats 10 seats
Others 32 seats
Labour overall majority of 32

Lol.

Pray continue though I quite like things like these.

[Harry Hayfield]

Results in: 4
Labour HOLD Houghton and Sunderland South, Sunderland Central, Washington and Sunderland West, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

Vote Shares: Lab 55% Con 17% SNP 16% Lib Dem 10% BNP 8%

Gordon Brown Comment:

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Rumour Mill
Labour fear losing Tooting to Conservatives (swing needed 6% to Con)
Conservatives feeling confident in Cornwall North and Dorset South
Liberal Democrats to hold Winchester

[Harry Hayfield]

Breaking News
Conservatives GAIN Westminster North

Current Tallies:
Labour 19
Conservatives 1
Liberal Democrats 1

[Hash]

Very interesting. You gave me a good idea for a summer 2007 Quebec election

[Robespierre's Jaw]

This is very interesting as Hashemite has stated numerous times. I do find it hard to believe that the Liberal Democrats would lose 52 seats though, dropping their numbers down to 10. A question, who would be the leader of the Liberal Democrats be? Would it be acting Leader Vincent Cable?

[Harry Hayfield]

Overnight Summary
Seats Won So Far

Labour 250 seats
Conservatives 150 seats
Liberal Democrats 25 seats
Plaid Cymru 3 seats
Scottish National Party 5 seats
Independent (Dai Davies) 1 seat
Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern 1 seat
Greens 1

Shocks of the Night
Conservatives GAIN Truro and Falmouth from Liberal Democrats
Greens GAIN Brighton, Pavilion from Labour
Liberal Democrats HOLD Winchester by 792 over Conservatives
SNP GAIN Kilmarnock and Loudoun from Labour
British National Party come second in Barking polling 29% of the vote
Most marginal seat to declare so far: Rochdale (Liberal Democrat GAIN with a majority of 186
Recounts: 35

[Hash]

Go Conservatives and Lib Dems!

[Harry Hayfield]

Tally of seats at 12.00pm GMT
Labour 260 seats
Conservatives 190 seats
Liberal Democrats 31 seats
Plaid Cymru 4 seats
Scottish National Party 7 seats
Democratic Unionists 2 seats
SDLP 1 seat
Sinn Fein 1 seat
Independent (Dai Davies) 1 seat
Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern 1 seat
Greens 1

Comment
Gordon Brown: If the electors of Britain have voted for Labour as the largest party in a hung Parliament, we will respect that decision
David Cameron: Gordon Brown has not been able to win a majority, therefore he should resign as Prime Minister
Menzies Campbell: Britain has had enough of the bickering between the two main parties and has decided to give the Liberal Democrats a chance to influence policy
President George Bush: I will be happy to work with either Gordon Brown or David Cameron
Senator Hillary Clinton: It is clear that the United Kingdom has rejected the policies of President Bush

[Harry Hayfield]

All GB seats now declared. 10 of the 18 NI seats declared

Votes Cast
Conservatives 37.42% winning 290 seats
Labour 32.71% winning 279 seats
Liberal Democrats 19.57% winning 44 seats
Others 10.30% winning 27 seats

Gains
Conservative GAINS
Aberconwy CC, Battersea BC, Birmingham, Edgbaston BC, Blackpool North and Cleveleys BC, Bradford West BC, Brecon and Radnorshire CC, Brigg and Goole CC, Brighton, Kemptown BC, Bristol North West BC, Broxtowe CC, Burton CC, Bury North BC, Calder Valley CC, Cardiff North BC, Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South CC, Carshalton and Wallington BC, Chatham and Aylesford CC, Cheadle BC, Cheltenham BC, Chippenham CC, City of Chester CC, Cleethorpes CC, Colne Valley CC, Corby CC, Crawley BC, Croydon Central BC, Dartford CC, Dewsbury CC, Dudley South BC, Dumfries and Galloway CC, Ealing Central and Acton BC, Eastleigh BC, Eltham BC, Gillingham and Rainham BC, Great Yarmouth CC, Halifax BC, Harlow CC, Harrow East BC, Hastings and Rye CC, Hendon BC, Hereford and South Herefordshire CC, High Peak CC, Hove BC, Loughborough CC, Milton Keynes North CC, Milton Keynes South BC, North Cornwall CC, North Swindon CC, Northampton South BC, Pendle BC, Portsmouth North BC, Portsmouth South BC, Redditch CC, Richmond Park BC, Romsey and Southampton North CC, Rossendale and Darwen BC, Rugby  CC, Somerton and Frome CC, South Basildon and East Thurrock CC, South Derbyshire CC, South Dorset CC, South Ribble CC, South Swindon CC, Southport BC, Stafford CC, Stevenage CC, Stourbridge BC, Stroud CC, Sutton and Cheam BC, Tamworth CC, Taunton Deane CC, Torbay BC, Truro and Falmouth CC, Vale of Glamorgan CC, Watford BC, Westminster North BC, Westmorland and Lonsdale CC, Wolverhampton South West BC, Worcester BC, York Outer CC (80)

Liberal Democrat GAINS
Oxford East BC, Rochdale BC

Plaid Cymru GAINS
Arfon CC, Ceredigion CC, Ynys Mon CC

Scottish National Party GAINS
Dundee West BC, Kilmarnock and Loudon BC, Ochil and Perthshire South BC

Respect GAINS
Poplar and Limehouse BC

Green GAINS
Brighton, Pavilion BC

[Harry Hayfield]

BREAKING NEWS: The BBC is reporting that Gordon Brown is to seek an emeregency Cabinet meeting at 10.00am tomorrow morning. Although the debate subject isn't known there are suggestions that Gordon Brown wants to agree to a formal Lab / Lib Dem coalition government.

[Hash]

What is the total breakdown of the "Others" by party?

[Harry Hayfield]

Scottish National Party 2.17% UK vote (24.61% Scotland) winning 9 seats
Plaid Cymru 0.68% UK vote (13.05% Wales) winning 5 seats
Respect 0.27% UK vote winning 2 seats
Greens 2.13% UK vote winning 1 seat
Blaenau Gwent People's Voice 0.10% UK vote winning 1 seat
UK Independence Party 1.07% UK vote
British National Party 0.37% UK vote
Others 2.64% UK vote

Northern Ireland Others by Constituency
Antrim East: DUP
Antrim North: DUP
Antrim South: DUP
Belfast East: DUP
Belfast South: DUP GAIN from SDLP
Belfast West: SF
Down North: UUP
Down South: SDLP
Fermanagh and South Tyrone: SF
Foyle: SF GAIN from SDLP
Lagan Valley: DUP
Londonderry East: DUP
Newry and Armagh: SF
Strangford: DUP
Tyrone West: SF
Ulster Mid: SF
Upper Bann: DUP

[Harry Hayfield]

Gordon Brown is to make a statement at 6.00pm GMT this evening addressing both the state of emergency in Pakistan as well as the recent election result. David Cameron has been in Belfast today speaking to both the Ulster Unionist and Democratic Unionist leaders. The final tallies suggest:

Con + UUP + DUP = 290 + 1 + 8 = 299
Lab + Lib Dem = 279 + 44 = 303
Plaid + SNP + SDLP + Others = 5 + 9 + 1 + 4 = 19

[minionofmidas]

If I was Gordon Brown on these results, I'd just patiently wait through three months of a Cameron premiership and win a majority in the spring 2008 General Election.