Will Brian Kemp run for senate? Will Roy Cooper run for senate?

[lfromnj]

Only chance R's have at a realistic pickup is GA(insulated from national environment with a steady march D each cycle)

Along with Maine , NC is Dems only clear pickup opportunity as of right now. Cooper would probably be the best candidate.

[Spectator]

Guess is yes and yes. Kemp seems to want it, and I can’t figure Cooper will be dissuaded from running in NC after how well Dems did there despite Trump winning fairly easily.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Guess is yes and yes. Kemp seems to want it, and I can’t figure Cooper will be dissuaded from running in NC after how well Dems did there despite Trump winning fairly easily.

What indication do you see that Kemp wants the Senate?  I've always had the impression he favors being an executive, so I've been figuring he'll run for President in 2028.

[GAinDC]

Ya know, I'm actually not sure if Kemp wants to run for Senate

I guess people just expected it, as that's what many governors do after their term ends, but does anyone know if he has hinted at this?

[Spectator]

Guess is yes and yes. Kemp seems to want it, and I can’t figure Cooper will be dissuaded from running in NC after how well Dems did there despite Trump winning fairly easily.

What indication do you see that Kemp wants the Senate?  I've always had the impression he favors being an executive, so I've been figuring he'll run for President in 2028.

Because it seems like wishcasting otherwise. He went out of his way to boost Walker in 2022 and has met with donors following the 2022 race.

[CentristRepublican]

Kemp no, Cooper yes

Ya know, I'm actually not sure if Kemp wants to run for Senate

I guess people just expected it, as that's what many governors do after their term ends, but does anyone know if he has hinted at this?

Agreed. I think he'd be toast in a primary and I wonder if he may think the very same thing. Trump clearly hates him and I can see him endorsing Kemp's opponent out of spite. And besides even the GE would be a pretty tough fight.

[Spectator]

Lest the wishful thinking persist further:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/28/brian-kemp-political-future-convention-00160005

I'll believe Kemp doesn't run the second he announces his decision. Same with Cooper. All the tea leaves suggest both will run.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lest the wishful thinking persist further:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/28/brian-kemp-political-future-convention-00160005

I'll believe Kemp doesn't run the second he announces his decision. Same with Cooper. All the tea leaves suggest both will run.

That article says Kemp is building his organization for either a Senate run in '26 or a presidential run in '28.  It doesn't suggest that he was leaning toward either one at the time it was written.  I don't think there's any new information there.

Certainly Kemp *could* run for Senate; I definitely don't say it's impossible.  But I just think that being the smart polititican he is, in a Trump midterm he's more likely to pass up a tough Senate race in favor of waiting a couple years and running for the bigger job.

[Spectator]

Lest the wishful thinking persist further:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/28/brian-kemp-political-future-convention-00160005

I'll believe Kemp doesn't run the second he announces his decision. Same with Cooper. All the tea leaves suggest both will run.

That article says Kemp is building his organization for either a Senate run in '26 or a presidential run in '28.  It doesn't suggest that he was leaning toward either one at the time it was written.  I don't think there's any new information there.

Certainly Kemp *could* run for Senate; I definitely don't say it's impossible.  But I just think that being the smart polititican he is, in a Trump midterm he's more likely to pass up a tough Senate race in favor of waiting a couple years and running for the bigger job.

Again, I think it’s wishful thinking by Dems just hoping he won’t run. We’ll see. Rick Scott and Jim Justice ran. Sununu and Ducey did not. All had the will they or won’t they gamesmanship. There’s no telling.

I will say odds are probably higher (I’d put near 100%) that Roy Cooper will run in NC. I think that will be a relatively easy sell to coax him into the race, especially with how easily Dems won in NC despite Trump’s win there.

[GAinDC]

Lest the wishful thinking persist further:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/28/brian-kemp-political-future-convention-00160005

I'll believe Kemp doesn't run the second he announces his decision. Same with Cooper. All the tea leaves suggest both will run.

That article says Kemp is building his organization for either a Senate run in '26 or a presidential run in '28.  It doesn't suggest that he was leaning toward either one at the time it was written.  I don't think there's any new information there.

Certainly Kemp *could* run for Senate; I definitely don't say it's impossible.  But I just think that being the smart polititican he is, in a Trump midterm he's more likely to pass up a tough Senate race in favor of waiting a couple years and running for the bigger job.

Again, I think it’s wishful thinking by Dems just hoping he won’t run. We’ll see. Rick Scott and Jim Justice ran. Sununu and Ducey did not. All had the will they or won’t they gamesmanship. There’s no telling.

I will say odds are probably higher (I’d put near 100%) that Roy Cooper will run in NC. I think that will be a relatively easy sell to coax him into the race, especially with how easily Dems won in NC despite Trump’s win there.

He may run in 2026, but it's by no means a slam dunk

Popular governors running for Senate are often brought down by partisan gravity.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Kemp hasn't said anything about running

[MillennialModerate]

For a while now I felt Osoff would still be favored in a Trump second term.

But the more I think about it - Osoff isn’t the best fit for Georgia. And Kemp has a lot of crossover appeal. Way more than any other GOP Senate canidate has had recently. It would take a catastrophe of a second term for Kemp to be a decisive underdog.

Really. Really hope Cooper runs and Kemp doesn’t. It keeps us on an outside track to having a *shot* at the 28 trifecta. If Kemp runs and Cooper doesn’t. Forget it

[Compuzled_One]

For a while now I felt Osoff would still be favored in a Trump second term.

But the more I think about it - Osoff isn’t the best fit for Georgia. And Kemp has a lot of crossover appeal. Way more than any other GOP Senate canidate has had recently. It would take a catastrophe of a second term for Kemp to be a decisive underdog.

Really. Really hope Cooper runs and Kemp doesn’t. It keeps us on an outside track to having a *shot* at the 28 trifecta. If Kemp runs and Cooper doesn’t. Forget it

Don't be that pessimistic. Ossoff beat an incumbent and is one himself, and GA seems to be even more blue now. Kemp also seems like just a normal campaigner.

Unless Trump gets a lot done in his term, I'd say Jon still wins with a decent lead.

[RJ]

I'm sure Cooper has senate aspirations.

I don't think Kemp could get The Donalds' endorsement. Maybe Herchel will run again.

[lfromnj]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kemp-to-serve-as-republican-governors-association-chair/ar-AA1ushPx?ocid=BingNewsVerp

Kemp is head of RGA. Looking like he isn't going for a run .

[Vern]

 No to both

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kemp-to-serve-as-republican-governors-association-chair/ar-AA1ushPx?ocid=BingNewsVerp

Kemp is head of RGA. Looking like he isn't going for a run .

He is serving RGA for the 2025 season, not 2026.

Kemp will probably run. After Trump flipped the state back, he likely has mended fences with him. The nomination is also literally his for the taking if he wants it and he won in 2018 despite it also being a blue wave. Obviously, it wouldn't be an easy win but he would have a pretty decent chance of winning the Senate race unless Trump has Biden tier approval or Rs nominate someone like MTG for governor.

The dynamics of Ossoff running in a Trump state are very different than Warnock running in a Biden one.

Roy Cooper, I'm not as familiar with him, but I guess he could or he might also pass. I could see it either way.

[GAinDC]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kemp-to-serve-as-republican-governors-association-chair/ar-AA1ushPx?ocid=BingNewsVerp

Kemp is head of RGA. Looking like he isn't going for a run .

He is serving RGA for the 2025 season, not 2026.

Kemp will probably run. After Trump flipped the state back, he likely has mended fences with him. The nomination is also literally his for the taking if he wants it and he won in 2018 despite it also being a blue wave. Obviously, it wouldn't be an easy win but he would have a pretty decent chance of winning the Senate race unless Trump has Biden tier approval or Rs nominate someone like MTG for governor.

The dynamics of Ossoff running in a Trump state are very different than Warnock running in a Biden one.

Roy Cooper, I'm not as familiar with him, but I guess he could or he might also pass. I could see it either way.

You don’t mend fences with someone who put you and your family in danger. If Kemp was a real man, he would never f**k with Donald Trump again. 

[Skill and Chance]

I think he would have run in 2026 if Harris was elected, but now he runs in 2028 instead. 

[David Hume]

Lest the wishful thinking persist further:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/28/brian-kemp-political-future-convention-00160005

I'll believe Kemp doesn't run the second he announces his decision. Same with Cooper. All the tea leaves suggest both will run.

That article says Kemp is building his organization for either a Senate run in '26 or a presidential run in '28.  It doesn't suggest that he was leaning toward either one at the time it was written.  I don't think there's any new information there.

Certainly Kemp *could* run for Senate; I definitely don't say it's impossible.  But I just think that being the smart polititican he is, in a Trump midterm he's more likely to pass up a tough Senate race in favor of waiting a couple years and running for the bigger job.

Again, I think it’s wishful thinking by Dems just hoping he won’t run. We’ll see. Rick Scott and Jim Justice ran. Sununu and Ducey did not. All had the will they or won’t they gamesmanship. There’s no telling.

I will say odds are probably higher (I’d put near 100%) that Roy Cooper will run in NC. I think that will be a relatively easy sell to coax him into the race, especially with how easily Dems won in NC despite Trump’s win there.

He may run in 2026, but it's by no means a slam dunk

Popular governors running for Senate are often brought down by partisan gravity.

That's for states where one party is overwhelmingly stronger like in MT, MD, TN. In close states, governor has the upper hand, see NH 2016 and FL 2018.

[Vosem]

Didn't Cooper explicitly say he didn't want to be considered for VP because he wanted to run for the Senate in 2026? Obviously the real reason was that he couldn't leave the state lest Robinson become acting Governor, but still.

Kemp seems like a reasonably popular incumbent Governor and those often do well even in bad years, and Ossoff is a bit of an accidental incumbent. (Like, he clearly won solely because he got to fight a January 2021 election in a much worse climate for Republicans than November 2020, when by the rules of any other state he lost. That doesn't make him illegitimate, but I think he's a little closer to "weird special election winner" than "regular Senator". Whereas I think Warnock would've beaten Loeffler in a head-to-head fight in November 2020.) I think Kemp v. Ossoff, if it happens, would be a likelier Republican victory than Tillis v. Cooper.

GA Republicans still have a really high floor! At all statewide elections since 2006, no GA Republican has done worse than 48.6% (which was what Herschel Walker got). And Kemp is a popular incumbent Governor, and the weird thing is that he doesn't need to beat the bare minimum by that much.

[GAinDC]

Didn't Cooper explicitly say he didn't want to be considered for VP because he wanted to run for the Senate in 2026? Obviously the real reason was that he couldn't leave the state lest Robinson become acting Governor, but still.

Kemp seems like a reasonably popular incumbent Governor and those often do well even in bad years, and Ossoff is a bit of an accidental incumbent. (Like, he clearly won solely because he got to fight a January 2021 election in a much worse climate for Republicans than November 2020, when by the rules of any other state he lost. That doesn't make him illegitimate, but I think he's a little closer to "weird special election winner" than "regular Senator". Whereas I think Warnock would've beaten Loeffler in a head-to-head fight in November 2020.) I think Kemp v. Ossoff, if it happens, would be a likelier Republican victory than Tillis v. Cooper.

GA Republicans still have a really high floor! At all statewide elections since 2006, no GA Republican has done worse than 48.6% (which was what Herschel Walker got). And Kemp is a popular incumbent Governor, and the weird thing is that he doesn't need to beat the bare minimum by that much.

This is the first GOP midterm since Dems broke through in the state, so I think we may see some wacky and different dynamics at play. But I agree that Kemp would be a tough opponent.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I think Kemp runs.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1857236975293452520


As for Cooper I lean yes, but I do wonder why Wiley Nickel is running as I would think the Dems would want a clear field (and I don't see how he would win a primary vs. Cooper)

[Vosem]

I think Kemp runs.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1857236975293452520


As for Cooper I lean yes, but I do wonder why Wiley Nickel is running as I would think the Dems would want a clear field (and I don't see how he would win a primary vs. Cooper)

Is a clear field good necessarily? As long as they don't go super negative on each other I think it's fine for Democratic chances to have a competition. If Nickel can beat Cooper that proves he's a strong candidate.* If Cooper doesn't want to run because he doesn't want to face Nickel, he was never going to be that good anyway.

Presumably Nickel is running just to keep his name out there for some future opening. (Interestingly, long before Nickel launched his political career in North Carolina, he tried doing so in California -- he was the Democratic nominee against future Congressman Jeff Denham for a state Senate race in 2006. That area was Safe R at the time, but it's interesting how things shift -- it's now hypercompetitive, and in a different world he might've been the Democrat fighting the Gray/Duarte race).

*And Nickel is a strong candidate: he's one of just four Democrats, together with Mary Peltola, Marie Perez, and Susan Wild, to win a notionally-House-R-in-2020 seat in 2022, even though it's less impressive than other wins since it was an open seat that voted for Biden '20.

[GAinDC]

I think folks are underestimating Ossoff. He is a really strong candidate and has been a pretty good senator. He is very TV friendly, young, handsome, and a good orator.

I've never been that impressed with Kemp as a candidate. He's kind of dull and the way he has gone back and forth on Trump is so weak. Kemp's family got death threats as a result of Trump's tirade against him in 2020. Trump even half-jokingly endorsed Stacey Abrams in 2022. Yet, Kemp still swallows his pride and supports him.

If someone put me and my family in danger like that and then proceeded to publicly humiliate me, I would NEVER give them the time of day again. Some things are more important than winning elections.