Ossoff vs. Kemp 2026, who wins?

[coloradocowboi]

This is a tossup even in a Democratic leaning environment with Kemp. In today's extremely f-d up Overton Window, Kemp is now perceived as a moderate lol

[GAinDC]

Ossoff is one of those guys who just has a ton of audacity. Even after losing in the 2017 special House election, he still saw himself fit to run for Senate in 2020 against an incumbent, and he won. That's pretty remarkable.

I think his steely determination may win out over Kemp's "aw shucks" good ol boy routine, especially if the electorate is in an angry mood.

[here2view]

Ossoff +1

[GAinDC]

Ossoff +1

that may not be enough to pass the runoff threshold

[GAinDC]

also, for all the talk of Kemp being an electoral titan, he only won by 7.5 points in an R+5 electorate in 2022

[2016]

LOL, if Dems couldn't beat Kemp in a D+8 National Wave Environment in 2018 they hell will not beat him in 2026 either.

[GAinDC]

LOL, if Dems couldn't beat Kemp in a D+8 National Wave Environment in 2018 they hell will not beat him in 2026 either.

Georgia is not the same state it was in 2018

We've won a presidential race and three senate races since then

Now, Ossoff is the incumbent in a Trump midterm. Kemp will be a formidable opponent, but he is beatable -- assuming he even runs

[UncleSam]

Tilt D to start, depends on the environment. I am assuming Trump will be unpopular and if so, shift this to Lean D. Any other R starts at Likely D.

Trump only won by a bit over 2% in 2024. I have a hard time seeing GA not shift at least two points left in a midterm, so Kemp would need to overperform Trump…and need Ossoff to do no better than Harris. That’s a tall task.

[2016]

LOL, if Dems couldn't beat Kemp in a D+8 National Wave Environment in 2018 they hell will not beat him in 2026 either.

Georgia is not the same state it was in 2018

We've won a presidential race and three senate races since then

Now, Ossoff is the incumbent in a Trump midterm. Kemp will be a formidable opponent, but he is beatable -- assuming he even runs

It's a different State compared to 2018 for sure...BUT

Biden won Georgia in 2020 because of Raphael Warnock. During the "Today Show" the Morning after the Election NBC's Chief Political Analyst Chuck Todd described Warnock as a "Second Running Mate" for Biden.

On Top of that EXIT POLLS revealed that Governor Kemp enjoyed a 63/33 Job Approval Rating from Voters who voted in the 2024 Presidential Election in Georgia.

Further Ossoff won't likely get the Black Turnout in 2026 he did in 2020 when he had Warnock on the Ballot for both Races.

Adding those factors all together and I'd say Kemp has a more than 50/50 Chance winning this Race should he decide to run.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

Kemp has insanely high approvals, and he wouldn't need anything near the types of outperformances Governors have gotten recently to win. That said, he beat Abrams by 8 and Ossoff is a significantly stronger candidate in what will probably be a much bluer year than 2022. I genuinely have no idea which of these factors win out or if they both cancel out and it's a total coin flip.