Ossoff vs. Kemp 2026, who wins?

[Tekken_Guy]

Ossoff vs. Kemp 2026, who wins?

[It's Time.]

Kemp won’t run. Just like how Sununu didn’t run in NH senate in 2022. I think he prefers state politics.

[vbfox]

Even with Kemp running, the race is lean D since Atlanta is expected to continue zooming leftward and Dems get better on appealing to disaffected voters

[riverwalk7]

Tossup, GA turnout dynamics isn’t as punishing for Rs in midterms as say PA.

[Talleyrand]

Kemp pulls it off by a narrow but clear margin.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t know, but GA with Kemp and ME with Collins are the only two races I can envision Republicans actually running smart campaigns in and overperforming the fundamentals. I don’t trust Tillis and the NC GOP at all (there’s a reason why their bench has been depleted), Michigan has been an absolute disaster for the GOP in every midterm since 2014 regardless of the overall environment, and the party will predictably underperform (underperform =/= lose) in several red states, too (TX, AK, KS, SC, etc.). Collins and Kemp actually have a brain, so they should make things more interesting than a lot of these other clowns and dysfunctional state parties. Unfortunately for Republicans, candidates/party chairs with a brain are the exception in the GOP, not the rule. Fortunately for Republicans, there aren’t really any R-held swing states other than NC/ME up in 2026 and partisanship should bail them out in a lot of places.

My early guess is that Republicans hold the Senate despite their best efforts to lose it. I think the House is pretty close to gone even in a more neutral year, however.

[GAinDC]

Kemp pulls it off by a narrow but clear margin.

How does Kemp defy the national environment, his icy relationship with Trump, GA’s D trend, and Ossoff’s incumbency?

[Torrain]

Given Kelly Loeffler has been appointed co-chair of the Trump Inauguration, she’s presumably angling for his support and a second run?

Besides, surely it’s a better bet for Kemp to wait for 2028, and take on Warnock in a high turnout environment liable to be less detrimental for the GOP?

[Talleyrand]

Kemp pulls it off by a narrow but clear margin.

How does Kemp defy the national environment, his icy relationship with Trump, GA’s D trend, and Ossoff’s incumbency?

Strong Republican floor in GA (they've never gotten below 48 6% of the vote in decades), higher profile than Ossoff with a greater history of winning crossover support, no guarantee of a strongly blue national environment, and Trump's incentive to keep control of the Senate for his past two years. After Rs gained Florida in 2018 and Ds winning PA in 2022, I see no reason not to expect something similar here.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I don’t know, but GA with Kemp and ME with Collins are the only two races I can envision Republicans actually running smart campaigns in and overperforming the fundamentals. I don’t trust Tillis and the NC GOP at all (there’s a reason why their bench has been depleted), Michigan has been an absolute disaster for the GOP in every midterm since 2014 regardless of the overall environment, and the party will predictably underperform (underperform =/= lose) in several red states, too (TX, AK, KS, SC, etc.). Collins and Kemp actually have a brain, so they should make things more interesting than a lot of these other clowns and dysfunctional state parties. Unfortunately for Republicans, candidates/party chairs with a brain are the exception in the GOP, not the rule. Fortunately for Republicans, there aren’t really any R-held swing states other than NC/ME up in 2026 and partisanship should bail them out in a lot of places.

My early guess is that Republicans hold the Senate despite their best efforts to lose it. I think the House is pretty close to gone even in a more neutral year, however.

Don't count Tillis out, he proved the pundits wrong twice now. The people who narrowly win are actually stronger candidates since they had to fight tough races and know what to do. It's the Bill Nelsons and Bob Caseys of the world who cruise by double digits, and then struggle to win the horserace when they face an actual challenge.

[iceman]

Kemp, I do think Ossoff is a bad fit for Georgia.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Kemp pulls it off by a narrow but clear margin.

How does Kemp defy the national environment, his icy relationship with Trump, GA’s D trend, and Ossoff’s incumbency?

Strong Republican floor in GA (they've never gotten below 48 6% of the vote in decades), higher profile than Ossoff with a greater history of winning crossover support, no guarantee of a strongly blue national environment, and Trump's incentive to keep control of the Senate for his past two years. After Rs gained Florida in 2018 and Ds winning PA in 2022, I see no reason not to expect something similar here.

But is Ossoff as much of a vulnerable/risk of caught napping incumbent as Nelson was in 2018?

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Kemp, I do think Ossoff is a bad fit for Georgia.

Why so?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Kemp is gonna retire

[GAinDC]

Kemp, I do think Ossoff is a bad fit for Georgia.

Why so?

he literally grew up in GA. How is he a bad fit for his native state?

[Yelnoc]

Kemp pulls it off by a narrow but clear margin.

How does Kemp defy the national environment, his icy relationship with Trump, GA’s D trend, and Ossoff’s incumbency?

Strong Republican floor in GA (they've never gotten below 48 6% of the vote in decades), higher profile than Ossoff with a greater history of winning crossover support, no guarantee of a strongly blue national environment, and Trump's incentive to keep control of the Senate for his past two years. After Rs gained Florida in 2018 and Ds winning PA in 2022, I see no reason not to expect something similar here.

I agree with this. Additionally, I would argue that Kemp's frosty relationship with Trump will be asset in the coming midterms. We know that Trump's coalition is low-propensity and likely will not turn out strongly in 2026. Therefore, Republican candidates will need to make inroads with suburban moderates. Kemp is exactly the candidate to do that.

[GAinDC]

So, one thing that will be interesting in GA 2026 is that it will be the first cycle in many years with an incumbent Dem running for Senate and an open Governor's race during a Republican midterm. That could create some wacky dynamics that may test Republicans' floor in the state.

We know Dems can win with Trump on the ballot (2020)

We know Dems can win during a Dem midterm (2022)

We also know Trump can reverse some of the GOP's bad trends in the state (2024)

so I'm not making any bold predictions this time

[GAinDC]

Kemp pulls it off by a narrow but clear margin.

How does Kemp defy the national environment, his icy relationship with Trump, GA’s D trend, and Ossoff’s incumbency?

Strong Republican floor in GA (they've never gotten below 48 6% of the vote in decades), higher profile than Ossoff with a greater history of winning crossover support, no guarantee of a strongly blue national environment, and Trump's incentive to keep control of the Senate for his past two years. After Rs gained Florida in 2018 and Ds winning PA in 2022, I see no reason not to expect something similar here.

I agree with this. Additionally, I would argue that Kemp's frosty relationship with Trump will be asset in the coming midterms. We know that Trump's coalition is low-propensity and likely will not turn out strongly in 2026. Therefore, Republican candidates will need to make inroads with suburban moderates. Kemp is exactly the candidate to do that.

how does Kemp convince these voters that he will be an effective check on Trump if Ossoff is already doing that?

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Now that Trump no longer needs to make nice with Kemp would he try to eff him over in a primary? Has he forgiven him for the “steal” in 2020 now that Kemp delivered in 2024?

[GAinDC]

Now that Trump no longer needs to make nice with Kemp would he try to eff him over in a primary? Has he forgiven him for the “steal” in 2020 now that Kemp delivered in 2024?

I kinda feel like Trump would rather deal with a Dem senator he can fight with than a fellow GOP senator who is insufficiently loyal lol

[coloradocowboi]

Kemp, I do think Ossoff is a bad fit for Georgia.

That's why I'm not voting in this poll. Ossoff is pretty weak on substance and might wither without Warnock there to support him. However, the turnout dynamics will probably advantage Dems in the state for the very first time. I would say this one and Michigan are true tossups that could be more slam dunks if the Dems had a better candidate.

[Devils30]

Ossoff wins because it's a Republican midterm. I think this will spook Kemp out of running.

[riverwalk7]

Ossoff wins because it's a Republican midterm. I think this will spook Kemp out of running.

Think midterms affect different states differently; in particular states with more Trump only voters (Rust Belt, and now Southwest with tons of first time Trump Hispanic voters) shift more.  Could see the Rust Belt/Southwest shift left by close to 10 while Georgia only shifts left by 2 in a national environment that shifts left by 6.

[Devils30]

Ossoff wins because it's a Republican midterm. I think this will spook Kemp out of running.

Think midterms affect different states differently; in particular states with more Trump only voters (Rust Belt, and now Southwest with tons of first time Trump Hispanic voters) shift more.  Could see the Rust Belt/Southwest shift left by close to 10 while Georgia only shifts left by 2 in a national environment that shifts left by 6.

Kemp is also someone who can wait a long time to see how the 2026 environment looks for GOP. Not like the GOP is going to defeat Ossoff with anyone else.

[Agafin]

https://twitter.com/blfraga/status/1857014247386972435?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

Based on this chart, I think Kemp would be the slight favorite even in a Trump midterm. Black turnout hasn't been very good since the impressive 2018 election* which means that the democrats who won (Biden, Ossoff, Warnock) have relied on getting good numbers with whites (>30%). I don't really see Ossoff as the candidate to energize black turnout which means that he'll have to rely on persuasion with white voters but against Kemp that's gonna be hard, he got 74% of the white vote in both of his gubernatorial runs. He'll probably get less crossover support in a senate run against an incumbent but less than 70%? I don't see it.

*Run-offs have seen better relative black turnout though.