Why was Casey the only swing state Dem to lose?

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

A non crazy opponent can’t have helped his chances.

You could say the same for Nevada, Michigan, or Wisconsin, though.

Hovde was a raving lunatic

[Pericles]

The margins are all so close and nobody outran Harris by a lot. As I said before, it's random chance.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Because Walz not Shapiro was picked

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think this was a problem endemic to Casey's campaign.

All of the Senate Democrats faced the headwinds which watered down how much they were out-performing Harris, but Casey is the only one who couldn't pull off the win, somewhat surprisingly.

Obviously I'm saying this with Arizona and Nevada pending, but I'm fairly sure Gallego and Rosen will succeed.

[lfromnj]

Why isn't anyone else discussing that PA statewide R's just had a really good night in general.
The downballot guys won by 5. Its a miracle+ decent gerrymander Dems held the state house or only lose it by 1.

[Vosem]

Why isn't anyone else discussing that PA statewide R's just had a really good night in general.
The downballot guys won by 5.

Yeah, for all of the people suggesting that WI at some point will follow a IA pattern, this election really suggests that PA might be a natural red state under the current alignment. (This was also suggested in 2020, when the downballot Republicans in PA ran well ahead of Trump). 2022 belies this, but then Mastriano and Oz were stunningly bad candidates, such that I remember comparing Mastriano to Kobach, who lost Kansas -- and Oz had pretty unique vulnerabilities.

I think Casey lost because he's in an innately redder state than Rosen/Gallego/Baldwin/Slotkin, and the reason that it was "artificially" close at the presidential level is just because of very, very high levels of campaigning and targeting.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think many overestimated how much "the Casey name" would help him overperform. I always believed Casey would overperform Harris but not by much and that he could be in real danger if Harris was losing PA. Political name legacies matter less and less in the modern era and in some cases could be an outright negative with all the anti-incumbent stuff going on.

[New World Man]

The populist appeal of McCormick was too much to overcome.

[MargieCat]

Something that occurred to me was that Debbie Stabenow may have saved Democrats her senate seat.

She underperformed Whitmer in 2018 by several points, and may have lost along with Harris this cycle. By bowing out gracefully and boasting about how Michigan has such a strong Democratic bench and she can't wait to be replaced by younger Democratic talent, she may have done us a solid. Slotkin has always been able to win a sliver of Trump voters in her congressional races, and they were able to replicate that statewide.

If Bob Casey had gracefully retired, Democrats may have been able to nominate someone younger or at least someone with more pep in their step, and potentially won. Pennsylvania has a pretty good Democratic bench. Conor Lamb, Matt Cartwright, Chrissy Houlahan, etc.

[MargieCat]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1854655669883830426?s=46&t=DDrUxaEifiy...

[Progressive Pessimist]

Something that occurred to me was that Debbie Stabenow may have saved Democrats her senate seat.

She underperformed Whitmer in 2018 by several points, and may have lost along with Harris this cycle. By bowing out gracefully and boasting about how Michigan has such a strong Democratic bench and she can't wait to be replaced by younger Democratic talent, she may have done us a solid. Slotkin has always been able to win a sliver of Trump voters in her congressional races, and they were able to replicate that statewide.

If Bob Casey had gracefully retired, Democrats may have been able to nominate someone younger or at least someone with more pep in their step, and potentially won. Pennsylvania has a pretty good Democratic bench. Conor Lamb, Matt Cartwright, Chrissy Houlahan, etc.

To be fair, Casey always performed well. There wasn't much of a rrason to think he would lose this year even with the environment.

With hindsight, yes, maybe someone else would have been better.

[New World Man]

Why isn't anyone else discussing that PA statewide R's just had a really good night in general.
The downballot guys won by 5.

Yeah, for all of the people suggesting that WI at some point will follow a IA pattern, this election really suggests that PA might be a natural red state under the current alignment. (This was also suggested in 2020, when the downballot Republicans in PA ran well ahead of Trump). 2022 belies this, but then Mastriano and Oz were stunningly bad candidates, such that I remember comparing Mastriano to Kobach, who lost Kansas -- and Oz had pretty unique vulnerabilities.

I think Casey lost because he's in an innately redder state than Rosen/Gallego/Baldwin/Slotkin, and the reason that it was "artificially" close at the presidential level is just because of very, very high levels of campaigning and targeting.

WI won't go the way of IA,but I don't think PA is really redder. R's have ton's of room to grow in rural areas,and WI is way more rural than PA. Also,Milwaukee proper is losing population.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Why isn't anyone else discussing that PA statewide R's just had a really good night in general.
The downballot guys won by 5.

Yeah, for all of the people suggesting that WI at some point will follow a IA pattern, this election really suggests that PA might be a natural red state under the current alignment. (This was also suggested in 2020, when the downballot Republicans in PA ran well ahead of Trump). 2022 belies this, but then Mastriano and Oz were stunningly bad candidates, such that I remember comparing Mastriano to Kobach, who lost Kansas -- and Oz had pretty unique vulnerabilities.

I think Casey lost because he's in an innately redder state than Rosen/Gallego/Baldwin/Slotkin, and the reason that it was "artificially" close at the presidential level is just because of very, very high levels of campaigning and targeting.

I disagree with this take as so far PA GOP has only performed decently in 2016, 2020, and 2024 when Trump is on the ballot. Pennsylvania is the heart of Trumpicana, and I'm not sure if someone like say DeSantis can do well in a place like that. Midterm years in that state have always sucked for the GOP, even in 2010 Toomey barely won, as a low propensity voting population is lethal for them.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

I definitely don’t think PA is headed the way of IA at all, and the recent results make it seem quite purple. I might agree that it’s (narrowly) the most Republican of the Rust Belt trio. It’s interesting how the conventional wisdom after 2016 would be that PA would be the best of the three for the Democrats long term, followed by Michigan, then Wisconsin. I think you could make the argument that the order of the three should actually be reversed.

[Ljube]

Because McCormick was the best of the R candidates, and he was able to tie Casey to Harris early and effectively.
Furthermore, Republicans had the best turnout operation in PA.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Because McCormick was the best of the R candidates, and he was able to tie Casey to Harris early and effectively.
Furthermore, Republicans had the best turnout operation in PA.

Justice was the only good Republican Senate recruit this cycle.  Sam Brown and Tim Sheehy were meh.  The rest were dumpster fires.

[Ljube]

Because McCormick was the best of the R candidates, and he was able to tie Casey to Harris early and effectively.
Furthermore, Republicans had the best turnout operation in PA.

Justice was the only good Republican Senate recruit this cycle.  Sam Brown and Tim Sheehy were meh.  The rest were dumpster fires.

McCormick still the best of all the dumpster fires.

[Vosem]

Why isn't anyone else discussing that PA statewide R's just had a really good night in general.
The downballot guys won by 5.

Yeah, for all of the people suggesting that WI at some point will follow a IA pattern, this election really suggests that PA might be a natural red state under the current alignment. (This was also suggested in 2020, when the downballot Republicans in PA ran well ahead of Trump). 2022 belies this, but then Mastriano and Oz were stunningly bad candidates, such that I remember comparing Mastriano to Kobach, who lost Kansas -- and Oz had pretty unique vulnerabilities.

I think Casey lost because he's in an innately redder state than Rosen/Gallego/Baldwin/Slotkin, and the reason that it was "artificially" close at the presidential level is just because of very, very high levels of campaigning and targeting.

I disagree with this take as so far PA GOP has only performed decently in 2016, 2020, and 2024 when Trump is on the ballot. Pennsylvania is the heart of Trumpicana, and I'm not sure if someone like say DeSantis can do well in a place like that. Midterm years in that state have always sucked for the GOP, even in 2010 Toomey barely won, as a low propensity voting population is lethal for them.

There's something to this, but note that my biggest piece of evidence here is just that in 2020 and 2024 downballot statewide candidates have run way ahead of Trump. I think the PAGOP is kind of spectacularly incompetent, such that Mastriano/Oz were really bad candidates...as were Wagner/Barletta in 2018...and Corbett was a very unpopular incumbent in 2014. Earlier than that PA really wasn't so red -- note that it had a streak of trending Republican at all of the 2008/2012/2016/2020 elections combined, and is pretty clearly more amenable to voting Republican federally today than it was 10-15 years ago. (Romney did noticeably better in PA than in MI/WI...or even IA!)

Presidential elections and state-level elections are very different things, but for the record DeSantis's downballot coalition prefigured Trump's 2024 one in obvious ways. "DeSantis could never hold the Trump coalition" feels very odd to say -- insofar as we're talking about the 2024 coalition, rather than 2016/2020, DeSantis built it first!

[DaleCooper]

The other four took their races seriously. I have such tremendous respect for Baldwin and Slotkin especially for pulling through, even raising the alarms early, though I and many others didn't take them seriously. Rosen also got way ahead of Republicans and defined herself and her opponent early. Gallego never accepted conventional wisdom that the race wasn't competitive. Casey fell asleep at the wheel and thought his name would save him.

[here2view]

He ran the Bill Nelson 2018 campaign.

[morgieb]

I definitely don’t think PA is headed the way of IA at all, and the recent results make it seem quite purple. I might agree that it’s (narrowly) the most Republican of the Rust Belt trio. It’s interesting how the conventional wisdom after 2016 would be that PA would be the best of the three for the Democrats long term, followed by Michigan, then Wisconsin. I think you could make the argument that the order of the three should actually be reversed.

As things stand it feels like Georgia/Nevada (currently swing states but where demographic trends really seem to favour one party over the other), Wisconsin/Arizona (swing states where the theory was that they were about to flip but might be re-establishing their historic tilt) and Michigan/North Carolina (swing states where the historically stronger party still has a slight advantage, but that could be receding) are mirror images of each other, with Pennsylvania kind of standing on it's own as the key swing state. It's a bit of a weird theory, but I do agree that at this point the order from bluest to reddest is Wisconsin -> Michigan -> Pennsylvania.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Because McCormick was the best of the R candidates, and he was able to tie Casey to Harris early and effectively.
Furthermore, Republicans had the best turnout operation in PA.

Justice was the only good Republican Senate recruit this cycle.  Sam Brown and Tim Sheehy were meh.  The rest were dumpster fires.

Arguing that McCormick is a dumster fire cannidate is a dumster fire tier take after this election.

[Joe Biden 2028]

Casey hasn't lost yet. Republicans lead by 30k but 100k votes have yet to be counted.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Because McCormick was the best of the R candidates, and he was able to tie Casey to Harris early and effectively.
Furthermore, Republicans had the best turnout operation in PA.

Justice was the only good Republican Senate recruit this cycle.  Sam Brown and Tim Sheehy were meh.  The rest were dumpster fires.

Arguing that McCormick is a dumster fire cannidate is a dumster fire tier take after this election.

How so?

[MT Treasurer]

https://twitter.com/DaveMcCormickPA/status/1853853049673904245
Probably one of the most brutal ads. Saying Tester is actually a liberal is one thing, but being caught in office for 18 years while doing nothing is another.

In yet another stunning display of Republican incompetence, McCormick was also the only Republican in a competitive Senate race to actually use Biden's comments about Trump supporters being garbage in an ad against his Democratic opponent.

Like Rick Scott's team in 2018, McCormick's team wasted absolutely no time and kept the performance going and the swift attacks coming. While Rosen was nuking Brown (who had no real outside support from GOP groups at that time) on the airwaves, while Hovde was trying to "clarify" his Social Security & student loan comments, and while wbrocks & other red avatars were mocking McCormick for going on the offensive on abortion, McCormick never stopped going on the offensive and defining Casey. It was very similar to the playbook used against Bill Nelson-

We used to support him, but we’ve switched
We used to support him, but we’ve switched

He never does anything, except vote with liberals
He never does anything, except vote with liberals

He puts party first, you last
He puts party first, you last

He’s a corrupt career politician
He’s a corrupt career politician

He’s so desperate that he has to make things up
He’s so desperate that he has to make things up

Real leaders take responsibility
Real leaders take responsibility

Things are a lot more expensive than when he was first elected
Things are a lot more expensive than when he was first elected

Like Bill Nelson in 2012, Casey was the swing state Democrat to win by the largest margin in 2018. Success and the perceived absence of danger breed overconfidence (case in point: Deb Fischer). I really think Casey had an inflated ego and was privately despised by his Republican colleagues (don’t forget that PA was - embarrassingly enough - the only swing state McConnell's SLF prioritized from the get-go, and my best guess is that animosity toward Casey had at least something to do with that).

MT Treasurer's golden rule of politics: Politics, like life, is all about organization & performance, and smart performers who can sustain a smart performance will succeed while those who can’t will fail. In politics, that is almost always the Democrats, but there are exceptions to this rule (Ronald Reagan, FL GOP, Bob Casey, Susan Collins, Charlie Baker, Brian Kemp & GA GOP, ...). 

(this is also why I wouldn’t underestimate Collins & Kemp even in a Trump midterm and why I’m pretty pessimistic about MI & NC even if 2026 turns out to be a relatively neutral midterm year)