Why was Casey the only swing state Dem to lose?

[Talleyrand]

I still can't wrap my head around this one. I would have thought that several others (WI, NV, MI) would have fallen before him. What happened here? Was it just that Harris lost PA by more than WI/MI?

[icc]

Because he ran a lackadaisical campaign, expecting to run ahead of Harris enough to win based on name recognition (as has happened in previous years) and only woke up in the last couple of weeks of the campaign. Of all the swing state Dems he is undoubtedly the one who deserved to lose most based purely on effort.

[Kabam]

Republicans took this one more seriously and invested much more money here.
That is probably at least one significant reason.

[Accordion Hazard]

Because the GOP correctly targeted GA+NC+PA as the path to 270+ and PA was the only one of those where a Democrat was playing defense.

[Coldstream]

A non crazy opponent can’t have helped his chances.

[Talleyrand]

A non crazy opponent can’t have helped his chances.

You could say the same for Nevada, Michigan, or Wisconsin, though.

[windjammer]

I still can't wrap my head around this one. I would have thought that several others (WI, NV, MI) would have fallen before him. What happened here? Was it just that Harris lost PA by more than WI/MI?

Casey has Always been a lazy campaigner, remember 2012?

[Roll Roons]

A non crazy opponent can’t have helped his chances.

You could say the same for Nevada, Michigan, or Wisconsin, though.

Rosen, Slotkin and Baldwin presumably ran much more aggressive campaigns.

Also considering that they all won Trump states against male opponents, it shows that Harris losing was about more than misogyny.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The flood of "Fire Bob Casey" ads in the last month compared to relative radio silence by Casey should answer your question.

Also!  I hereby apologize for my hesitancy in believing McCormick never had a shot in this race.  I voted for him, but tbh never thought he'd unseat BC. 

[Neocon Dem]

We still don't know the outcome yet.

[RRusso1982]

I looked up Pennsylvania law.  If the final margin is less than or equal to .5%, there is an automatic recount.  Right now McCormick's lead is about 30,000 or .4%.  So it looks like when all is said and done, Casey will be entitled to a recount.

[Virginiá]

Maybe Casey can make a round of calls to PA elections officials and see if they can find him 30,000 votes. I hear that's acceptable to Americans nowadays.

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

Casey is a lazy campaigner, but it's also the fact that David "I signed a pro-gay marriage amicus brief in 2013" McCormick was better able to appeal to suburban voters than lunatics like Kari Lake or Eric "lets privatize social security" Hovde.

[henster]

Casey was badly outspent for most of the campaign and raised less than Slotkin & Allred. I think he was hurt by the perception that he was more secure and less people donated to him. Looking at the super close margin an extra $10-20M here could've made the difference.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I looked up Pennsylvania law.  If the final margin is less than or equal to .5%, there is an automatic recount.  Right now McCormick's lead is about 30,000 or .4%.  So it looks like when all is said and done, Casey will be entitled to a recount.

There's no way a recount is going to swing anything close to 30,000 votes.  A recount is only ever really going to change a result if the margin less less than 1,000.  The only time I can remember a recount changing a statewide result is the 2008 Minnesota Senate race, but there the change was just about 500 votes.

[somco]

there was a noticeable void when it came to any kind of pro-Casey messaging. McCormick ran a fairly negative campaign, but still ran a few ads boosting himself. but the Casey campaign essentially let the race be framed as a referendum on Casey himself, which considering Casey's personality just ended up being a referendum on Democratic politics

for the record, I didn't think this would matter and that Casey would win by 2-4 points regardless of whether Harris carried the state. I'm pretty stunned. but it's the easiest explanation to me

[TechbroMBA]

It could be that Elon's PAC basically doubled the GOP campaign in that state alone. A lot of effort was put into PA. Unfortunate they could have gotten 3-4 extra seats with some better efforts in other jursidictions.

[vbfox]

Casey slept walk this one. Every one of the swing state D senate else took their race seriously.

[RI]

Divine punishment for apostasy on his family's pro-life brand.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

PA was Trump's best blue wall state for one, but also Slotkin and Baldwin actually campaigned. Casey was always arrogant, and after Fetterman's easy win in 2022 he didn't really put much effort into actually campaigning while McCormick barnstormed the state daily. I feel so vindicated now after saying this was the GOP's easiest pickup in the region compared to MI and WI.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is basically a 2018 redux with Tester as Heitkamp, Brown as McCaskill and Donnelly, and Casey as Nelson.

[Flyersfan232]

I looked up Pennsylvania law.  If the final margin is less than or equal to .5%, there is an automatic recount.  Right now McCormick's lead is about 30,000 or .4%.  So it looks like when all is said and done, Casey will be entitled to a recount.

There's no way a recount is going to swing anything close to 30,000 votes.  A recount is only ever really going to change a result if the margin less less than 1,000.  The only time I can remember a recount changing a statewide result is the 2008 Minnesota Senate race, but there the change was just about 500 votes.

with a margin of about 215 at the first count caesy best case is what? down 10,000 votes

[Flyersfan232]

it is possible they are some swing voters who prefer having a senator from two party?

[ottermax]

I remember listening to some focus groups where voters remembered that Casey was pro-life but then found it weird that his campaign was focused on abortion rights.

[It's Time.]

Harris lost by the biggest rust belt margin in PA. Casey should’ve ran a better campaign though