Reasons Why the Democrats are now a coastal marginalized party

[SN2903]

1. Donald Trump changed politics. Before Trump it was a D and R country where traditional metrics decided races. When Trump came down that escalator everything changed. He was able to appeal to a wide swath of the electorate - mostly working class Americans on issues such as trade, immigration and foreign policy. This isn't going away any time soon.

2. Demographic, Demographics, Demographics: The democrats will not be able to compete long term with Trumpism slowly gaining among minority voters especially men. There isn’t enough suburban women to win them national elections. You see this in this past election with Trump garnering 55% of Hispanic men, getting a record number of Jewish voters and doing well with black men.

3. The Democrats are totally lost and have no message other than identity politics. Their calling card is to divide Americans by race, gender, sexual orientation and to totally ruin the atmosphere that existed pre-2015 ish of people doing their best to judge on people on who they are and not what they identified as politically.

4.The Midwest is going to be the ace in the hole for Republicans for the foreseeable future. The Democrats aren’t winning TX any time soon. It’s a pipe dream. The margins are going up and up in FL and TX and was 14% in both this time around. The GOP will continue to dominate in the Midwest while the Democrats try to put GA and NC on the map endlessly. The Midwest will continue to become more solid for the GOP. As long as MI, WI and PA are getting redder I fail to see how the Democrats can compete at the national Presidential level.

5. They are so culturally out of step with the average American and I don't see them shifting hard right on cultural issues which they would need to do compete by 2032. They need to give up on DEI completely, favor a very tough border policy with mass deportations, they need to oppose transgender surgeries for under 18, they need to oppose strongly men in women's sports and they need to completely have a tone shift in how they discuss these issues with Average Americans.

6. They look down on average Americans. This has been building up since as early as 2008 when Obama said that Republicans "Cling to guns and religion". Then it was the deplorables comment in 2016 to now the garbage comment in 2024 by Biden. Average working class Americans from all races cannot stand the message of the Democrat party and don't feel the party actually values they're opinion or cares about them.

7. They are totally and completely anti-men. There was a time not that long ago when the Democrats did pretty well among men. Go back to the 90s and a lot of men liked and supported Bill Clinton's more moderate Democrat party that was moderate on cultural issues. Men don't want to be told that they are inherently sexist just for being a man and to be blamed for all societal problems. They want to live in a country where they feel heard and understood. The male suicide rate is at a record high and in modern society today men are finding it harder to find their place in the world. Democrats need to start talking to men openly and honestly and supporting them as strong/if not stronger than other groups. Men are still the breadwinners in society. They have to get up every morning and work their tails off to support themselves or themselves and their families. There is a homeless crisis with men. I am a social worker and this is a huge societal problem. We are not supporting our men in society. STOP SHAMING MEN. STOP SHAMING someone just because they are not a woman.

8.They don't LISTEN to voters. For 2 years voters have consistently said their top issues were the border, inflation and the economy. Democrats kept telling voters that things were great and they were wrong. They wouldn't meet voters where they are and try to compete for their votes. This is maybe the biggest flaw they have going for themselves. They refuse to believe that it's not a message problem for them but an IDENTITY problem for them. People don't like what the party is preaching. It's not tweaking the message. It's the party itself.



Bottom line: Dems will never learn from this just like they never learned from 2016. They'll go back to their usual playbook of calling voters racist, sexist and blaming Russia. Nothing will change in their party. They're going to go the way of the whigs. They can't win at the national level with TX, FL and OH gone and WI, MI and PA getting redder and redder. They're a coastal elitist party. This was a total realignment of working class voters of all races combined with suburban college educated voters fed up with the Democrat's far left cultural agenda and who care more about illegals than our own citizens.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Everything will change when (or if) Trump is finally out of the picture.

[Existing in the context]

They say this about every party after they lose and they then somehow magically comeback.

[SN2903]

Everything will change when (or if) Trump is finally out of the picture.

No way. The issues are way too deeply rooted. This isn't an Obama phenomenon based on oratory skills/once in a generation type speaker this are issues that have been festering for decades that Trump was able to capitalize on. His message isn't going anywhere. Dream on.

[AGA]

Everything will change when (or if) Trump is finally out of the picture.

There will still be Vance.

[Frodo]

Something similar was probably said about the Republican Party after the 1932 and 1936 elections, and those (combined with the 1930 and 1934 midterms) were a more dire repudiation than anything we have experienced recently.

[Dumbo]

3. The Democrats are totally lost and have no message other than identity politics. Their calling card is to divide Americans by race, gender, sexual orientation and to totally ruin the atmosphere that existed pre 2015 ish of people doing their best to judge on people on who they are and not what they identified as politically.

gun control, climate change, health insurance and many other messages

[Senator Incitatus]

This is not the case, but it would be ironic if it were because Trump has done it by adopting a lot of Whig policy.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I will say for republicans to have a long term majority they must deliver more than tax cuts these next two years . If they want to have a long term majority they need too :

1. Actually pass something legislatively about immigration

2. Do something to address housing

3. Actually address issues regarding higher education

If republicans can do that then I can see them being the dominant party but right now it’s just an opportunity. Now they must deliver  on it

[Progressive Pessimist]

I will say for republicans to have a long term majority they must deliver more than tax cuts these next two years . If they want to have a long term majority they need too :

1. Actually pass something legislatively about immigration

2. Do something to address housing

3. Actually address issues regarding higher education

If republicans can do that then I can see them being the dominant party but right now it’s just an opportunity. Now they must deliver  on it

Pffft. This is the Republican Party you're talking about here. Other than tax cuts everything they do is performative.

[CookieDamage]

Check back in 2 years

[CosmoKramer]

K I'll bite.

1. Donald Trump changed politics. Before Trump it was the D and R country where traditional metrics decided races When Trump came down that escalator everything changed. He was able to appeal to a wide swath of the electorate - mostly working class Americans on issues such as trade, immigration and foreign policy. This isn't going away any time soon.

True. He provides a clear-cut (albeit far right) message while the Democrats did not effectively do so this cycle. This is why I supported Chase Oliver and not the (undemocratically) appointed nominee Kamala Harris.

2. Demographic, Demographics, Demographics: The democrats will not be able to compete long term with Trumpism slowly gaining among minority voters especially men. There isn’t enough suburban women to win them national elections. You see this in this past election with Trump garnering 55% of Hispanic men, getting a record number of Jewish voters and doing well with black men.

This is yet to be seen. Pretty much all of this trend took place under an unpopular Biden administration. This could very easily, and very quickly, turn around. Trumpism is also not a viable long-term strategy since it will die with the man himself.

3. The Democrats are totally lost and have no message other than identity politics. Their calling card is to divide Americans by race, gender, sexual orientation and to totally ruin the atmosphere that existed pre 2015 ish of people doing their best to judge on people on who they are and not what they identified as politically.

The Dems did not provide a meaningful message aside from being anti-Trump. They should have concentrated on the economy instead of Trump's craziness. But, unlike 2016, I do not think Harris leaned that hard into identity politics. Actually, it was the Republican Party that have been pushing identity garbage nonstop.

4.The Midwest is going to be the ace in the hole for Republicans for the foreseeable future. The Democrats aren’t winning TX any time soon. It’s a pipe dream. The GOP will continue to dominate in the Midwest while the Democrats try to put GA and NC on the map endlessly. The Midwest will continue to become more solid for the GOP. As long as MI, WI and PA are getting redder I fail to see how the Democrats can compete at the national Presidential level.

This is a lot to forecast from a single election result, bruh. Again, it comes down to disapproval with the current president. I'm willing to bet frustration with Trump will strongly benefit Democrats in the Midwest. As for Texas, you're right it doesn't bode well, but with the whole country shifting right things could change,

5. They are so culturally out of step with the average American and I don't see them shifting hard right on cultural issues which they would need to do compete by 2032. They need to give up on DEI completely, favor a very tough border policy with mass deportations, they need to oppose transgender surgeries for under 18, they need to opposite strongly men in women's sports and they need to completley have a tone shift in how they discuss these issues with Average Americans.

Harris moved way to the right on crime and immigration, and idk if she said anything about trans issues. It looks like you're asking for Democrats to become Trump Republicans on this, and that simply ain't happening, nor is it necessary for them to win.

6. They look down on average Americans. This has been building up since as early as 2008 when Obama said that Republicans "Cling to guns and religion". Then it was the deplorables comment in 2016 to now the garbage comment in 2024 by Biden. Average working class Americans from all races cannot stand the message of the Democrat party and don't feel the party actually values they're opinion or cares about them.

This one's silly and Stumblin' Joe, for all his faults, didn't say what you claim. Next.

7. They are totally and completely Anti-men. There was a time not that long ago when the Democrats did pretty well along men. Go back to the 90s and a lot of men liked and supported Bill Clinton's more moderate Democrat party. Men don't want to be told that they are inherently sexist just for being a man  and to try to blame all societal problems on them. They want to live in a country where they feel heard and understood. The male suicide rate is at a record high and in modern society today men are finding it harder to find their place in the world. Democrats need to start talking to men openly and honestly and supporting them as strong/if not stronger than other groups. Men are still the breadwinners in society. They have to get up every morning and work their tails off to support themselves or themselves and their families. There is a homeless crisis with men. I am a social worker and this is a huge societal problem. We are not supporting our men in society. STOP SHAMING MEN. STOP SHAMING someone just because they are not a woman.

Your party literally prides itself on ripping away rights from women. Not interested in this claim that sexism doesn't exist.

8.They don't LISTEN to voters. For 2 years voters have consistently said their top issues were the border, inflation and the economy. Democrats kept telling voters that things were great and they were wrong. They wouldn't meet voters where they are and try to compete for their votes. This is maybe the biggest flaw they have going for themselves. They refuse to believe that it's not a message problem for them but an IDENTITY problem for them. People don't like what the party is preaching. It's not tweaking the message. It's the party itself.

This one's correct. The party needs to clean house and start from the drawing board on how they run campaigns.

[Lief 🗽]

You sound like Democrats did after 2012. Or how Republicans did after 2004. Calm down.

[vbfox]

A lot of the swings may be due to inflatin and not bejng heard, and people understandably want change, not necessarily a permanent trend toward the right (look at UK elections)

[Redban]

I wish it were true, but things change. After we lost in 2012, they said we were headed for extinction because of racial demographics (which Trump might have dispelled, thank goodness)

[SN2903]

I will say for republicans to have a long term majority they must deliver more than tax cuts these next two years . If they want to have a long term majority they need too :

1. Actually pass something legislatively about immigration

2. Do something to address housing

3. Actually address issues regarding higher education

If republicans can do that then I can see them being the dominant party but right now it’s just an opportunity. Now they must deliver  on it

They need to deliver on the border. Trump will do that. I disagree that it has to be legislatively. Trump has a mandate to deport a large number of illegals and to have an orderly border. If the legislation involves making the process much more secure and orderly I am all for it. I agree on education, but I think the larger issue is they have to support working people - protect their benefits, stop focusing on other countries and not our own citizens. Take care of our own people. That's what the mandate is for. It's not a traditional R message.

[SN2903]

You sound like Democrats did after 2012. Or how Republicans did after 2004. Calm down.

This is a lot different than 2012 or 2004. If you don't want to accept it that's your issue. Your party is the one who needs to calm down insulting voters after losing in a landslide.

[Malikconcep]

You sound like Democrats did after 2012. Or how Republicans did after 2004. Calm down.

This is a lot different than 2012 or 2004. If you don't want to accept it that's your issue. Your party is the one who needs to calm down insulting voters after losing in a landslide.

This win is pretty much between those 2 you mentioned in terms of magnitud so how it is different than 2004 or 2012?

[Joe Rogaine]

I'm sure this won't blow up in your face eventually.

[vbfox]

Even with Reagan winning nearly all of the states in 1984, in just 8 years Clinton and Dems won. Voters are not destined to stay with the GOP or Dems

[Meclazine for Israel]

8.They don't LISTEN to voters.

I was watching PBS News Hour this morning, and their democratic voting journalists simply wont see it from the other side. They have no chance of listening, and when they do have a Republican person interviewed, they are literally snickering afterwards and rolling their eyes.

Democrats just wont go there. No empathy and most importantly, very little connection and understanding of half of the of Americans who just voted.

[angus]

Reasons Why the Democrats are now a coastal marginalized party

You make some interesting points, but don't overhype their loss.  People were saying the same thing about Republicans four years ago.  Oh, it's going to split into a traditional conservative faction and a Trumpist faction and as a result will not win any nationwide elections for a generation.  In fact, every few years whatever party loses big has to be analyzed because it is "marginalized".  

I think your analysis helps to explain their loss this year but they are not a marginalized coastal party.  For the next two years, they will be about even in the House and have between 46 and 48% of the Senate seats (counting King and Sanders).  They also control 23 of 50 governorships and about half of the state legislatures.  Not really "marginal" by most definitions.

I agree that they need to get past treating people as demographic commodities rather than individuals.  And they need to listen to voters.  I think they are learning those two lessons in this election.  

Regarding the presidential race in particular, there's not much they can learn from it except that the next time they have an octogenarian running in a primary, they need to choose someone else so they don't have to put up with him suspending his campaign three months before the general election and replacing him with a stand-in who has not been vetted in the primary process.  

[The '90s' Last Champion]

The message the electorate has delivered is clear and it is a clear rejection of the Obama/Biden/Harris iteration of the Democratic Party. Democrats clearly need to move towards the center and offer something more to middle America. I think Josh Shapiro has the chance to be a Bill Clinton-esque figure if he plays his cards right.

[SN2903]

The message the electorate has delivered is clear and it is a clear rejection of the Obama/Biden/Harris iteration of the Democratic Party. Democrats clearly need to move towards the center and offer something more to middle America. I think Josh Shapiro has the chance to be a Bill Clinton-esque figure if he plays his cards right.

Josh Shapiro, while still pretty liberal, is way too moderate to ever get the nomination.Also, the fact that he is Jewish when a large vocal minority of the Democrat party is anti-semitic will also make it virtually impossible to get it. He doesn't appeal to enough of the party. Again this encapsulates the problem they have.

[jojoju1998]

The message the electorate has delivered is clear and it is a clear rejection of the Obama/Biden/Harris iteration of the Democratic Party. Democrats clearly need to move towards the center and offer something more to middle America. I think Josh Shapiro has the chance to be a Bill Clinton-esque figure if he plays his cards right.

Josh Shapiro, while still pretty liberal, is way too moderate to ever get the nomination. He doesn't appeal to enough of the party. Again this encapsulates the problem they have.

We need someone who’s a clear cut economic populist while avoiding the culture wars.


Unfortunately we lost him last night.