ME-SEN 2026 Megathread

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Whomever gets out of the Gov race Bellows, Jackson or Owens  is gonna have to run for Senate

[Virginiá]

Contrast then with Collins - an enthusiastic outsider who wants change (without being too progressive).

I do get the feeling that Collins might have a real problem on her hands in 2026 if her challenger goes after her along the lines of DC insider who has done nothing to protect Maine's interests from Trump and has enabled his destruction of the economy and people's retirement savings. She depends on the votes of Dem-leaning independents and some Democrats to cling to power, and considering that Democrats are turning on actual Democrats for not fighting back hard enough, I really do not think her seat is safe even from a relatively unknown challenger. Also have to keep in mind that this is very likely to be an unpopular Trump midterm, probably during a recession - arguably the worst environment she's faced since 2008, and with vastly different dynamics at play that do not benefit her anymore.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

TBH, I think Sara Gideon should give it another run.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

TBH, I think Sara Gideon should give it another run.

We might as well call it for Collins then.

[GoldenMainer]

No one knows or cares about committee chair slots.  The argument against her isn’t that she’s too old, it’s that she’s a right-wing hack who is a meat puppet for the Republican party’s worst excesses.

That's a very different story than the mood on the ground in the 2020 senate race. People were saying how Collins has power in D.C., she brings home the bacon, protects Bath Iron Works and Portsmouth Shipyard jobs, etc. They do know and they do care. All politics is local.

[GoldenMainer]

@goldenmainer: who do you think will run between Mills and Golden?  And when do you think they are likely to announce?

I think Mills would be more likely to run for Senate (as she doesn't have another option). Golden has 2 small kids so I could see him go for the Governor's race to be closer to home.

I'm disappointed Troy Jackson is exploring a run for Governor. I think he'd be a smart Senate option. Erin Herbig and Adam Cote could also be interesting Senate options.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

@goldenmainer: who do you think will run between Mills and Golden?  And when do you think they are likely to announce?

I think Mills would be more likely to run for Senate (as she doesn't have another option). Golden has 2 small kids so I could see him go for the Governor's race to be closer to home.

I'm disappointed Troy Jackson is exploring a run for Governor. I think he'd be a smart Senate option. Erin Herbig and Adam Cote could also be interesting Senate options.

I definitely agree that Troy Jackson would be the best option here.  All I’m saying is that we’re better off running her than Golden unless Golden is doing a Gillibrand-type schtick as we don’t need him to beat Collins this cycle and Golden has all the bright red, flashing light danger signs of a SinemaManchin waiting to happen.  Not even a Fetterman who is a pain in the a** and does a bunch of unnecessary performative pandering while generally voting with Democrats on legislation, but someone who becomes a de facto fifth column within the Senate Caucus.  There’s simply no need to take that sort of risk in the current political environment (one which will likely only get exponentially worse for Republicans).

Troy Jackson would be ideal.  Mills would start out with a better than even-money chance of winning despite her age and if she only serves one term, that’s fine.  An open seat in six years will be a much easier lift than unseating Collins (who is herself no longer the unbeatable titan some folks here make her out to be).  

I don’t know enough about Ryan Fecteau to confidently say much about his electability except that he’d definitely have a shot, but what I do know leads me to think he’s not the right guy.  His profile gives off too much of a Portland establishment left vibe and I could at first glance see someone like him getting blown out in ME-2 even in a Democratic wave.  His profile makes me think he’s capable of blowing it or at least making it a much nearer thing than it needs to be, although it’s not like he’s completely unelectable either (but him winning would likely mean Collins getting swept out in a wave).  Let me know how accurate you think that assessment is since I don’t know too much about the guy.

Penobscot Nation Chief Kirk Francis has an interesting profile, but I’m not as big a fan of running unknowns as some on the forum.  Still, it’s not like he’s never run for anything before and if he has no skeletons/isn’t a wild-eyed online activist type, he could possibly be a decent candidate (especially if Mills and Golden pass on the race).  OTOH, he’d start off with little statewide name ID and relatively untested candidates are always a risk.

Erin Herbig is from ME-2 and likely has some decent institutional connections, but I don’t know enough about her to comment except that at first glance she seems like she could be a decent pick, but not our best option.

There are various folks like State Senator Nicole Grohoski in the state legislature from ME-2 who might be worth a look as well (at least on paper), but idk enough about them to speculate about their strength or lack thereof.

Adam Cote strikes me as a generic south Maine has-been that never was.  I think running him would definitely be a mistake.  He won’t eat into Collins’ ME-2 margin, he is fairly untested aside from one unsuccessful primary campaign, will start with low name ID, is from a less than ideal part of the state for this race, and has no apparent unique strengths to counteract these weaknesses.  I see no reason to consider running him.

I don’t know why Cathy Breen is looking at the race, but she ain’t it.  That former CoS to Katie Porter might as well have been grown in a lab to have the worst possible profile/background for the race; he’d be a disaster.

Of course, if Jared Golden runs then I’ll be shocked if the DSCC doesn’t try to coronate him. 

[GoldenMainer]

I don’t know enough about Ryan Fecteau to confidently say much about his electability except that he’d definitely have a shot, but what I do know leads me to think he’s not the right guy.  His profile gives off too much of a Portland establishment left vibe and I could at first glance see someone like him getting blown out in ME-2 even in a Democratic wave.  His profile makes me think he’s capable of blowing it or at least making it a much nearer thing than it needs to be, although it’s not like he’s completely unelectable either (but him winning would likely mean Collins getting swept out in a wave).  Let me know how accurate you think that assessment is since I don’t know too much about the guy.

Erin Herbig is from ME-2 and likely has some decent institutional connections, but I don’t know enough about her to comment except that at first glance she seems like she could be a decent pick, but not our best option.

Adam Cote strikes me as a generic south Maine has-been that never was.  I think running him would definitely be a mistake.  He won’t eat into Collins’ ME-2 margin, he is fairly untested aside from one unsuccessful primary campaign, will start with low name ID, is from a less than ideal part of the state for this race, and has no apparent unique strengths to counteract these weaknesses.  I see no reason to consider running him.

I agree with your assessment of Fecteau. I don't mind him but he's not a statewide candidate. I could see him go for governor one day though or even join a clown car primary when Chellie Pingree retires.

Herbig is from ME-2 and has served in the Maine Legislature (pre-Trump so she avoids any possible controversies of the Trump era). She's also only 44 and is now a city manager. And let's be honest, she's very attractive which helps with some voters.

I disagree with your assessment of Adam Cote. He performed very well in the 2018 gubernatorial primary against Mills, finishing in 2nd. He not only performed strong in ME-1 but he also won Aroostook County in a surprise. He's an Iraq War vet which always helps someone's profile (and he could use this effectively to attack Trump's VA cuts). He has the southern Maine ties to do well there with the profile that plays well in northern Maine. Plus, he's not a career politician so he could attack Collins there too. I'd be curious to see how he'd do.

[MargieCat]

From the Downballot/David Nir:

While Gov. Janet Mills hasn't ruled out challenging Republican Sen. Susan Collins, the Bangor Daily News' Billy Kobin has a look at several other Maine Democrats who are publicly or privately considering running against the five-term incumbent.

The most prominent name on Kobin's list belongs to state House Speaker Ryan Fecteau, who would be the first gay person to represent Maine in the upper chamber. Fecteau said, "I haven't made any decisions," when the reporter asked him about his interest in taking on Collins. Last year, he didn't dismiss chatter that he could instead run to replace Mills, who is termed out of her current job.

Former congressional staffer Jordan Wood, meanwhile, said he was "thinking seriously about what my role in that looks like, including as a candidate." Politico reported last week that Wood was informing people he plans to run, though he did not tell Kobin that he's already made up his mind.

Former state Sen. Cathy Breen also didn't rule anything out when asked about her plans, saying she was "not in a position to discuss yet" whether she might challenge Collins. Kobin also writes that Penobscot Nation Chief Kirk Francis is interested, though Francis hasn't said anything publicly.

One prominent politician that Kobin does not mention is Rep. Jared Golden. In January, BDN reporter Michael Shepherd said Golden January was one of the three Democrats whom party operatives were "confident" would run to replace Mills. (The other two were Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who entered the race last month, and former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who has formed an exploratory committee.)

Other Democrats, though, haven't given up trying to recruit Golden to take on Collins. CNN's Edward-Isaac Dovere this week identified him as the party's top choice for Senate and said that the congressman was "still weighing" what to do. Golden told Axios' Andrew Solender earlier this month he was "running for reelection to my seat as far as I know, but I'll look at statewide offices."

But while the congressman said he was "not taking anything off the table," it would still be a surprise if he decided to campaign against Collins. Golden began his political career as a Collins staffer, and he remained conspicuously neutral in her competitive 2020 reelection battle against Democrat Sara Gideon.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

Another state House speaker from Portland would show Democrats have really learned no lessons.

[Spectator]

In Maine, a former Capitol Hill chief of staff who worked at the Democratic group End Citizens United has told multiple people he will soon launch a campaign, but most eyes remain on Rep. Jared Golden, the four-term congressman whose most recent break with his party was being the sole House Democrat to vote for the GOP’s stopgap funding bill. He’s still weighing what to run, leaving Maine Democrats thinking of 77-year-old Gov. Janet Mills as their possible backup.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/20/politics/democrat-crisis-recruitment-campaigns/index.html

Never underestimate the power of the DSCC to persuade. Most people a few months ago would’ve scoffed at the idea of Golden running against Collins.

Dems here won’t like it, but Golden is easily the best positioned to take on Collins: “I worked for Collins, and while I appreciate her service, it’s time for fresh blood after 30 years.” I think running a nasty partisan race against Collins would only work with an established figure like Mills. Mainers are weirdos who place a premium on “politeness” and “independence.”

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

I really, really hope Golden runs. He's probably the only person who can beat Collins (and that's not even guaranteed), and he's more a Conor Lamb than a Joe Manchin (not that Manchin was bad). He would be fantastic as a Senator. ME-01 will give whatever Democrat runs a huge boost, but Golden can also cut into Collins's Assad margins in ME-02. No other Democrat can really do that.

However, I'll repeat it again: I highly doubt he runs. When your whole shtick is being a bipartisan moderate, you don't run against a bipartisan moderate from the other party. That just makes you look partisan, because you vote the same way on most things so your argument basically gets boiled down to "vote for me because my party should have the majority". And when your whole thing is to appear as nonpartisan as possible, you don't want to do that. And besides, Golden worked for Collins before.

[YE]

They should be recruiting Troy Jackson.

[MargieCat]

They should be recruiting Troy Jackson.

That's who I want.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

They should be recruiting Troy Jackson.

That's who I want.

He could be good. Maybe he's running for Governor instead.

[ConDemocrat]

They should be recruiting Troy Jackson.

That's who I want.

He could be good. Maybe he's running for Governor instead.

He's already formed an exploratory committee to run for Governor. He's not running for Senate.

[MargieCat]

They should be recruiting Troy Jackson.

That's who I want.

He could be good. Maybe he's running for Governor instead.

He's already formed an exploratory committee to run for Governor. He's not running for Senate.

The gubernatorial primary is already becoming a clowncar.

Maybe the senate primary will be a more appealing option.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

They should be recruiting Troy Jackson.

That's who I want.

He could be good. Maybe he's running for Governor instead.

He's already formed an exploratory committee to run for Governor. He's not running for Senate.

The gubernatorial primary is already becoming a clowncar.

Maybe the senate primary will be a more appealing option.

This far out, that certainly can't be ruled out.

[henster]

Golden would be in for a rough ride in the primary for Governor I doubt Bellows and others would let him off the hook for his votes. No one seems to be deferring to him either so he isn't scaring anyone away meanwhile Senate is wide open.

[ConDemocrat]

Personally I like the idea of Mills for Senate much more than, for example, Cooper for Senate. In NC you have the issue that even if you win the seat will open up again almost immediately and will be a very difficult hold. I would rather try our luck with Wiley Nickel.

In ME I think it's a different equation. It's a much bluer state. Without Collins, it will be difficult for Republicans to compete. I'm comfortable sending Mills as a one-term 'assassin' to takeout Collins and in six years we'll still have wonderful odds of holding ME as an open seat. This feels like the right strategy.

I also sense a lot of potential for Golden to backfire. If he's going to campaign for Senate while praising Trump's tariffs it's going to make Collins look so much more reasonable in comparison if she even lightly criticizes the tariffs. Imagine a situation where during an economic downturn Collins is airing ads of Golden praising Trump's tariffs. That would be disastrous. Any other Democrat would be able to link Collins to the tariffs instead.

[Virginiá]

Personally I like the idea of Mills for Senate much more than, for example, Cooper for Senate. In NC you have the issue that even if you win the seat will open up again almost immediately and will be a very difficult hold. I would rather try our luck with Wiley Nickel.

?

If Cooper won, he would serve for 6 years. It's not a special election. In fact, he would be up again in 2032, which is a presidential year and depending how 2028 goes, it might be better for Democrats. Either a Dem POTUS is up for reelection or a Republican wins 28 and 2032 ends up being even more of a "change" election.

Even as far as age goes, Cooper will be ~69 or so in 2026, and Mills will be 79. It's possible she wouldn't even live through a full six year term.

[wbrocks67]

The Axios article makes it seem like Mills is actually open to the idea, which I hadn't expected she actually would be.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=318168.675
Here is the link from the 2020 race, in case people wanted to see Atlas' thoughts at the time. To be clear, I'm not attacking anyone for their predictions as the whole point of this site is to discuss and learn from elections. If we mock people who get it wrong, then it ruins the purpose of the forum. Personally, even I thought Collins would lose Maine because I thought the partisan headwinds would be too much. I think I wrote down Gideon+4 or something like that for my Conservacord prediction?

Golden is absolutely a stronger candidate than Mills. A 79 year-old governor seeking a freshman term after what happened with Feinstein and Biden is insane. Is Mills even that popular? MC does give her a positive approval rating, but what that leaves out is every governor (except Reynolds) also has one. She isn't anywhere on the same tier as someone like Shapiro or Kemp. And even still, she is in the bottom 4 of that list beating out only Reynolds, McKee, and Kotek. One of Collins biggest appeals in the state like GoldenMainer mentioned is her seniority and ability to bring things home through the state. Mills would have none of that, and due to her age she would be on the back burner for any of that. Golden is still young enough that he could hold that seat and upgrade his power over time.

Collins also has a few more advantages going into 2026 than last cycle. There is no Kavanaugh style vote coming up in the immediate future. If Trump does nominate a SCOTUS nominee that has some controversy, she can simply vote no as Rs have a 53 seat majority. Similarly, the other main thing Dems used against her in 2020 was the first impeachment vote but that's not really an issue anymore. She even voted to convict Trump after Jan 6. People mention Dobbs, but its not 2022 and abortion pretty much legal up till birth in Maine so that issue isn't nearly as significant. Golden can at least present a new path for Maine, whereas Mills can only run an outdated partisan dogfight all while being older than Collins herself.

[YE]

Polarization is also lower than in 2020 (possibly) and there’s no presidential election to drag her down, though I imagine she isn’t popular with high prosperity voters.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Polarization is also lower than in 2020 (possibly) and there’s no presidential election to drag her down, though I imagine she isn’t popular with high prosperity voters.

Wouldn't old rich people in Maine be one of Collin's best demographics?