ME-SEN 2026 Megathread

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

There is a good chance Golden's explicitly pro-tariff position makes him toxic in the primary, if not the general (depending on how things play out over the next year), so I wouldn't get your hopes up.

That’s what’s confusing about him. His actions aren’t the hallmark of someone angling to run statewide: not endorsing Harris, tariffs, SAVE Act. He’s a goner in a gubernatorial primary for sure. I still suspect Dems are willing to tolerate a lot so long as it means beating Collins in the Senate race, though.

We don’t need him to beat Collins though

[DaleCooper]

Two problems here-

1) Reflexive liberals & hardcore anti-Trumpists don’t make up a majority of Maine's electorate, not even in a midterm. Dems have a way higher floor here than in the past, but it’s still quite a bit below 50%. You need to convince a lot of former Collins voters & moderates who still approve of Collins, most of whom won’t admit to having been fooled by her.

2) Incumbent Senators can get away with a lot if they’ve built up trust in their state, especially in smaller (population-wise) states like ME and MT. Tester is the perfect example for this on the Democratic side — he lost, but it was a way tougher race than it ever should have been if you just looked at his voting record/past statements, and he still overperformed Harris by a lot.

The case against Collins should make it clear that she cannot be trusted to lead the state into the future because she hasn’t been able to change the present (career politicians can’t do that). "COLLINS IS LIKE TRUMP" and billions in donations from basement liberals/resisters like in 2020 is probably not the way to go, but it’s a serious danger for Ds given how nationalized this race will (again) be.

I've never understood why they fail to tie Collins to the Republican swamp creature industrial complex rather than Trump himself. I know that liberals are allergic to admitting that the past was better, but does anyone honestly think that America is better now than it was before Susan Collins became a Senator 30 years ago? That's a much better way to target her. She's an elderly careerist who hasn't taken a stand against anything this century. There's really no need to mention Trump because everything wrong with Collins that would on paper make her unfit to represent Maine has long predated Trump.

[henster]

Two problems here-

1) Reflexive liberals & hardcore anti-Trumpists don’t make up a majority of Maine's electorate, not even in a midterm. Dems have a way higher floor here than in the past, but it’s still quite a bit below 50%. You need to convince a lot of former Collins voters & moderates who still approve of Collins, most of whom won’t admit to having been fooled by her.

2) Incumbent Senators can get away with a lot if they’ve built up trust in their state, especially in smaller (population-wise) states like ME and MT. Tester is the perfect example for this on the Democratic side — he lost, but it was a way tougher race than it ever should have been if you just looked at his voting record/past statements, and he still overperformed Harris by a lot.

The case against Collins should make it clear that she cannot be trusted to lead the state into the future because she hasn’t been able to change the present (career politicians can’t do that). "COLLINS IS LIKE TRUMP" and billions in donations from basement liberals/resisters like in 2020 is probably not the way to go, but it’s a serious danger for Ds given how nationalized this race will (again) be.

I've never understood why they fail to tie Collins to the Republican swamp creature industrial complex rather than Trump himself. I know that liberals are allergic to admitting that the past was better, but does anyone honestly think that America is better now than it was before Susan Collins became a Senator 30 years ago? That's a much better way to target her. She's an elderly careerist who hasn't taken a stand against anything this century. There's really no need to mention Trump because everything wrong with Collins that would on paper make her unfit to represent Maine has long predated Trump.

The clip of her promising to serve only two terms back in the 90s should be devastating if used by the right type of candidate. The 'fire the career politician' type of messaging is very effective in ousting longtime incumbents. This is why I think Mills would be the wrong type of candidate here since she herself is a longtime politician.

[MargieCat]

Didn't Golden basically endorse Larry Hogan in 2024?

He'd be a nightmare for Dems in the senate. I could even see him switching parties and basically being unbeatable like Susan Collins. And there's no way he reforms the filibuster.

I could see if Maine were a 3x Trump state. But it was 3x Dem state.

I'm willing to throw Jared Golden a bone in the form of the governorship if it means he does not run for senate.

[MT Treasurer]

Two problems here-

1) Reflexive liberals & hardcore anti-Trumpists don’t make up a majority of Maine's electorate, not even in a midterm. Dems have a way higher floor here than in the past, but it’s still quite a bit below 50%. You need to convince a lot of former Collins voters & moderates who still approve of Collins, most of whom won’t admit to having been fooled by her.

2) Incumbent Senators can get away with a lot if they’ve built up trust in their state, especially in smaller (population-wise) states like ME and MT. Tester is the perfect example for this on the Democratic side — he lost, but it was a way tougher race than it ever should have been if you just looked at his voting record/past statements, and he still overperformed Harris by a lot.

The case against Collins should make it clear that she cannot be trusted to lead the state into the future because she hasn’t been able to change the present (career politicians can’t do that). "COLLINS IS LIKE TRUMP" and billions in donations from basement liberals/resisters like in 2020 is probably not the way to go, but it’s a serious danger for Ds given how nationalized this race will (again) be.

I've never understood why they fail to tie Collins to the Republican swamp creature industrial complex rather than Trump himself. I know that liberals are allergic to admitting that the past was better, but does anyone honestly think that America is better now than it was before Susan Collins became a Senator 30 years ago? That's a much better way to target her. She's an elderly careerist who hasn't taken a stand against anything this century. There's really no need to mention Trump because everything wrong with Collins that would on paper make her unfit to represent Maine has long predated Trump.

Any competent Democrat (read: not an out-of-touch career politician propped up by national liberals, D.C. strategists and #resist cash) would have tied Collins to the worst, most unappealing elements of the Republican Party and (just as importantly) exploited her weak standing with the GOP base in the process: these were never mutually exclusive! The fact that she got away with consolidating the GOP vote and swaying moderates on the fence is a very damning indictment of the Sara Gideon campaign.

The fact that Democrats weren’t even able to turn this into a negative for the Collins camp is just downright sad but to expected given the narrow anti-Trump focus of the party and its shocking revisionist history of the Bush era. Any smart Democrat with a finger on the pulse of the electorate would have had a field day with this, yet Collins was somehow the one who ran with it. But hey, "orange man = bad."

[henster]

Didn't Golden basically endorse Larry Hogan in 2024?

He'd be a nightmare for Dems in the senate. I could even see him switching parties and basically being unbeatable like Susan Collins. And there's no way he reforms the filibuster.

I could see if Maine were a 3x Trump state. But it was 3x Dem state.

I'm willing to throw Jared Golden a bone in the form of the governorship if it means he does not run for senate.

He did vote for the IRA and seems to vote the right way when it could actually make a difference he never frayed from voting for Jeffries for example. Voting for bills that have no chance of becoming law like the SAVE Act could be more strategic than his actual beliefs.

[Eastern Washington Democrat]

Didn't Golden basically endorse Larry Hogan in 2024?

He'd be a nightmare for Dems in the senate. I could even see him switching parties and basically being unbeatable like Susan Collins. And there's no way he reforms the filibuster.

I could see if Maine were a 3x Trump state. But it was 3x Dem state.

I'm willing to throw Jared Golden a bone in the form of the governorship if it means he does not run for senate.

He did vote for the IRA and seems to vote the right way when it could actually make a difference he never frayed from voting for Jeffries for example. Voting for bills that have no chance of becoming law like the SAVE Act could be more strategic than his actual beliefs.

EXACTLY. So many people on this board, particularly on my side of the aisle, have no clue what it means to have political skill and actually use it.

[Existing in the context]

He more likely to pull a Walz/Gillibrand than be another Sinema. Maine is a blue state not a red or purple state like AZ or WV. The idea he would switch party after winning the Senate seat is ludicrous. If he wanted to switch parties the best time was between 22 and 24. He represents the most Trump district than any federal Democrats right now. He's doing this for a reason. Especially if he wants to keep running for reelection in 26 on the table.

[YE]

Golden never struck me as a true believer but rather someone trying to vote a certain way because he represented a right leaving district. But his embrace of Trump’s tariffs given the possible repercussions give me pause about his political instincts and I’d rather not take a chance of another Manchin/Sinema.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Yeah, Golden ain’t it.  We’re better off running Mills as we very much don’t need him to beat Collins

[GoldenMainer]

While I agree we don't need Golden given how crappy he has become, do we really want a Senator entering their first term at the ripe age of 79 (Janet Mills)? After what we went through with Feinstein and Biden? Really?

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

While I agree we don't need Golden given how crappy he has become, do we really want a Senator entering their first term at the ripe age of 79 (Janet Mills)? After what we went through with Feinstein and Biden? Really?

As long as she beats Collins, who cares?

[GoldenMainer]

While I agree we don't need Golden given how crappy he has become, do we really want a Senator entering their first term at the ripe age of 79 (Janet Mills)? After what we went through with Feinstein and Biden? Really?

As long as she beats Collins, who cares?

I don't think she will. If the argument against Collins is that she's a career politician who's been there for 30 years, we put someone against her who was first appointed to a government position in the 1970s?

If we try to say we need fresh blood as a reason to oust Collins, we prop up someone in their late 70s?

Susan Collins is the chair of the Appropriations Committee so y'all are going to have to be very strategic in choosing someone to oust her. Mainers aren't going to just give up Appropriations Chair easily.

[henster]

Golden is the most ideal recruit because in order for any Republican to win in Maine they need to rack up big margins in ME-02. Even a slight overperformance in his district against Collins and she's a goner, no one else can do that.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Golden is the most ideal recruit because in order for any Republican to win in Maine they need to rack up big margins in ME-02. Even a slight overperformance in his district against Collins and she's a goner, no one else can do that.

Collins also did very well in ME-01. She held Gideon to a mere 3-4 victory there, so  Dems would also need to run it up significantly in the south. Biden/Harris won it by over 20 points.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

While I agree we don't need Golden given how crappy he has become, do we really want a Senator entering their first term at the ripe age of 79 (Janet Mills)? After what we went through with Feinstein and Biden? Really?

As long as she beats Collins, who cares?

I don't think she will. If the argument against Collins is that she's a career politician who's been there for 30 years, we put someone against her who was first appointed to a government position in the 1970s?

If we try to say we need fresh blood as a reason to oust Collins, we prop up someone in their late 70s?

Susan Collins is the chair of the Appropriations Committee so y'all are going to have to be very strategic in choosing someone to oust her. Mainers aren't going to just give up Appropriations Chair easily.

No one knows or cares about committee chair slots.  The argument against her isn’t that she’s too old, it’s that she’s a right-wing hack who is a meat puppet for the Republican party’s worst excesses.

[SnowLabrador]

Mark my words: The DSCC will coronate Mills, who will lose to Collins despite leading in most polls. I don't know if Collins is beatable at all, but Mills would be a poor choice for more reasons than one.

[Spectator]

Golden is the most ideal recruit because in order for any Republican to win in Maine they need to rack up big margins in ME-02. Even a slight overperformance in his district against Collins and she's a goner, no one else can do that.

Collins also did very well in ME-01. She held Gideon to a mere 3-4 victory there, so  Dems would also need to run it up significantly in the south. Biden/Harris won it by over 20 points.

I don't think Golden or most Dems will have much issue winning ME-01 by more than Gideon did next year with the lopsided turnout coalitions. Collins very likely benefited from sharing the ticket with Trump, much like other Republicans did in 2020 and 2016 before that.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

Mark my words: The DSCC will coronate Mills, who will lose to Collins despite leading in most polls. I don't know if Collins is beatable at all, but Mills would be a poor choice for more reasons than one.

You hope

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Mark my words: The DSCC will coronate Mills, who will lose to Collins despite leading in most polls. I don't know if Collins is beatable at all, but Mills would be a poor choice for more reasons than one.

Alright, consider your words marked. What happens if this doesn’t come to pass?

[SnowLabrador]

Mark my words: The DSCC will coronate Mills, who will lose to Collins despite leading in most polls. I don't know if Collins is beatable at all, but Mills would be a poor choice for more reasons than one.

Alright, consider your words marked. What happens if this doesn’t come to pass?

Then I'll admit I was wrong, and be very happy that Collins lost.

[Spectator]

@goldenmainer: who do you think will run between Mills and Golden?  And when do you think they are likely to announce?

[CentristRepublican]

Didn't Golden basically endorse Larry Hogan in 2024?

He'd be a nightmare for Dems in the senate. I could even see him switching parties and basically being unbeatable like Susan Collins. And there's no way he reforms the filibuster.

I could see if Maine were a 3x Trump state. But it was 3x Dem state.

I'm willing to throw Jared Golden a bone in the form of the governorship if it means he does not run for senate.

If he was going to switch to the GOP, why wouldn't he have done so already? While representing a 3x Trump district? It would be much safer as far as preserving his political career goes, than running with a (D) next to his name each time - it nearly did him in just last year (a 50.2-49.7% victory while running in a Trump+9 seat).

On all substantive votes, he's with the Dems. His "moderate" image and his occasional protest votes are every bit as performative as Collins' (only in the opposite direction). This schtick may be annoying to us, but it's necessary given where he is right now. There's little to no doubt in my mind that in the Senate, he'd be a pretty reliable party vote on most things - a la Gillibrand, if you like.

[CentristRepublican]

Yeah, Golden ain’t it.  We’re better off running Mills as we very much don’t need him to beat Collins

No ing thanks. Mills is nearing 80, what happened to less octogenarians in politics? Instead we're talking about putting one in an open seat!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah I tend to agree neither Mills or Golden would be my preferred candidates, for different reasons, but honestly, I'm not sure who else to run. This seems like a good opportunity for Dems to try the "run an outsider, or at least someone who's lower profile politically like a state senator or mayor. Contrast then with Collins - an enthusiastic outsider who wants change (without being too progressive).

I honestly worry that Dems will fall into a trap where they nominate a bunch of old people for key Senate races because they're seen as the most electable (Mills, Cooper, Brown), only to underperform, but even if they win it means you'll have a bunch of vulnerable open seats in 2032 (or sooner if someone dies). It's also just a bad look for the party to have so many of your candidates in key races be relatively uncharismatic old people.