🇩🇪 German federal election, 23 February 2025

[kelestian]

Anyone care to do a socioeconomic analysis of the strongholds and weak points of the different parties in Berlin?

I have been only some days in Berlin, the Germans can answer better. But from what I believe:

CDU: mainstream wealthy in the west
Green: hipster wealthy in the west
Linke: urban working class, hipsters in the east
AfD: lower middle class suburbans

Also for Linke, Neukolln, Wedding and to some degree Kreuzberg -diverse multi-ethnic areas

[Crazy Steve]

I wonder how long it will take to create and swear in the new government in Germany ...

Almost 3 months in the US, 5 months in Austria, half a year in the Netherlands.

[Crazy Steve]

I would also like to congratulate President Johnson on his very accurate prediction in the German election predictions thread... which is locked. I think he had the best prediction of all, even better than mine. I thought the AfD would do slightly better, but exceptionally high turnout in cities turned out many Linke voters and kept them at 21% instead of my estimate of 23%. I think a lot of Linke voters were motivated to vote because of Trump's election and it scared them. Among other factors.

[President Johnson]

I would also like to congratulate President Johnson on his very accurate prediction in the German election predictions thread... which is locked. I think he had the best prediction of all, even better than mine. I thought the AfD would do slightly better, but exceptionally high turnout in cities turned out many Linke voters and kept them at 21% instead of my estimate of 23%. I think a lot of Linke voters were motivated to vote because of Trump's election and it scared them. Among other factors.

Thanks. I did lock the thread as the election is over, but seems like some user like to reopen it?

Edit: I unlocked it.

[minionofmidas]

Slightly different scale on these due to the vote distribution, also did that four years ago

The FDP and Left maps are clear enough, and the BSW pockets around Kassel and east and especially southwest of Frankfurt, and of course the Taunus and Fulda weakness, make sense, but there's no rhyme or reason to the results elsewhere. Delightfully random really.

That turnout map otoh is remarkably clear. They've always looked much more chaotic in the past. You get <80 turnouts in a number of provincial and industrial towns (Eschwege, Korbach, Bebra, Stadtallendorf...), in Hanau/Offenbach/Rüsselsheim, in a couple geriatric rehab centers (Orb and Wildungen) - and in Selters, which apart from the original home of mineral water is the European headquarters of Jehova's Witnesses and is ~10% JW as a result. (Members of the church move here to work for it here. They print their pamphlets themselves, for one.)





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[President Johnson]

So Merz is really doing everything he can to piss off the SPD, huh. He really cannot control himself, whether it's insulting the voters directly or slighting the other co-chair of the party. He does realize that the SPD base needs to approve the coalition agreement, right?

Meanwhile, our favorite demagogue Markus Söder is the one being very conciliatory.

I wouldn't say he did "everything" to piss off SPD. He certainly made a few blunders, but he has also repeatedly stated that he is not gloating over the horrendous 16% for SPD. Recent reports from today’s talks indicate that Merz explicitly acknowledged that a strong SPD is in Germany's best interest and that it should represent the center-left of the political spectrum, while the Union covers the center-right. I also noticed Merz sending a gracious note to congratulate Klingbeil on his election as the caucus leader of a "proud SPD." Even Söder has repeatedly pointed out that the SPD was the last man standing against the Hitler regime.

While the Union should never have introduced this resolution and vote with the AfD (which ultimately boosted Die Linke), it was unfair to accuse Merz of seeking a coalition with them or to label him a right-wing extremist. He is neither of those things, nor is he some kind of soft version of Trump.

Both sides need to dial down the rhetoric and get back to work to address our problems. This is how we can reduce support for AfD. That’s also why I prioritize the country over party and will almost certainly vote for the coalition agreement, unless it’s truly, truly awful. I want Merz and the incoming government to succeed, as the alternative is much worse. And the end of European integration as we know it.

[President Johnson]

I wonder whether the newest escalation between Zelenskyy and Trump gives new momentum to a last minute deal to expand the Bundeswehr's special fund by another 200 billion Euros. It's now more clear than ever that the transatlantic alliance is dead and the US unreliable for the foreseeable future.

[President Johnson]

Friedrich Merz officially came out against electing a member of the AfD faction to be vice president of the Bundestag. Traditonally, the largest parliamentary faction nominates the president and each other faction gets to select a vice president. All must be elected by a majority on the floor, and typically nominees receive robust majorities across party lines. Over the last two terms, several AfD candidates were rejected as Union, SPD, Greens, FDP and Linke universally blocked all their nominees. AfD even filled a lawsuit in the past, arguing that the party was entitled to a vice president, which was dismissed by courts.

"This office is a state office," Merz told Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. He would "not recommend to the Union faction to elect an AfD representative to a state office". In an unsual move, SPD's Ralf Stegner, a prominent member of the party's left wing, praised Merz for his stance.

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/nein-zu-afd-vizeprasidenten-spd-politiker-loben-merz-13295617.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am working on some party vote maps by constituency at present. I have a lot of actual work on as well so things are a little slower than usual. A few notes in advance about colours. For the AfD I've been trying to work out how to represent both East and West effectively on the same map; e.g. we do have the issue that a 'high' vote in the West is a 'low' vote in the East and vice versa. Sepia seems to work fairly well. I have shifted the colour for Die Linke to more of a rosy pink running to reddish purple than the previous violet, which I feel suits them better, especially these days. I have opted for terracotta for the BSW: yes, it's an obvious snark (I'm cheap, you know that) but it does also work well for their range.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Purple has a tradition that goes back to representing the PDS on such diagrams and maps since 1990.

[minionofmidas]

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[minionofmidas]

Just three more before I stop, I think

Because if you think Frankfurt's geography is odd, look at Wiesbaden and Kassel. Darmstadt also included.
The Left has been able to win Kassel's northside for a while, no real surprise there but I definitely didn't expect them to win Wiesbaden's West End. There's a population distribution map included.



(this was meant to be one post but wouldn't go thru somehow)

[Crazy Steve]

I wonder how long it will take to create and swear in the new government in Germany ...

Almost 3 months in the US, 5 months in Austria, half a year in the Netherlands.

With recent events, Trump being unpredictable and abandoning Europe/Nato, it will probably go very quickly. There's no time to waste for Union/SPD to form their government. Europe and Germany's economy need Merz sooner than later.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

I wonder how long it will take to create and swear in the new government in Germany ...

Almost 3 months in the US, 5 months in Austria, half a year in the Netherlands.

With recent events, Trump being unpredictable and abandoning Europe/Nato, it will probably go very quickly. There's no time to waste for Union/SPD to form their government. Europe and Germany's economy need Merz sooner than later.

Talk of the town is Merz being sworn in in late April/early May if everything goes smooth. Though there arguably has never been that much external pressure to German government formation.

[President Johnson]

I wonder how long it will take to create and swear in the new government in Germany ...

Almost 3 months in the US, 5 months in Austria, half a year in the Netherlands.

With recent events, Trump being unpredictable and abandoning Europe/Nato, it will probably go very quickly. There's no time to waste for Union/SPD to form their government. Europe and Germany's economy need Merz sooner than later.

Talk of the town is Merz being sworn in in late April/early May if everything goes smooth. Though there arguably has never been that much external pressure to German government formation.

That's what I expect. For that reason, I'm fairly confident SPD membership vote will easily pass in favor of the coalition agreement. I already plan to vote yes unless the contract is extremely poor, which I doubt. I voted for the 2013 coalition agreement as well, but against in 2018.

[You are responsible]

Last year the number of people who sought asylum in Germany dropped by 30% btw.

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/gesellschaft/starker-ruckgang-in-deutschland-zahl-der-asylantrage-in-europa-um-elf-prozent-gesunken-13303573.html

Most requests for asylum per capita happened in Greece und Cyprus.

[minionofmidas]

To recap the result in Hamburg was SPD 22.7 CDU 20.7 Green 19.3 Left 14.4 AfD 10.7
A week later in the city elections, it's SPD 33.5 CDU 19.8 Green 18.5 Left 11.2 AfD 7.5

What a graphical difference small swings make when you get one from absolutely everybody (incl FDP and BSW)This is a sneak preview of a work in progress, party strengths to follow.
But should they be one huge file per election, or one small file per party like here?

[President Johnson]

Exploration talks between Union and SPD go smooth so far. No leaks, participants describe the atmosphere contructive and serious.

Today, there was a major announcement: Union and SPD announced initial agreements on a multi-billion-euro funding package for defense and infrastructure. According to Friedrich Merz, all defense spending exceeding one percent of GDP will be exempt from debt brake restrictions. Additionally, a new special fund of 500 billion euros for infrastructure spending over ten years will be created, with SPD Secretary General Lars Klingbeil specifying that 100 billion euros will be allocated to the states.

The Union and SPD factions plan to submit proposals for amendments to the Basic Law in the old Bundestag next week. Klingbeil also mentioned that both parties aim to advance a reform of the debt brake in the newly elected Bundestag by the end of the year.

Merz stated that discussions between the parties will continue on Thursday and Friday, with the goal of concluding the talks "promptly." He emphasized the importance of addressing the significant challenges ahead and indicated that the decisions made today are just the first necessary steps, suggesting that this could be the beginning of a "long journey."

[Angel of Death]

In other news, CDU and CSU are totally getting their priorities straight and are totally not divisive

*declaring another electoral law reform one of the most pressing issue, as they feel disadvantaged by full proportional representation.

Could you give any more details and/or sources for this? Were they being concrete in how exactly they would like to see the electoral system changed?

[You are responsible]

Exploration talks between Union and SPD go smooth so far. No leaks, participants describe the atmosphere contructive and serious.

Today, there was a major announcement: Union and SPD announced initial agreements on a multi-billion-euro funding package for defense and infrastructure. According to Friedrich Merz, all defense spending exceeding one percent of GDP will be exempt from debt brake restrictions. Additionally, a new special fund of 500 billion euros for infrastructure spending over ten years will be created, with SPD Secretary General Lars Klingbeil specifying that 100 billion euros will be allocated to the states.

The Union and SPD factions plan to submit proposals for amendments to the Basic Law in the old Bundestag next week. Klingbeil also mentioned that both parties aim to advance a reform of the debt brake in the newly elected Bundestag by the end of the year.

Merz stated that discussions between the parties will continue on Thursday and Friday, with the goal of concluding the talks "promptly." He emphasized the importance of addressing the significant challenges ahead and indicated that the decisions made today are just the first necessary steps, suggesting that this could be the beginning of a "long journey."

Goddamn f***ing ironic that the "grand" coalition basically starts with passing a package that more or less includes what the traffic light broke up about in November due to oppsition of the FDP.

[President Johnson]

Exploration talks between Union and SPD go smooth so far. No leaks, participants describe the atmosphere contructive and serious.

Today, there was a major announcement: Union and SPD announced initial agreements on a multi-billion-euro funding package for defense and infrastructure. According to Friedrich Merz, all defense spending exceeding one percent of GDP will be exempt from debt brake restrictions. Additionally, a new special fund of 500 billion euros for infrastructure spending over ten years will be created, with SPD Secretary General Lars Klingbeil specifying that 100 billion euros will be allocated to the states.

The Union and SPD factions plan to submit proposals for amendments to the Basic Law in the old Bundestag next week. Klingbeil also mentioned that both parties aim to advance a reform of the debt brake in the newly elected Bundestag by the end of the year.

Merz stated that discussions between the parties will continue on Thursday and Friday, with the goal of concluding the talks "promptly." He emphasized the importance of addressing the significant challenges ahead and indicated that the decisions made today are just the first necessary steps, suggesting that this could be the beginning of a "long journey."

Goddamn f***ing ironic that the "grand" coalition basically starts with passing a package that more or less includes what the traffic light broke up about in November due to oppsition of the FDP.

Indeed, and Merz doing the opposite of what he promised (even though he occassionally left the door open for a modification of the debt brake). However, it's good that Union is ready to adjust their course, especially after recent developments.

I wonder what FDP will do in the old Bundestag when the vote comes up. I've just heard about talks with the Greens are planned soon. Technically, FDP isn't even needed. CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens have 521 of 736 seats in the old Bundestag. That's already 70.8%.

[You are responsible]

Yeah, Merz threw his campaign platform under the bus.

Because he's not running against Olaf Scholz and Robert Habeck anymore. He's running against Trump and Putin.

[You are responsible]

Suppose we have Donald Trump be "grateful" in a way, because he unintentionally managed to break the political gridlock in German politics, leading to a CDU-SPD coalition that is more ambitious than it usually would have been.

[minionofmidas]

Volt beat the FDP in the city election but their map is boring. The only place they polled over 5% is Hammerbrook.

Other points of interest wd be the Left declining more in outer areas (in keeping with having a different votership there) and a comparison of the three posh zones (around the Alster, on the bluff above the lower Elbe, and in the far northeast) which all have a somewhat different character.

[minionofmidas]