🇩🇪 German federal election, 23 February 2025

[Flyersfan232]

speaking of the FDP what happened now is it possible they are dead for good?

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

speaking of the FDP what happened now is it possible they are dead for good?

It's too early to proclaim the FDP dead.

[Flyersfan232]

speaking of the FDP what happened now is it possible they are dead for good?

It's too early to proclaim the FDP dead.

what do they have going for them?

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

speaking of the FDP what happened now is it possible they are dead for good?

It's too early to proclaim the FDP dead.

what do they have going for them?

FDP has bounced in and out of the Bundestag, so this situation isn't completely unprecedented. They have a core base of some mostly well-to-do types and then they need to add to it to ensure they get above 5%.

[adma]

speaking of the FDP what happened now is it possible they are dead for good?

It's too early to proclaim the FDP dead.

what do they have going for them?

FDP has bounced in and out of the Bundestag, so this situation isn't completely unprecedented. They have a core base of some mostly well-to-do types and then they need to add to it to ensure they get above 5%.

In a strange way, they're like Linke currently: all it takes is a magic "we're not like the other guys" message that suits the moment.  (Which is like what happened last time.  But not this time, because following their stint in government, they were insufficiently not-like-the-other-guys.)

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

speaking of the FDP what happened now is it possible they are dead for good?

It's too early to proclaim the FDP dead.

what do they have going for them?

FDP has bounced in and out of the Bundestag, so this situation isn't completely unprecedented. They have a core base of some mostly well-to-do types and then they need to add to it to ensure they get above 5%.

In a strange way, they're like Linke currently: all it takes is a magic "we're not like the other guys" message that suits the moment.  (Which is like what happened last time.  But not this time, because following their stint in government, they were insufficiently not-like-the-other-guys.)

And in all fairness to the FDP, they did not miss the threshold by much this time, despite everything going wrong for them. All they needed was three-quarters of a percentage point more...
So it's not too difficult to imagine them returning.

[Yeahsayyeah]

It's much more likely the BSW isn't a factor to reckon with in four years than the FDP, but last time they found a new political talent in Christian Lindner and this time it seems like super-hawkish Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann and old right-wing loudmouth and perennial goofball Wolfgang Kubicki are their main options as younger and more social-liberal people don't seem to be in consideration. This really does not look like a fresh start at the moment.

[You get arrested just for saying you're Polish these days]

It's much more likely the BSW isn't a factor to reckon with in four years than the FDP, but last time they found a new political talent in Christian Lindner and this time it seems like super-hawkish Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann and old right-wing loudmouth and perennial goofball Wolfgang Kubicki are their main options as younger and more social-liberal people don't seem to be in consideration. This really does not look like a fresh start at the moment.

I don't know if the FDP needs to be social-liberal. There are already other parties in that space.

My read on the FDP is that a party for yuppies who find the Union uncool and liberal policy wonks should probably be able to chug along at 5-7%, but they're not satisfied with that and so try to push past their natural niche with flashy nonsense and promises they don't intend to keep, which inevitably means a painful comedown and another round of envious glances at the FPÖ.

[Flyersfan232]

speaking of the FDP what happened now is it possible they are dead for good?

It's too early to proclaim the FDP dead.

what do they have going for them?

FDP has bounced in and out of the Bundestag, so this situation isn't completely unprecedented. They have a core base of some mostly well-to-do types and then they need to add to it to ensure they get above 5%.

In a strange way, they're like Linke currently: all it takes is a magic "we're not like the other guys" message that suits the moment.  (Which is like what happened last time.  But not this time, because following their stint in government, they were insufficiently not-like-the-other-guys.)

And in all fairness to the FDP, they did not miss the threshold by much this time, despite everything going wrong for them. All they needed was three-quarters of a percentage point more...
So it's not too difficult to imagine them returning.

they missed by more then 2013

[minionofmidas]

[minionofmidas]

It's much more likely the BSW isn't a factor to reckon with in four years than the FDP, but last time they found a new political talent in Christian Lindner and this time it seems like super-hawkish Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann and old right-wing loudmouth and perennial goofball Wolfgang Kubicki are their main options as younger and more social-liberal people don't seem to be in consideration. This really does not look like a fresh start at the moment.

I don't know if the FDP needs to be social-liberal. There are already other parties in that space.

My read on the FDP is that a party for yuppies who find the Union uncool and liberal policy wonks should probably be able to chug along at 5-7%, but they're not satisfied with that and so try to push past their natural niche with flashy nonsense and promises they don't intend to keep, which inevitably means a painful comedown and another round of envious glances at the FPÖ.

Nah,  that core vote (which IS socially liberal, but not in a campaigning sense) gets you to 4% at best.
Which is however a good springboard to solicit for more votes in a 5% threshold world as long as you remain more popular than rabies.

[minionofmidas]

It's much more likely the BSW isn't a factor to reckon with in four years than the FDP, but last time they found a new political talent in Christian Lindner and this time it seems like super-hawkish Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann and old right-wing loudmouth and perennial goofball Wolfgang Kubicki are their main options as younger and more social-liberal people don't seem to be in consideration. This really does not look like a fresh start at the moment.

I don't know if the FDP needs to be social-liberal. There are already other parties in that space.

My read on the FDP is that a party for yuppies who find the Union uncool and liberal policy wonks should probably be able to chug along at 5-7%, but they're not satisfied with that and so try to push past their natural niche with flashy nonsense and promises they don't intend to keep, which inevitably means a painful comedown and another round of envious glances at the FPÖ.

Nah,  that core vote (which IS socially liberal, but not in a campaigning sense) gets you to 4% at best.
Which is however a good springboard to solicit for more votes in a 5% threshold world as long as you remain more popular than rabies.

There are young guys - Vogel, Kuhle - interested in taking over the FDP, but they lack the boyish good looks and excellent Springer links Lindner had in 2013, and it's also too early for them. Better to taje over once someone older has failed (preferrably before the next GE)

[DL]

speaking of the FDP what happened now is it possible they are dead for good?

It's too early to proclaim the FDP dead.

what do they have going for them?

FDP has bounced in and out of the Bundestag, so this situation isn't completely unprecedented. They have a core base of some mostly well-to-do types and then they need to add to it to ensure they get above 5%.

The FDP's nickname in Germany was always "the party of doctors and dentists" - not sure if that is still the case

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Whenever they've done well in the past it's by hooking in a lot of people who see themselves as Not Political but think voting is a civic duty (which does have SES and regional correlations, of course). What they struggle to learn is that committing Antics in government tends to really piss this crowd off.

[woke nixon]

Whenever they've done well in the past it's by hooking in a lot of people who see themselves as Not Political but think voting is a civic duty (which does have SES and regional correlations, of course). What they struggle to learn is that committing Antics in government tends to really piss this crowd off.

In this respect, targeting this type of voter, the FDP do sort of overlap with the Lib Dems, no?

[seeking mystical annihilation]

Whenever they've done well in the past it's by hooking in a lot of people who see themselves as Not Political but think voting is a civic duty (which does have SES and regional correlations, of course). What they struggle to learn is that committing Antics in government tends to really piss this crowd off.

In this respect, targeting this type of voter, the FDP do sort of overlap with the Lib Dems, no?

But with a proud legacy of opposing denazification instead of social reformism or regional and religious alienation

[#UnbanTender]

Also worth remembering that Union and Merz actively discouraged  tactical voting for FDP. In past elections there have always been a small but significant number of Union voters who lent FDP votes on their second vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But with a proud legacy of opposing denazification instead of social reformism or regional and religious alienation

Well, on the one hand the actual Allied-mandated Denazification programme was an utter shitshow that managed to miss many of the people it should have caught while causing problems for others who really hadn't done anything wrong, as such. On the other... uh... that's not why they opposed it...

[seeking mystical annihilation]

But with a proud legacy of opposing denazification instead of social reformism or regional and religious alienation

Well, on the one hand the actual Allied-mandated Denazification programme was an utter shitshow that managed to miss many of the people it should have caught while causing problems for others who really hadn't done anything wrong, as such. On the other... uh... that's not why they opposed it...

Meanwhile on the other side of the Iron Curtain...uh...well look at this thread

[Vosem]

speaking of the FDP what happened now is it possible they are dead for good?

It's too early to proclaim the FDP dead.

what do they have going for them?

FDP has bounced in and out of the Bundestag, so this situation isn't completely unprecedented. They have a core base of some mostly well-to-do types and then they need to add to it to ensure they get above 5%.

In a strange way, they're like Linke currently: all it takes is a magic "we're not like the other guys" message that suits the moment.  (Which is like what happened last time.  But not this time, because following their stint in government, they were insufficiently not-like-the-other-guys.)

And in all fairness to the FDP, they did not miss the threshold by much this time, despite everything going wrong for them. All they needed was three-quarters of a percentage point more...
So it's not too difficult to imagine them returning.

they missed by more then 2013

I think they're somewhat stronger today in state legislatures and such, and they have historically always gained when a Grosskoalition is in power -- like the one which is about to be.

None of this is to say that they couldn't wither away if they make bad choices. Lindner as leader will be a hard act to follow. (Although a decade ago they were looking for someone who could replace Westerwelle! They've actually been reliant on 'a charismatic leader' for a long time.) FW -- a party competing for much the same space -- is substantially stronger today than it was a decade ago. They did just fail to get into the Bundestag. But right now it doesn't necessarily feel like the party is existentially threatened, which it definitely was after 2013.

[President Johnson]

Lars Klingbeil has been elected as the caucus leader of the SPD, receiving 86% of the vote of the new faction. Friedrich Merz has also been reelected to this position, but obviously not for long.

I have mixed feelings about Klingbeil's election, as he shares some responsibility for the party's disastrous performance. On the other hand, at 47, he represents a relatively young and articulate voice within the party. Also, the guy won his district in Lower Saxony with 42% of the vote, despite the SPD only securing 24% of the overall party vote there. Ideally, I would prefer to eliminate the ridiculous "Doppelspitze" arrangement and appoint him as the sole party leader. Meanwhile, Boris Pistorius should be the SPD's top representative in the cabinet either at Defense or Interior. Reports suggest that he and Merz have a good personal rapport and share similar views on foreign and defense policy, particularly with a strong anti-Kremlin stance. Some political observers are already referring to Friedrich Merz, Lars Klingbeil, Boris Pistorius and Thorsten Frei (the CDU parliamentary whip, who is likely to become Merz's chief of staff) as the newly designated "quartet of power."

Merz is already getting to work on foreign policy, which is an encouraging sign. He met with Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristerson behind closed doors in Berlin today and went on a plane to Paris tonight (Macron just retured home from Trump). I think he will be foreign policy oriented chancellor with a strong pro-European stance. I would actually be fine with the CDU getting the Foreign Ministry, unlike under Merkel's grand coalitions. Someone like Norbert Röttgen would make a good foreign minister. As long as Pistorius remains at Defense, I'll be satisfied.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Meanwhile on the other side of the Iron Curtain...uh...well look at this thread

It is just about possible that there are some wry jokes that could be made about the Anti-Fascist Protection Rampart...

[Yeahsayyeah]

speaking of the FDP what happened now is it possible they are dead for good?

It's too early to proclaim the FDP dead.

what do they have going for them?

FDP has bounced in and out of the Bundestag, so this situation isn't completely unprecedented. They have a core base of some mostly well-to-do types and then they need to add to it to ensure they get above 5%.

In a strange way, they're like Linke currently: all it takes is a magic "we're not like the other guys" message that suits the moment.  (Which is like what happened last time.  But not this time, because following their stint in government, they were insufficiently not-like-the-other-guys.)

And in all fairness to the FDP, they did not miss the threshold by much this time, despite everything going wrong for them. All they needed was three-quarters of a percentage point more...
So it's not too difficult to imagine them returning.

they missed by more then 2013

I think they're somewhat stronger today in state legislatures and such,

They were in nine state parliaments and in one state government in 2013. They are in nine state parliaments and two governments now. And the representation in the Hamburg state parliament is one seat because of personal votes and the quirks of their complicated electoral system. It's not that unlikely to end. So they are basically at the same level.

In early 2026 three of their remaining state parliament representations will be at stake: Baden-Württemberg, Rheinland-Pfalz, both historically important states for them - and Sachsen-Anhalt with its wild and sometimes barely predictable swings. Autum 2026 will see the Berlin (were the fell out in the repetition election in 2023) and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (where they are still in). So basically they have to defend home turf first and then go to structurally not so friendly territory to somehow survive.

I would say they are at the same existential thread, but 2013 felt worse as this never happened before and today they know they already came back once.

[Yeahsayyeah]

In other news, CDU and CSU are totally getting their priorities straight and are totally not divisive

*declaring another electoral law reform one of the most pressing issue, as they feel disadvantaged by full proportional representation.

* fielding a "brief inquiry" (an instrument of parliament controlling the government in German parliamentary by-laws, basically a set of questions that must be answered truthfully by the government") of 551 questions concerning the financing of NGOs they claim were part of the demonstrations against them voting with the AfD.

* Markus Söder (CSU) telling everyone, weither they want to hear it or not, that the "Merkel policies" are finally over.

They really get high on their 28.5 %

[Yeahsayyeah]

But with a proud legacy of opposing denazification instead of social reformism or regional and religious alienation

Well, on the one hand the actual Allied-mandated Denazification programme was an utter shitshow that managed to miss many of the people it should have caught while causing problems for others who really hadn't done anything wrong, as such. On the other... uh... that's not why they opposed it...

Meanwhile on the other side of the Iron Curtain...uh...well look at this thread

Well, they were more strict in denazification. But their own propaganda basically externalized the Nazi problem ("We were liberated by the Red Army from the Nazis. Now the Nazis are in Bonn") so that a real  reappraisal (I'm looking for a word for "Aufarbeitung") that happened in the West since the late sixties, at least, never happened, and the official antifascism seemed a hollow compulsory exercise.

So we see the difference between reappraisal driven by civic society and the lack of civic society that comes with dictatorship and a in many regards botched transition.