🇩🇪 German federal election, 23 February 2025

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I have previously tended to use a sort of purplish blue for the AfD, but for the purposes of clarity I have elected to go with a different colour. I am in favour of traditions and so have opted for the one historically associated with their general political tendency in Germany.

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/binraccooon/status/1894166968824983866?t=LBD0yAqP1sMTZrjXjzI...

[seeking mystical annihilation]

https://twitter.com/binraccooon/status/1894166968824983866?t=LBD0yAqP1sMTZrjXjzI...

this meme was funnier and more accurate when it said "the two kinds of sinn féin voter"

[minionofmidas]

https://twitter.com/binraccooon/status/1894166968824983866?t=LBD0yAqP1sMTZrjXjzI...

this meme was funnier and more accurate when it said "the two kinds of sinn féin voter"

Yeah, for the Left it's a bit dated now.  Maybe use a Tirkish granddad.

[Flyersfan232]

When should talks be done

[Yeahsayyeah]

When should talks be done

Friedrich Merz wants the new government be formed "around Easter". The SPD is dragging its feet a little as they will have to work out some orgazational and policy guidelines after their desastrous defeat and want to avoid the impression to sell out to quickly. (Merz really has acted like a bull in a china shop several times during the campaign and this hasn't help to quell the reservations against this man left of the center).

The days of government formations of 30 days which was the norm before 2005 are probably over, but about two months seems realistic, unless CDU/CSU decide to go for maximalist demands.

[Sir Mohamed]

When should talks be done

Friedrich Merz wants the new government be formed "around Easter". The SPD is dragging its feet a little as they will have to work out some orgazational and policy guidelines after their desastrous defeat and want to avoid the impression to sell out to quickly. (Merz really has acted like a bull in a china shop several times during the campaign and this hasn't help to quell the reservations against this man left of the center).

The days of governmant formations of 30 days which was the norm before 2005 are probably over, but about two months seems realistic, unless CDU/CSU decide to go for maximalist demands.

Is there a chance Merz fails to be elected chancellor? Both Merkel and Scholz lost several votes of their ruling coalition at the time and Merz' margin of error is smaller. He needs 316 votes on the floor, Union+SPD have 328 MPs. I doubt he gets any votes from Grune.

[Cassius]

Anything of interest to note about the two constituencies in the West that the AfD won (Gelsenkirchen and Kaiserslautern)? Or just a case of the AfD coming out at the top of a pileup?

[Yeahsayyeah]

A chancellor not being elected at the first round of voting hasnever happened. It sometimes Happens in the states, especially in the first round as a warning shot. It ist more likely that the negotiations fail then that they succeed and Merz gets heckled Afterwards.

A chancellor can be elected on a plurality in the end, but I won't lay out the process in detail, every day, unless we get to a scenario where this gets more likely.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anything of interest to note about the two constituencies in the West that the AfD won (Gelsenkirchen and Kaiserslautern)? Or just a case of the AfD coming out at the top of a pileup?

They didn't win any constituencies in the West. Both of those seats were held by the SPD. They topped the poll on the list vote in both, but that's always essentially a point of trivia and especially so when there's no sense of a 'contest' for Chancellor (i.e. this election) so no tactical squeeze on the list vote. There were quite a lot of constituencies in the West with higher AfD list votes than Gelsenkirchen, and a few higher than Kaiserslautern, but they all had high CDU or CSU votes.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Anything of interest to note about the two constituencies in the West that the AfD won (Gelsenkirchen and Kaiserslautern)? Or just a case of the AfD coming out at the top of a pileup?

A bit of both. Downtrodden old Industrial areas with many problems where one would expect them to do well, especially If the SPD declines. In a seven Party system, low twenties can be enough to "win", then.

[Oryxslayer]

Anything of interest to note about the two constituencies in the West that the AfD won (Gelsenkirchen and Kaiserslautern)? Or just a case of the AfD coming out at the top of a pileup?

The two they came on top in the Second vote PR  slate - not the direct vote - both have an air of pileup splits. The PR vote after all is, by design, more fragmented.

Gelsenkirchen is much more in that column. So far a always-SPD seat in the direct seat, but both the Union and Linke made inroads into different types of Rhur voters this time. So 3 parties with 20x percent and AfD barely on top.

Kaiserslautern is another, rather noticeably, always-SPD seat. But here the ground has been shifting, along with the rest of the SW corner around and in Saar. The AfD does have a presence here even before last weekend, and obviously the Union was on top. Here there very much is an air of least-worst tactical voting, but perhaps intended against the Union. Either way, because the SPD had a bigger base then the rest of SW R-P, the vote was sufficiently divided.

There are better western seats for the AfD by results, the others just were lower for different reasons here. And obviously all are worse then the East where we saw high-30s and 40s.

[minionofmidas]

The major (5+ precinct wins) parties, doing AfD, FDP, BSW, turnout next, then Hesse state, then probably neighborhoods for other Hessian cities

There's three errors I've spotted in the official preliminary results, they're corrected in the precinct maps but not the neighborhood map

[Ethelberth]

Has somebody calculated results using old system?

[minionofmidas]

Has somebody calculated results using old system?

Yes. If by old system you mean last election's, by random chamce literally nothing changes except the CSU gets to keep its three overhang seats. (Obviously, instead of the unpucky polltoppers some other guy from a different state but the same party loses out.)

[Yeahsayyeah]

Has somebody calculated results using old system?

Nobody wants to do the several step iterative mess that was the system used in 2021. But it's easy to say, what the overhang seats would be in the system used until 2009 with 630 as the base number of seats, as those are the so called "orphaned districts"

CDU: 15
Schleswig-Holstein: 1
Hessen: 5
Rheinland-Pfalz: 3
Baden-Württemberg: 6

CSU/Bavaria: 3

AfD: 4

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: 1
Brandenburg: 1
Sachsen-Anhalt: 1
Sachsen: 1

SPD: 1

Bremen: 1

So, we are basically talking about 18 additional seats for the Union parties, or a net gain of 13 over all others. Of course they claim, the new electoral system was "unfair" to them. BTW, the increase of the Bundestag without increasing the number of districts and 13.7% of the votes not represented because of the five percent threshold (more seats for the others) probably do a very heavy lifting here.

[Oryxslayer]

Has somebody calculated results using old system?

Yes. If by old system you mean last election's, by random chamce literally nothing changes except the CSU gets to keep its three overhang seats. (Obviously, instead of the unpucky polltoppers some other guy from a different state but the same party loses out.)

An interesting set of circumstances.

Though there are reasons for this. The first is that there are only 5 large parties represented in the Bundestag, rather than the six that were normalized last decade. So less demand for PR seats, less relative overrepresentation in the direct seats, less mathematical need to add more and more.

The second reason is scale of victory. The union only won 190/299 direct seats on their plurality, approximately 63.5% of districts. Which seems like a lot, but it is rather small in context. 73% for the Union in 2009, 79% in 2013, and 77% in 2017 for comparison.

[minionofmidas]

Has somebody calculated results using old system?

Yes. If by old system you mean last election's, by random chamce literally nothing changes except the CSU gets to keep its three overhang seats. (Obviously, instead of the unpucky polltoppers some other guy from a different state but the same party loses out.)

An interesting set of circumstances.

Though there are reasons for this. The first is that there are only 5 large parties represented in the Bundestag, rather than the six that were normalized last decade. So less demand for PR seats, less relative overrepresentation in the direct seats, less mathematical need to add more and more.

Yes. eg if BSW were at 5.003 rather than 4.997, under the 2021 law the Bundestag would be larger by their 36 seats.

[President Johnson]

More developments regarding the debt brake and need for an increased defense budget: Friedrich Merz is now open to discussions, particularly regarding defense funding, acknowledging that the Bundeswehr will require significantly more funding in the coming years. However, he does not support an immediate reform of the debt brake, suggesting instead a new, credit-financed special fund similar to the 100 billion euro fund established for the Bundeswehr in 2022. I've read about a potential second special fund worth 200 billion Euros.

A potential obstacle to these reforms is the "veto minority"" ("Sperrminorität") formed by the AfD and Die Linke, who could block any proposals if they vote together. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel has already stated her opposition to additional debt, while Die Linke, which would prefer to abolish the debt brake, strongly opposes increased military spending.

This situation poses a dilemma for Union, SPD and Greens: should they wait and risk relying on AfD or Left support, or act swiftly despite the new Bundestag having been elected? Some members of the Union parties support Habeck's proposal for a one-time special fund but not for a permanent reform of the debt brake, citing the need for increased defense spending due to changing security conditions.

Union budget politicians are cautious, insisting that a financial assessment must come first before discussing new debt. The mere thought of the current Bundestag expanding debt has enraged both the AfD and the Left, with AfD representatives labeling it a "cold coup against our tax and state assets," while the Left deems the idea of increasing military spending with the current assembly a scandal.

As discussions about a potential special fund continue until the new Bundestag is constituted, leading SPD politicians are pushing for a reform of the debt brake afterward. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius believes that an exception to the debt brake is essential for adequately equipping the Bundeswehr, which will need its budget to double to over 100 billion euros in the coming years. However, it remains uncertain whether there will be a sufficient majority for such a reform in the new Bundestag.

Söder also has voiced an openess for discussions on the matter now. However, they need to come to term within a short period of time. The new Bundestag will convene on March 25.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Of course, they could have done something on that front for several months then trying to force it through the outgoing parliament...it's not that this election result comes out of nowhere and is a total surprise...staatspolitische Verantwortung my ass...

It would be legal, but there is clearly a legitimacy issue with such a move. The only time I can remember the lame duck Bundestag even was in session was in 1998 and that was with the rapidly emerging situation in Kosovo.

And I'm totally for abolishing the "debt brake" outright as it is a hindrance on necessary investments into...well...everything...and everybody who warned about this in 2009 can feel vindicated by the last years. Economics with the thinking horizon of a Swabian housewife just don't work.

[President Johnson]

Another headline from today: AfD faction has formally admitted the new far-right MPs Maximilian Krah and Matthias Helferich to their ranks. Krah was the AfD's leading candidate for the EU parliament election in 2024 and caused a rift between his party and Marine Le Pen's RN when he downplayed the role of the SS. Krah is also extremely active on TikTok and makes outlandish statements such as "real men are right-wing". He also claimed some young men struggle with dating because they aren't far-right lunatics. Krah's office in the EU parliament was also infiltrated by foreign agents. His chief of staff was a Chinese asset who was later arrested by police. Helferich is another Nazi. He once called himself "the friendly face of nazism". Speaks volumes how insane this parliamentary group is going to be.

I hope the effort to ban AfD continues and heads to the Constitutional Court at some point. There are dozens of scholars arguing that a ban is justified under the Basic Law.

[Flyersfan232]

Another headline from today: AfD faction has formally admitted the new far-right MPs Maximilian Krah and Matthias Helferich to their ranks. Krah was the AfD's leading candidate for the EU parliament election in 2024 and caused a rift between his party and Marine Le Pen's RN when he downplayed the role of the SS. Krah is also extremely active on TikTok and makes outlandish statements such as "real men are right-wing". He also claimed some young men struggle with dating because they aren't far-right lunatics. Krah's office in the EU parliament was also infiltrated by foreign agents. His chief of staff was a Chinese asset who was later arrested by police. Helferich is another Nazi. He once called himself "the friendly face of nazism". Speaks volumes how insane this parliamentary group is going to be.

I hope the effort to ban AfD continues and heads to the Constitutional Court at some point. There are dozens of scholars arguing that a ban is justified under the Basic Law.

banning the afd wont end this

[Oryxslayer]

Another headline from today: AfD faction has formally admitted the new far-right MPs Maximilian Krah and Matthias Helferich to their ranks. Krah was the AfD's leading candidate for the EU parliament election in 2024 and caused a rift between his party and Marine Le Pen's RN when he downplayed the role of the SS. Krah is also extremely active on TikTok and makes outlandish statements such as "real men are right-wing". He also claimed some young men struggle with dating because they aren't far-right lunatics. Krah's office in the EU parliament was also infiltrated by foreign agents. His chief of staff was a Chinese asset who was later arrested by police. Helferich is another Nazi. He once called himself "the friendly face of nazism". Speaks volumes how insane this parliamentary group is going to be.

I hope the effort to ban AfD continues and heads to the Constitutional Court at some point. There are dozens of scholars arguing that a ban is justified under the Basic Law.

banning the afd wont end this

I would think far right supporters should want to see the AfD banned if they actually want policies implemented. Burn it down and build from the ashes using a party with the knowledge and resources to not get itself tangled up with neo-nazis and open assets - adopting issues while marketing a image not hated by 75% of voters. Heck, there's the potential it actually happens if the FDP's soul searching leads to a pivot rightwards, and then the AfD gets banned.

[Come the avarice]

His chief of staff was a Chinese asset who was later arrested by police. Helferich is another Nazi.

It's not a surprise that far-right politicians are often a target of espionage, typically being the dumbest and most credulous cohort of elected officials.

Look at Tulsi Gabbard, she managed to worm her way into the lives of multiple MAGA politicians and figures like John McCain's embarrassing daughter.

[Flyersfan232]

Another headline from today: AfD faction has formally admitted the new far-right MPs Maximilian Krah and Matthias Helferich to their ranks. Krah was the AfD's leading candidate for the EU parliament election in 2024 and caused a rift between his party and Marine Le Pen's RN when he downplayed the role of the SS. Krah is also extremely active on TikTok and makes outlandish statements such as "real men are right-wing". He also claimed some young men struggle with dating because they aren't far-right lunatics. Krah's office in the EU parliament was also infiltrated by foreign agents. His chief of staff was a Chinese asset who was later arrested by police. Helferich is another Nazi. He once called himself "the friendly face of nazism". Speaks volumes how insane this parliamentary group is going to be.

I hope the effort to ban AfD continues and heads to the Constitutional Court at some point. There are dozens of scholars arguing that a ban is justified under the Basic Law.

banning the afd wont end this

I would think far right supporters should want to see the AfD banned if they actually want policies implemented. Burn it down and build from the ashes using a party with the knowledge and resources to not get itself tangled up with neo-nazis and open assets - adopting issues while marketing a image not hated by 75% of voters. Heck, there's the potential it actually happens if the FDP's soul searching leads to a pivot rightwards, and then the AfD gets banned.

i would love for alliance germany to become viable electorally