🇩🇪 German federal election, 23 February 2025

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

A what?

NSDAP + KPD > 50%

Gotcha, thanks. Is this a common term or no?

Not sure, ‘negative majority’ is perhaps more common, and ‘Weimar coalition’ is ocassionally used for what we’d call Germany coalition today — SPD/Zentrum/DDP, that is SPD/CDU/FDP

I've only heard "negative majority". "Weimar coalition" is the parties that are the bulwark of the older party system (used in a historical context).

[KaiserDave]

Equivocating Linke to AfD is basically AfD propaganda.

[Mike88]

Is there a website to follow the nationwide results as they are counted?

[buritobr]

ZDF by education level

Elementary
Union: 33
AfD: 27
SPD: 20
Grüne: 4
Linke: 5
FDP: 4
BSW: 4

High School
Union: 29
AfD: 28
SPD: 15
Grüne: 7
Linke: 7
FDP: 4
BSW: 6

College
Union: 27
AfD: 13
SPD: 16
Grüne: 20
Linke: 11
FDP: 6
BSW: 5

[#UnbanTender]

Is there a website to follow the nationwide results as they are counted?

https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2025/ergebnisse/bund-99.html
They will start reporting results in a hour or so when the first constituency is fully counted.

[Diouf]

SSW adding votes so far, so it should certainly be enough to keep their seat. But so far also doesn't look like they will get all that close to a second seat

[Crazy Steve]

ARD and ZDF predict insanely high turnouts of 83 and 84%, which would be a really good reflection of voters and what they wanted.

AfD at 20% (although rising slightly) was to be expected, but I thought it would be much more (23-25%), given the catastrophic performance of the Ampel government in recent years and the general depressive mood in the German economy. Looks like a good amount of protest voters went to the Linke and BSW, combining 14% (I had them at 11% combined).

Other parties performed as expected.

[President Johnson]

Söder talking nice of SPD, praising them for opposing the Nazi regime to the end.

[Crazy Steve]

Is there a website to follow the nationwide results as they are counted?

Go to the Bundeswahlleiterin website (incoming results/constituencies).

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Are there expected to be a lot of overhang seats? I know in NZ, three (out of a base of 120) is a lot, but Germany seems to have a lot more proportional to 630.

[Harlow]

Are there expected to be a lot of overhang seats? I know in NZ, three (out of a base of 120) is a lot, but Germany seems to have a lot more proportional to 630.

It's my understanding the new electoral system removes overhang seats.

[C r a b c a k e]

Has any poll showed voters with a migration background? I'm guessing they have moved massively towards die Linke with them being the most ardently against policies to deal with the migration and crime problems

BSW were polling quite high with them (pre linke surge) possibly because of palestine

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

"Friends, last autumn we took a huge political risk for our country"
Lindner

Lol

[Vosem]

Equivocating Linke to AfD is basically AfD propaganda.

The CDU website is crashing right now but I believe their equivalence remains the party's official position; the unacceptability of Linke and the AfD are laid out in the same party document, linked at that source (though it seems inaccessible right now).

Polls suggest that there exists a fair fraction of CDU supporters that don't really agree with this, although most do, but it's by no means a ridiculous or far-right position to say that Linke having unrepentant DDR apparatchiks, who have not embraced capitalism, in official positions is as bad as the ties senior AfD members have had with neo-Nazi groups.

[President Johnson]

ARD newest projection with little changes. AfD over 20% now, but FDP and BSW remain at 4.9% and 4.8%, respectively.

[YL]

FDP now at 4.9% on ZDF projection, BSW still 5.0%.

[Vosem]

And I'm not even as anti-DDR as all that -- I've defended the way that state was set up, and I think a lot of my own thinking owes a great deal to the ~~Eastern Bloc~~ -- but if you are serious about combating anti-democratic tendencies in German politics it bears noting that a substantial fraction of the country was actually ruled by a totalitarian regime until 1989 and there exists a major German political party founded on the principle of defending that regime and those that supported it.

[Vosem]

FDP now at 4.9% on ZDF projection, BSW still 5.0%.

Yuck 🤮

[Banana Republican]

ZDF hochrechnung update:

SPD 16.3
CDU 28.6
Greens 12.4
FDP 5.0
AFD 20.1
Linke 8.9
BSW 5.0

SPD 16.3
CDU 28.4 (-0.2)
Greens 12.4
FDP 5.0
AFD 20.1
Linke 8.8 (-0.1)
BSW 5.0
Others 4.0 (+0.3)

SPD 16.3
CDU 28.5 (+0.1)
Greens 12.4
FDP 4.9 (-0.1)
AFD 20.1
Linke 8.7 (-0.1)
BSW 5.0
Others 4.1 (+0.1)

Important shift here with FDP falling under 5. Hopefully it stays that way and BSW join them there.

Also a new ARD projection:

SPD 16.2
CDU 28.8
Greens 12.7
FDP 4.9
AFD 20.2
Linke 8.5
BSW 4.8
Others 3.9

[DL]

FDP now at 4.9% on ZDF projection, BSW still 5.0%.

Oh brother. If that happened I guess Kenya coalition would
Be the only possible government

[Crazy Steve]

28.5 Union + 20 AfD + 5 FDP = 53.5% for Rightwing parties.

4% are others, which leaves 42.5% for Leftist parties.

Union and FDP are not monolithically rightwing, it's probably 90% of their voters, which is 48%.

Leftist parties get 1.5% from other parties, maybe 2.5% for 45%.

So, there was a 48% Right, 45% Left split, with ca. 7% in the middle.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Question: after 2021 the seating in the Bundestag changed and FDP was placed in the center (taking Union's place). Could this be reverted?

[Flyersfan232]

FDP now at 4.9% on ZDF projection, BSW still 5.0%.

Oh brother. If that happened I guess Kenya coalition would
Be the only possible government

merz should burn the firewall down instead

[Vosem]

FDP now at 4.9% on ZDF projection, BSW still 5.0%.

Oh brother. If that happened I guess Kenya coalition would
Be the only possible government

merz should burn the firewall down instead

For better or worse, that is emphatically not what his voters want.

[MaxQue]

FDP now at 4.9% on ZDF projection, BSW still 5.0%.

Oh brother. If that happened I guess Kenya coalition would
Be the only possible government

merz should burn the firewall down instead

If he does that, he will only burn his own party down and lose the Chancellor vote anyways due to defections from his own party.