🇩🇪 German federal election, 23 February 2025

[President Johnson]

AfD back to 20.1% in the updated ZDF projection. Still at 19.7% in ARD's.

19.9% now. But FDP remains at 4.9%.

[Compuzled_One]

Kinda proves what i have been saying all campaign, the Union as the pillar of normalcy has less in common with the AfD than the FDP whose been following their electorate and pivoting right.

If BSW does get in, how that impact AfD, long-term, you think?

I'd assume it keeps peeling anti-incumbent and anti-establishment voters.

[#UnbanTender]

Weimar majority among the 18-24 year olds.

[Compuzled_One]

Weimar majority among the 18-24 year olds.

A what?

[President Johnson]

Does anyone think Scholz would take a position in a Merz cabinet or would that be seen as too humiliating?

I don't see it being likely, Schröder didn't do it after 2005 either and that defeat was much closer.

BSW went to 4.8% in ARD's latest projection.

If FDP and BSW would still get in, even Union and AfD would only be 316 seats.

Imagine if somehow FDP fails to get in but BSW does.

I don't hope so, but I would enjoy Söder twisting his tongue then. After he ruled out a coalition with the Greens at all costs. In such a scenario, Kenya coalition would remain the only viable option.

[Oryxslayer]

Weimar majority among the 18-24 year olds.

Nothing new - well the chosen parties are new. But in the modern era the Union and SPD always get near nil among the youth, and both the left and the right of the demo pick alterative or anti-establishment parties.



Also, ARD update keeps both FDP and BSW sub 5%.

[Estrella]

A what?

NSDAP + KPD > 50%

[Compuzled_One]

A what?

NSDAP + KPD > 50%

Gotcha, thanks. Is this a common term or no?

[Yeahsayyeah]

Habeck implicitly ruled out a Jamaica coalition in the ARD ;-)

"If there is the necessity of a Kenya coalition we will talk"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Elections are choices not censuses and people cast the votes they do for reasons that seem rational to them. Projecting forwards from how this or that cohort is estimated to have voted in this or that year is rarely a terribly sensible idea.

[President Johnson]

Weimar majority among the 18-24 year olds.

We need better history lessons. Especially for the 1933-45 period.

[Compuzled_One]

Is a Germany coalition on the table?

[Banana Republican]

ZDF hochrechnung update:

SPD 16.3
CDU 28.6
Greens 12.4
FDP 5.0
AFD 20.1
Linke 8.9
BSW 5.0

SPD 16.3
CDU 28.4 (-0.2)
Greens 12.4
FDP 5.0
AFD 20.1
Linke 8.8 (-0.1)
BSW 5.0
Others 4.0 (+0.3)

[The Good Life]

Kinda proves what i have been saying all campaign, the Union as the pillar of normalcy has less in common with the AfD than the FDP whose been following their electorate and pivoting right.

If BSW does get in, how that impact AfD, long-term, you think?

In previous elections, the BSW took more voters from Die Linke and the SPD than it did from the AfD.

[Diouf]

Has any poll showed voters with a migration background? I'm guessing they have moved massively towards die Linke with them being the most ardently against policies to deal with the migration and crime problems

[President Johnson]

Is a Germany coalition on the table?

Yes. But even that would be a narrow majority if BSW also gets into the Bundestag. I still think Kenya is more likely, if Union and SPD don't reach the 316+ seats.

[First1There]

Somebody vandelized the German Election Wikipedia Page

[Compuzled_One]

Is a Germany coalition on the table?

Yes. But even that would be a narrow majority if BSW also gets into the Bundestag. I still think Kenya is more likely, if Union and SPD don't reach the 316+ seats.

Makes sense, thanks.

[You are responsible]

Has any poll showed voters with a migration background? I'm guessing they have moved massively towards die Linke with them being the most ardently against policies to deal with the migration and crime problems

It's racist of you to insinuate that migrants don't want "migrant and crime problems" to be solved.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Kinda proves what i have been saying all campaign, the Union as the pillar of normalcy has less in common with the AfD than the FDP whose been following their electorate and pivoting right.

If BSW does get in, how that impact AfD, long-term, you think?

In previous elections, the BSW took more voters from Die Linke and the SPD than it did from the AfD.

True, I do wonder how the relevance or lack thereof of BSW would have on AfD's efforts to win over "unhappies" (for lack of a better word).

[President Johnson]

ARD: 26% say that Scholz is a good chancellor, Pistorius gets 47% in that exit poll.

[Estrella]

A what?

NSDAP + KPD > 50%

Gotcha, thanks. Is this a common term or no?

Not sure, ‘negative majority’ is perhaps more common, and ‘Weimar coalition’ is ocassionally used for what we’d call Germany coalition today — SPD/Zentrum/DDP, that is SPD/CDU/FDP

[MaynardFriedman]

I think you have to be pretty deranged to liken Die Linke to the KPD. By all accounts, the party is quite similar to peer parties in Sweden or Finland or Denmark. The only distinction is that some elderly apparatchiks were once petty bureaucrats in the DDR but they will all be dead soon. The spirit of the party these days has very little to do with the memory of the DDR, as it might have even a decade ago.

[#UnbanTender]

With roughly ~20% counted it looks like Habeck will not be winning a direct mandate.
https://www.wahlen-sh.de/btw25/ergebnisse_wahlkreis_1.html

[Eidolon]

Has any poll showed voters with a migration background? I'm guessing they have moved massively towards die Linke with them being the most ardently against policies to deal with the migration and crime problems

Migrants aren't a monolith. Even youth of migrant background are swinging to the right.