🇩🇪 German federal election, 23 February 2025

[Oryxslayer]

Kinda proves what i have been saying all campaign, the Union as the pillar of normalcy has less in common with the AfD than the FDP whose been following their electorate and pivoting right.

[Vosem]

I assume not getting any seats is likely gonna kill the BSW?

It's interesting, because they're part of the state governments in Brandenburg and Thuringia. They could still have a foothold in the East because of this, or at the very least limp along.

Did the Pirates ever make it into any state governments? They had a brief surge in 2010-2012, but it basically fell apart by the 2013 Bundestag election and they ended up getting swept out everywhere. I'm not sure they ever made it into power anywhere, though -- maybe that would've given them staying power, but maybe not.

[Mike88]

Merz says he wants to form a coalition quickly.

[President Johnson]

Merz speaking now. Sounds gracious.

He wants to form a new government relatively quickly now. However, I think the Union is a little disappointed not to have reached 30%.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Kinda proves what i have been saying all campaign, the Union as the pillar of normalcy has less in common with the AfD than the FDP whose been following their electorate and pivoting right.

If BSW does get in, how that impact AfD, long-term, you think?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Merz speaking now. Sounds gracious.

He wants to form a new government relatively quickly now. However, I think the Union is a little disappointed not to have reached 30%.

Victorious but chastened Merz is probably the easiest version to work with. Triumphant Merz would have been an absolutely bloody nightmare.

[Oryxslayer]

I assume not getting any seats is likely gonna kill the BSW?

It's interesting, because they're part of the state governments in Brandenburg and Thuringia. They could still have a foothold in the East because of this, or at the very least limp along.

Did the Pirates ever make it into any state governments? They had a brief surge in 2010-2012, but it basically fell apart by the 2013 Bundestag election and they ended up getting swept out everywhere. I'm not sure they ever made it into power anywhere, though -- maybe that would've given them staying power, but maybe not.

2011 Berlin, 2012 Saarland, S-H, and NRW. There they won seats, but did not enter any coalition.

The issue with the BSW is it's just Wagenknecht's vehicle. With her out of a job, there not much to fall back on. With Linke back it's very well possible the three state parties just close up shop and most rejoin.

[Yeahsayyeah]

I assume not getting any seats is likely gonna kill the BSW?

It's interesting, because they're part of the state governments in Brandenburg and Thuringia. They could still have a foothold in the East because of this, or at the very least limp along.

Did the Pirates ever make it into any state governments? They had a brief surge in 2010-2012, but it basically fell apart by the 2013 Bundestag election and they ended up getting swept out everywhere. I'm not sure they ever made it into power anywhere, though -- maybe that would've given them staying power, but maybe not.

The pirates entered four state parliaments and the European parliament but no government.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Scholz calls the election a "bitter election result", unhesitatingly uses the word "defeat".

[President Johnson]

Scholz concedes. He congratulated the Union and Merz.

[Compuzled_One]

Since it seems the Union-SPD might be on the knife's edge majority wise, might that one SSW guy be brought in, since he has a non-negligible chance to be the deciding vote and Merz likely doesn't want a majority left coalition?

[Oryxslayer]

With prelim votes it seems SSW now expected to return.

Since it seems the Union-SPD might be on the knife's edge majority wise, might that one SSW guy be brought in, since he has a non-negligible chance to be the deciding vote and Merz likely doesn't want a majority left coalition?

316 is 50+1, not 326. But he might be given some pork.

[President Johnson]

BSW went to 4.8% in ARD's latest projection.

If FDP and BSW would still get in, even Union and AfD would only be 316 seats.

[CheapDollarEra?]

Metz PM, CDU-SPD coalition seems likely.

Is there any practical sense behing voting for AfD? It seems that t will never be part of any goverment coalition.

[Compuzled_One]

With prelim votes it seems SSW now expected to return.

Since it seems the Union-SPD might be on the knife's edge majority wise, might that one SSW guy be brought in, since he has a non-negligible chance to be the deciding vote and Merz likely doesn't want a majority left coalition?

316 is 50+1, not 326. But he might be given some pork.

I mean, still, it's not impossible the exit polls got it wrong by a dozen or so.

[DL]

Does anyone think Scholz would take a position in a Merz cabinet or would that be seen as too humiliating?

[Storr]

ARD expects Union+ SPD to have a majority, Union + Greens in initial estimation to be barely short. With FDP in, both three party options work.

Turnout estimated 84%!

That means 2025 will have the highest turnout since 1987!

[Compuzled_One]

Metz PM, CDU-SPD coalition seems likely.

Is there any practical sense behing voting for AfD? It seems that t will never be part of any goverment coalition.

Hoping they get a majority I guess-which likely won't happen unless they monopolize the anti-party vote and the economy completely implodes.

[The Good Life]

Does anyone think Scholz would take a position in a Merz cabinet or would that be seen as too humiliating?

No, Scholz said he won't take a position in a Merz cabinet.

[President Johnson]

Does anyone think Scholz would take a position in a Merz cabinet or would that be seen as too humiliating?

No, he already ruled that out. However, he will remain a member of the Bundestag like previous former chancellors.

[Compuzled_One]

ARD expects Union+ SPD to have a majority, Union + Greens in initial estimation to be barely short. With FDP in, both three party options work.

Turnout estimated 84%!

That means 2025 will have the highest turnout since 1987!

It's possible estimates also got it wrong slightly, and it could be the highest since 1983.

[Banana Republican]

ZDF hochrechnung update:

SPD 16.3
CDU 28.6
Greens 12.4
FDP 5.0
AFD 20.1
Linke 8.9
BSW 5.0

[Mike88]

AfD back to 20.1% in the updated ZDF projection. Still at 19.7% in ARD's.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Does anyone think Scholz would take a position in a Merz cabinet or would that be seen as too humiliating?

I don't see it being likely, Schröder didn't do it after 2005 either and that defeat was much closer.

BSW went to 4.8% in ARD's latest projection.

If FDP and BSW would still get in, even Union and AfD would only be 316 seats.

Imagine if somehow FDP fails to get in but BSW does.

[Banana Republican]

Does anyone think Scholz would take a position in a Merz cabinet or would that be seen as too humiliating?

I don't see it being likely, Schröder didn't do it after 2005 either and that defeat was much closer.

BSW went to 4.8% in ARD's latest projection.

If FDP and BSW would still get in, even Union and AfD would only be 316 seats.

Imagine if somehow FDP fails to get in but BSW does.

That would basically be worst case scenario.