🇩🇪 German federal election, 23 February 2025

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hopefully FDP gets over 5%

That would again lead to an instable government. If FDP gets in, Merz needs two coalition partners, which makes things much more complicated.

Well , it would mean coalition partners who would help him govern more from the right .

[Oryxslayer]

Some time until it becomes clear whether FDP and/or BSW have passed the threshold then, I suppose.

Yeah, it will be just like 2013, when FDP and AfD were hovering around 5% all night long.

Also if Union + Greens have a majority. That potential obviously depends upon the above staying below 5%, and then if one or both parties slightly outperform the exists.


Additional question that I want answered, but won't see for a while, is how much direct mandate tactical voting in the direct seats: SPD + Greens + Left if there is a clear favorite vs the Union, all in the center versus the AfD in the east when there was a clear candidate to rally around.

[DL]

Hopefully FDP gets over 5%

That would again lead to an instable government. If FDP gets in, Merz needs two coalition partners, which makes things much more complicated.

Well , it would mean coalition partners who would help him govern more from the right .

Be careful what you wish for. It could also mean a CDU-SPD-Green coalition since no one wants to work with the FDP

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, worst SPD result in history. I hope no other party clears 5%, since a coalition with 3 parties would be difficult.

That said, could Merz fail to be elected chancellor? Union+SPD most likely just have a bare majority. I looked up the results for Merkel, and she always got several votes less than her coalition. Merz is arguably more controversial, so has little room for error.

[Banana Republican]

Looks like my prediction was close to the truth:

Not to flood/derail the megathread, you can post your final predictions for the German election in this thread. There's also a seat calculator for the new election law: https://www.mandatsrechner.de/

My final prediction is this:

Union: 28.9% - 212 seats
AfD: 20.7% - 152 seats
SPD: 16.4% - 120 seats
Greens: 12.3% - 90 seats
The Left: 7.7% - 56 seats
---
FDP: 4.8%
BSW: 4.7%
Others: 5.0%


Government: CDU/CSU-SPD: 332/630 seats (52.7%)

I also predict the coalition agreement will be approved by 60-65% of SPD members. Merz will be elected chancellor with ~ 320 votes. Narrowly clearing the threshold of 316 seats necessary. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will retain his position and become vice chancellor.

As for SPD, co-leader Lars Klingbeil retains his job, but Saskia Esken will be out and replaced by Anke Rehlinger.

I really hope that it ends up as a 2 party CDU-SPD government like your prediction.

The benefit of that is it will be more stable than a 3 party government, and it is good for either one of the SPD or the Greens to not have to be in the government. Also, CDU-SPD would obviously be pro-Ukraine.

That way when time comes for the next election, there will be at least one of the two mainstream center-left parties (SPD or Green) which is NOT the incumbent, and therefore that means that in the next election there will be somewhere on the mainstream pro-Ukraine center-left for any anti-incumbent anti-governing-coalition voters to go.

The nightmare scenario would be that both SPD and Greens had to join the government, and then in the next election AFD benefited from being perceived as the opposition/"alternative." This is why it is particularly important for FDP and BSW to get slightly less than 5%.

[Compuzled_One]

Looks like my prediction was close to the truth:

Not to flood/derail the megathread, you can post your final predictions for the German election in this thread. There's also a seat calculator for the new election law: https://www.mandatsrechner.de/

My final prediction is this:

Union: 28.9% - 212 seats
AfD: 20.7% - 152 seats
SPD: 16.4% - 120 seats
Greens: 12.3% - 90 seats
The Left: 7.7% - 56 seats
---
FDP: 4.8%
BSW: 4.7%
Others: 5.0%


Government: CDU/CSU-SPD: 332/630 seats (52.7%)

I also predict the coalition agreement will be approved by 60-65% of SPD members. Merz will be elected chancellor with ~ 320 votes. Narrowly clearing the threshold of 316 seats necessary. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will retain his position and become vice chancellor.

As for SPD, co-leader Lars Klingbeil retains his job, but Saskia Esken will be out and replaced by Anke Rehlinger.

I really hope that it ends up as a 2 party CDU-SPD government like your prediction.

The benefit of that is it will be more stable than a 3 party government, and it is good for either one of the SPD or the Greens to not have to be in the government. Also, CDU-SPD would obviously be pro-Ukraine.

That way when time comes for the next election, there will be at least one of the two mainstream center-left parties (SPD or Green) which is NOT the incumbent, and therefore that means that in the next election there will be somewhere on the mainstream pro-Ukraine center-left for any anti-incumbent anti-governing-coalition voters to go.

The nightmare scenario would be that both SPD and Greens had to join the government, and then in the next election AFD benefited from being perceived as the opposition/"alternative." This is why it is particularly important for FDP and BSW to get slightly less than 5%.

I mean, at least Die Linke should get some anti-establishment votes now.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Saufe mich heute Abend richtig gottlos, tchüssi

[President Johnson]

Ugh, worst SPD result in history. I hope no other party clears 5%, since a coalition with 3 parties would be difficult.

That said, could Merz fail to be elected chancellor? Union+SPD most likely just have a bare majority. I looked up the results for Merkel, and she always got several votes less than her coalition. Merz is arguably more controversial, so has little room for error.

Could be difficult, but narrow majorities often discipline. At least that's being said.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ugh, worst SPD result in history. I hope no other party clears 5%, since a coalition with 3 parties would be difficult.

That said, could Merz fail to be elected chancellor? Union+SPD most likely just have a bare majority. I looked up the results for Merkel, and she always got several votes less than her coalition. Merz is arguably more controversial, so has little room for error.

Could be difficult, but narrow majorities often discipline. At least that's being said.

Do you think this government will last 4 years or will it likely fall within 2 or 3 .

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Saufe mich heute Abend richtig gottlos, tchüssi

Schönen Tag!

[Compuzled_One]

I assume not getting any seats is likely gonna kill the BSW?

[Banana Republican]

Looks like my prediction was close to the truth:

Not to flood/derail the megathread, you can post your final predictions for the German election in this thread. There's also a seat calculator for the new election law: https://www.mandatsrechner.de/

My final prediction is this:

Union: 28.9% - 212 seats
AfD: 20.7% - 152 seats
SPD: 16.4% - 120 seats
Greens: 12.3% - 90 seats
The Left: 7.7% - 56 seats
---
FDP: 4.8%
BSW: 4.7%
Others: 5.0%


Government: CDU/CSU-SPD: 332/630 seats (52.7%)

I also predict the coalition agreement will be approved by 60-65% of SPD members. Merz will be elected chancellor with ~ 320 votes. Narrowly clearing the threshold of 316 seats necessary. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will retain his position and become vice chancellor.

As for SPD, co-leader Lars Klingbeil retains his job, but Saskia Esken will be out and replaced by Anke Rehlinger.

I really hope that it ends up as a 2 party CDU-SPD government like your prediction.

The benefit of that is it will be more stable than a 3 party government, and it is good for either one of the SPD or the Greens to not have to be in the government. Also, CDU-SPD would obviously be pro-Ukraine.

That way when time comes for the next election, there will be at least one of the two mainstream center-left parties (SPD or Green) which is NOT the incumbent, and therefore that means that in the next election there will be somewhere on the mainstream pro-Ukraine center-left for any anti-incumbent anti-governing-coalition voters to go.

The nightmare scenario would be that both SPD and Greens had to join the government, and then in the next election AFD benefited from being perceived as the opposition/"alternative." This is why it is particularly important for FDP and BSW to get slightly less than 5%.

I mean, at least Die Linke should get some anti-establishment votes now.

That's true, but I don't just mean anti-establishment votes. I mean voters who are unhappy and want to vote for "the opposition." Part of the reason why the CDU/CSU is coming in first this election is that they are not in the government, so they have tended to get support from mainstream voters who are dissatisfied with the current Ampel government.

It's important in the next election for there to be somewhere for those sorts of voters to be able to go other than AFD, since there are a lot of people who won't vote for another alternative party such as Linke.

[Mike88]

The Prognose's were updated but with minimal changes.

[President Johnson]

First prognosis by ARD with no significant changes to the projection.

SPD: 16.0%
Union: 29.0%
Greens: 13.3%
Linke: 8.6%
FDP: 4.9%
BSW: 4.7%

[Mike88]

ZDF updated prediction now has AfD also bellow 20%.

[windjammer]

I assume not getting any seats is likely gonna kill the BSW?

Why would it kill bsw? Afd didn't get 5% a decade ago and look at them now.

I have been listening to the german channels and Weidel wants a coalition with CDU

[Harlow]

I assume not getting any seats is likely gonna kill the BSW?

It's interesting, because they're part of the state governments in Brandenburg and Thuringia. They could still have a foothold in the East because of this, or at the very least limp along.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If we assume the exits have it about right, then the specific pattern of over-and-underperformances suggest that if the SPD had swapped its Chancellor Candidate for someone other than the Reg Goodwin of Hamburg, then they would likely have finished second. Of course that would mostly have symbolic value: in functional terms the difference in seats would be fairly minor. Still.

[Yeahsayyeah]

I assume not getting any seats is likely gonna kill the BSW?

Why would it kill bsw? Afd didn't get 5% a decade ago and look at them now.

I have been listening to the german channels and Weidel wants a coalition with CDU

There were rumours/reports that Wagenknecht has been contemplating to retire if BSW doesn't make it into the Bundestag.

[President Johnson]

27% would like to see AfD in government, 70% against. Per ARD exit poll.

[Flyersfan232]

I assume not getting any seats is likely gonna kill the BSW?

Why would it kill bsw? Afd didn't get 5% a decade ago and look at them now.

I have been listening to the german channels and Weidel wants a coalition with CDU

small chance that hypothetical coalition may not have a majority

[DL]

ZDF updated prediction now has AfD also bellow 20%.

What do they say about FDP and BSW making it to 5% or not?

[Mike88]

ZDF updated prediction now has AfD also bellow 20%.

What do they say about FDP and BSW making it to 5% or not?

As of now, both stand at exactly 5.0%.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

If we assume the exits have it about right, then the specific pattern of over-and-underperformances suggest that if the SPD had swapped its Chancellor Candidate for someone other than Hamburg Reg Goodwin, then they would likely have finished second. Of course that would mostly have symbolic value: in functional terms the difference in seats would be fairly minor. Still.

It feels like a difficult thing to really modulate. It could have been beneficial. But frankly, 16% is not that bad given context. It's a huge disappointment compared to where the party was 20-25 years ago, but that's the yardstick that's realistic anymore (as long as the parties are unable to really do well among younger voters).

[Compuzled_One]

Looks like my prediction was close to the truth:

Not to flood/derail the megathread, you can post your final predictions for the German election in this thread. There's also a seat calculator for the new election law: https://www.mandatsrechner.de/

My final prediction is this:

Union: 28.9% - 212 seats
AfD: 20.7% - 152 seats
SPD: 16.4% - 120 seats
Greens: 12.3% - 90 seats
The Left: 7.7% - 56 seats
---
FDP: 4.8%
BSW: 4.7%
Others: 5.0%


Government: CDU/CSU-SPD: 332/630 seats (52.7%)

I also predict the coalition agreement will be approved by 60-65% of SPD members. Merz will be elected chancellor with ~ 320 votes. Narrowly clearing the threshold of 316 seats necessary. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will retain his position and become vice chancellor.

As for SPD, co-leader Lars Klingbeil retains his job, but Saskia Esken will be out and replaced by Anke Rehlinger.

I really hope that it ends up as a 2 party CDU-SPD government like your prediction.

The benefit of that is it will be more stable than a 3 party government, and it is good for either one of the SPD or the Greens to not have to be in the government. Also, CDU-SPD would obviously be pro-Ukraine.

That way when time comes for the next election, there will be at least one of the two mainstream center-left parties (SPD or Green) which is NOT the incumbent, and therefore that means that in the next election there will be somewhere on the mainstream pro-Ukraine center-left for any anti-incumbent anti-governing-coalition voters to go.

The nightmare scenario would be that both SPD and Greens had to join the government, and then in the next election AFD benefited from being perceived as the opposition/"alternative." This is why it is particularly important for FDP and BSW to get slightly less than 5%.

I mean, at least Die Linke should get some anti-establishment votes now.

That's true, but I don't just mean anti-establishment votes. I mean voters who are unhappy and want to vote for "the opposition." Part of the reason why the CDU/CSU is coming in first this election is that they are not in the government, so they have tended to get support from mainstream voters who are dissatisfied with the current Ampel government.

It's important in the next election for there to be somewhere for those sorts of voters to be able to go other than AFD, since there are a lot of people who won't vote for another alternative party such as Linke.

That's what I meant-should've admittedly used the right terminology.