🇩🇪 German federal election, 23 February 2025

[Harlow]

Both FDP and BSW teetering on the threshold. This will be quite something to watch.

[YL]

Some time until it becomes clear whether FDP and/or BSW have passed the threshold then, I suppose.

[Germany1994]

So AfD basically like the polls, I expected even worse.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Room cheered for FDP, BSW, and Linke results lmfao

[Oryxslayer]

ARD expects Union+ SPD to have a majority, Union + Greens in initial estimation to be barely short. With FDP in, both three party options work.

Turnout estimated 84%!

[Mike88]

Turnout projected to stand at 83%!!

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hopefully FDP gets over 5%

[BigSkyBob]

Who do we think benefits (or is hurt) by a super high turnout?

Change. I suspect Germans are angry about what has happened to their country, the economy, the recent wave of stabbing, immigrants who are demanding rather than grateful, etc. Jeb Bush said he didn't do angry well. He lost. The country was angry. Incumbent party, and Free Democrats suffer. The AFD, BSW, and Link have best claims to change, though maybe not for the better, while CDU/CSU will benefit from not being the SDP: the "change" of the changing deck chairs on the Titanic.

I guess now is as good of a time as any, especially as we approach zero hour, to make the obligatory International Board statement:

If you have not followed the election or the discussion until tonight, please try to behave like reasonable human beings.

This is not your favorite social media site. Coming in here just to say "Yay XYZ" or "Boo XYZ," and them use the results to justify partisan arguments from another country is not appreciated. I have no doubt it'll still happen, like it has in other prominent past non-US contests. However, nobody likes these tangents and how much effort it takes to shut them down.

I have followed this election and this thread carefully for some time. The polls are completely in line with my position, ie the SDP and the Free Democrat have both collapsed. I suspect that the Free Democrat demographic is more apt to vote, so it benefits less from increasing turnout, and that demographic isn't as angry, so is less likely to be motivated than other apolitical demographics. German parties that do anger well, AFD, BSW and Link, are going to be the beneficiaries of increased turnout. Perhaps, even more than a mandatory voting situation.

Do you think FDP breaks 5%?

I believe higher than expected turnout make that less likely. On the bubble means on the bubble. The converse is also true for Link and BSW. And, again, they are on the bubble. I certainly don't want Link in, but it is what it is.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Oh look, we were right that the AfD would not overperform.

9th year in a row

[President Johnson]

One good news: Good bye Kremlin shill Sahra Wagenknecht

[UNL]

Room cheered for FDP, BSW, and Linke results lmfao

I suppose some wins aren’t for the victor.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Hopefully these idiots remain below 20 %

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Oh look, we were right that the AfD would not overperform.

9th year in a row

Remember when people were saying i was gonna be wrong about that? Lmao.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Called it.

you predicted that AfD would "underperform pretty significantly" and... they didn't?

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Do you think FDP breaks 5%?

I believe higher than expected turnout make that less likely. On the bubble means on the bubble. The converse is also true for Link and BSW. And, again, they are on the bubble. I certainly don't want Link in, but it is what it is.

Fair.

[President Johnson]

Hopefully FDP gets over 5%

That would again lead to an instable government. If FDP gets in, Merz needs two coalition partners, which makes things much more complicated.

[#UnbanTender]

Second worst results ever for Union. Hardly a triumph for Merz.

[Banana Republican]

Please oh please, ye election result Gods, let both FDP and especially BSW come in under the 5% threshold.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Called it.

you predicted that AfD would "underperform pretty significantly" and... they didn't?

Significantly for German standards, and my predictions of the Union slightly underperforming, SPD overpeforming, and Linke overperforming, were all correct.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously not an ideal set of projections, but if they hold then things could have easily been a lot worse. Mild underperformance for the Union and the AfD, mild overperformance for the SPD, Greens either about on track or mildly under, solid overperformance for the Left, big question marks for the other two. If it holds.

[President Johnson]

Looks like my prediction was close to the truth:

Not to flood/derail the megathread, you can post your final predictions for the German election in this thread. There's also a seat calculator for the new election law: https://www.mandatsrechner.de/

My final prediction is this:

Union: 28.9% - 212 seats
AfD: 20.7% - 152 seats
SPD: 16.4% - 120 seats
Greens: 12.3% - 90 seats
The Left: 7.7% - 56 seats
---
FDP: 4.8%
BSW: 4.7%
Others: 5.0%


Government: CDU/CSU-SPD: 332/630 seats (52.7%)

I also predict the coalition agreement will be approved by 60-65% of SPD members. Merz will be elected chancellor with ~ 320 votes. Narrowly clearing the threshold of 316 seats necessary. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will retain his position and become vice chancellor.

As for SPD, co-leader Lars Klingbeil retains his job, but Saskia Esken will be out and replaced by Anke Rehlinger.

[Mike88]

Some time until it becomes clear whether FDP and/or BSW have passed the threshold then, I suppose.

Yeah, it will be just like 2013, when FDP and AfD were hovering around 5% all night long.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Hopefully FDP gets over 5%

That would again lead to an instable government. If FDP gets in, Merz needs two coalition partners, which makes things much more complicated.

The best outcome is either BSW/FDP both fail to get in and GroKo happens, or all parties break the threshold, and thus AfD gets the smallest possible number of seats given the current constellation.

[buritobr]

Not catastrophic for the left and center-left we could expect one month ago, not wonderful for the right and center-right we could expect one month ago.

If these results are confirmed, and if we compare the sum SPD+Grüne+Linke+BSW to the sum SPD+Grüne+Linke of previous elections, we would see that the total progressive vote didn't decline very much

Very good to see Linke recovery

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Some time until it becomes clear whether FDP and/or BSW have passed the threshold then, I suppose.

Yeah, it will be just like 2013, when FDP and AfD were hovering around 5% all night long.

I was just thinking that.