California 2024 Presidential Results

[kwabbit]

Orange County is now at 49.0% Harris & 48.1% Trump with 83% reporting, so it's likely remaining Harris unless this last batch of ballots leans very R. Riverside County is now at Trump 49.2% & Harris 48.4%, with 73% reporting. Since it's close, it looks like it's possible Riverside could flip to Harris too, depending on what the remainder looks like. San Bernardino County has Trump 50.8% & Harris 46.8% with 68% reporting, so that county should stay with Trump with that error room. So Trump is most likely getting either 1 or 2 counties in SoCal. All of the non-Sacramento Central Valley counties look pretty safe for Trump, so it looks like Trump is going from the split the parties have had in the Central Valley since 2008 to a near clean sweep of the region. Which tracks due to that region's very high Hispanic population.

I think Riverside will stay with him CA-41 always red shifts so I assume Riverside will as well. Orange blue shifts. I don’t recall San Bernardino. In 2022 statewide Newsom went from +15 on election night to +21 at his peak down to +18.4. I think it will follow that general path but who knows.

[E-Dawg]

...so it looks like Trump is going from the split the parties have had in the Central Valley since 2008 to a near clean sweep of the region. Which tracks due to that region's very high Hispanic population.

I am old enough to remember when Imperial County was a Hispanic bellwether

With 57% reporting, Imperial County is Harris 52.2%, Trump 45.3%, which is a massive swing for Trump and is in line with similar Hispanic swings elsewhere.

[Sbane]

The Mandate

https://www.instagram.com/p/DCK1oA2OiQo/

Yeah, might want to wait until the votes are counted bud.

[Sbane]

Orange County is now at 49.0% Harris & 48.1% Trump with 83% reporting, so it's likely remaining Harris unless this last batch of ballots leans very R. Riverside County is now at Trump 49.2% & Harris 48.4%, with 73% reporting. Since it's close, it looks like it's possible Riverside could flip to Harris too, depending on what the remainder looks like. San Bernardino County has Trump 50.8% & Harris 46.8% with 68% reporting, so that county should stay with Trump with that error room. So Trump is most likely getting either 1 or 2 counties in SoCal. All of the non-Sacramento Central Valley counties look pretty safe for Trump, so it looks like Trump is going from the split the parties have had in the Central Valley since 2008 to a near clean sweep of the region. Which tracks due to that region's very high Hispanic population.

I think Riverside will stay with him CA-41 always red shifts so I assume Riverside will as well. Orange blue shifts. I don’t recall San Bernardino. In 2022 statewide Newsom went from +15 on election night to +21 at his peak down to +18.4. I think it will follow that general path but who knows.

CA-41 may red shift but that doesn't necessarily mean Riverside county as a whole will as well. I don't even think CA-41 will red shift from this point, but it probably doesn't blue shift enough for Calvert to lose. Riverside County as a whole will just blue shift even more than the district. CA-41 includes Palm Springs where you have gay and other liberal retirees who voted early and their votes have already been counted. The rest of the district is exurban commuter land where 2 hour daily commutes are common. These people don't have the time to vote early and their votes will be counted later than Palm Springs. The rest of Riverside County is more heavily hispanic and there will be a greater blue shift there than in CA-41.

[E-Dawg]

California is now at 89% reporting with Harris 58.7% to Trump 38.2%. It looks like Trump is holding Riverside County, at 94% reporting he's up 49.0% to 48.3%. So Trump is likely going from the 0 SoCal Counties he had in 2016 & 2020, to 2 this time around (Riverside & San Bernardino). San Joaquin may also be staying with Trump, he's ahead there 48.8% to 48.2% with 92% reporting. So Trump's likely getting a clean sweep of the Central Valley minus Sacramento, which is a region that was pretty evenly split the last 4 elections.

[E-Dawg]

Imperial County has firmly gone the way of the Rio Grande Valley. It voted Clinton 68.5% to 26.6% in 2016 and Biden 61.1% to 36.7% in 2020. In 2024, with 84% reporting Harris is only leading 50.9% to 46.4%.

[E-Dawg]

Imperial County has firmly gone the way of the Rio Grande Valley. It voted Clinton 68.5% to 26.6% in 2016 and Biden 61.1% to 36.7% in 2020. In 2024, with 84% reporting Harris is only leading 50.9% to 46.4%.

Update: With 91% reporting, Harris is only ahead in Imperial County 49.9% to 47.4%. Is Imperial County flipping to Trump now on the table? Because Trump just closed 2.0% of that 4.5% gap with the latest 7% in, and there's still 9% left (assuming CNN's estimate is accurate). Even if Trump doesn't flip it, the county being under 50% for Harris is still wild.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Imperial County has firmly gone the way of the Rio Grande Valley. It voted Clinton 68.5% to 26.6% in 2016 and Biden 61.1% to 36.7% in 2020. In 2024, with 84% reporting Harris is only leading 50.9% to 46.4%.

Didn't they get the memo Harris was supposed to have home state advantage or something?

Another loss for the home turf advantage was
2016: Trump gets less than 10% in his home county of Manhattan
2020: Trump breaks 10% now that his primary residence is no longer there
2024: Now that it's been a few years since his primary residence changed and he was convicted of 34 felonies there, he gets 17%.

[E-Dawg]

Imperial County has firmly gone the way of the Rio Grande Valley. It voted Clinton 68.5% to 26.6% in 2016 and Biden 61.1% to 36.7% in 2020. In 2024, with 84% reporting Harris is only leading 50.9% to 46.4%.

Didn't they get the memo Harris was supposed to have home state advantage or something?

Another loss for the home turf advantage was
2016: Trump gets less than 10% in his home county of Manhattan
2020: Trump breaks 10% now that his primary residence is no longer there
2024: Now that it's been a few years since his primary residence changed and he was convicted of 34 felonies there, he gets 17%.

I mean, Harris never exactly performed well in any of her statewide elections in California, she actually performed significantly better against Trump in California than she did against the Republicans in her 2010 & 2014 Attorney General races!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Imperial County has firmly gone the way of the Rio Grande Valley. It voted Clinton 68.5% to 26.6% in 2016 and Biden 61.1% to 36.7% in 2020. In 2024, with 84% reporting Harris is only leading 50.9% to 46.4%.

Didn't they get the memo Harris was supposed to have home state advantage or something?

Another loss for the home turf advantage was
2016: Trump gets less than 10% in his home county of Manhattan
2020: Trump breaks 10% now that his primary residence is no longer there
2024: Now that it's been a few years since his primary residence changed and he was convicted of 34 felonies there, he gets 17%.

I mean, Harris never exactly performed well in any of her statewide elections in California, she actually performed significantly better against Trump in California than she did against the Republicans in her 2010 & 2014 Attorney General races!

Well, there wasn't much room to perform worse than her 2010 election and still win.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Song for Californian Democrats

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DCX8tvQPd2u/

[politicallefty]

With the votes as they are right now, Harris is actually getting a higher percentage in Marin than San Francisco (though the latter is better for her on the margin). San Francisco hasn't been surpassed on overall vote total since 1976 (and 1960 before that).

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1858688807039574264

This tweet shows a 2k gain of R votes from 2020 and a 11k loss of D votes from 2020 by the way. The turnout differential is consistent with the big city CA county-level results.

[Annatar]

Its notable Trump is on track to do only 2% worse in LA county than Bush did in 2000, Bush lost it by 31%, Trump is losing it by 33%, but statewide he is on track to do 9% worse than Bush. Gives an idea of how much areas of CA outside of LA have shifted towards democrats since 2000, primarily heavily college educated counties.

[iceman]

as of now, how many votes still outstanding in California?

[Mexican Wolf]

as of now, how many votes still outstanding in California?

NBC is estimating there's about 510,000 outstanding ballots left to count in the presidential race.

[iceman]

as of now, how many votes still outstanding in California?

NBC is estimating there's about 510,000 outstanding ballots left to count in the presidential race.

so Harris may end up 2 million less margin of votes in California than what Biden achieved in 2020.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

I think we can all agree that California’s vote counting process is ridiculous, but why do they not seem to care to want to reform it? Think about all the conspiracy theories that wouldn’t be able to have as much teeth if CA just got their sh**t together.

[E-Dawg]

I think we can all agree that California’s vote counting process is ridiculous, but why do they not seem to care to want to reform it? Think about all the conspiracy theories that wouldn’t be able to have as much teeth if CA just got their sh**t together.

Could you imagine if an election came down to votes outstanding from Lake County?! The vote counting process there is so absurd that I wouldn't even blame people for having conspiracy theories about it!

[E-Dawg]

Alright, it appears that Lake County & Imperial County are still potential Trump flips. Lake County has Harris ahead by only 12 votes with 93% in, and Imperial County has Harris ahead by 1.7% with 88% in.

[New World Man]

It's absolute bs that it takes this long.