California 2024 Presidential Results

[TheReckoning]

It probably ends up around Harris + 20

Harris +16-17 is more likely.

I’m expecting remaining vote to go in Harris’ favor, unless you think CA shifted right more than any other state this cycle.

It kind of did. Like Orange County is red again for example.

OC is red with over 30% of the vote left to count. It will be blue by the time the vote is counted.

I think the NPV will be closer than what a lot of people think because they’re underestimating how many votes California alone will deliver to Harris once it’s all counted. There’s also more to be counted in MD, OR, WA, and CO. I think it took a while for Clinton to actually surpass Trump in the NPV back in 2016.

[E-Dawg]

It probably ends up around Harris + 20

Harris +16-17 is more likely.

I’m expecting remaining vote to go in Harris’ favor, unless you think CA shifted right more than any other state this cycle.

It kind of did. Like Orange County is red again for example.

OC is red with over 30% of the vote left to count. It will be blue by the time the vote is counted.

I think the NPV will be closer than what a lot of people think because they’re underestimating how many votes California alone will deliver to Harris once it’s all counted. There’s also more to be counted in MD, OR, WA, and CO. I think it took a while for Clinton to actually surpass Trump in the NPV back in 2016.

Just curious, do you have any estimations for the Harris margin in California & Trump's NPV margin?

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

It probably ends up around Harris + 20

Harris +16-17 is more likely.

I’m expecting remaining vote to go in Harris’ favor, unless you think CA shifted right more than any other state this cycle.

It kind of did. Like Orange County is red again for example.

OC is red with over 30% of the vote left to count. It will be blue by the time the vote is counted.

I think the NPV will be closer than what a lot of people think because they’re underestimating how many votes California alone will deliver to Harris once it’s all counted. There’s also more to be counted in MD, OR, WA, and CO. I think it took a while for Clinton to actually surpass Trump in the NPV back in 2016.

If I remember correctly, it was known the next morning.

[E-Dawg]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_California
lol, on Wikipedia a county map was prematurely added

[BaldEagle1991]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_California
lol, on Wikipedia a county map was prematurely added

I think that’s pretty much it, that’s why they added it in there.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_California
lol, on Wikipedia a county map was prematurely added

I think that’s pretty much it, that’s why they added it in there.

Orange County will definitely flip back D once the remaining 31% of the vote in the county is in. Less confident about Riverside, which that map has Harris winning but Trump is currently leading in.  

[BaldEagle1991]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_California
lol, on Wikipedia a county map was prematurely added

I think that’s pretty much it, that’s why they added it in there.

Orange County will definitely flip back D once the remaining 31% of the vote in the county is in. Less confident about Riverside, which that map has Harris winning but Trump is currently leading in.  

I’m not too confident about Orange County, knowing that place.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Orange flipped to Harris. Nevada County may have as well. Could’ve sworn Nevada County had been Trump earlier, which was a surprise. It’s narrowly Harris now though. Lake still has a long way to go and it wouldn’t shock me if it goes for Trump.

[Aurelius2]

Pretty strong blue-shift today, from the subset of results I've been looking at, though note that I've mainly been looking at presidential and Prop 3 margins. It's worth noting that some years, you'll have a series of red-shift days followed by a series of blue-shift days, or vice versa. However, in general the vote dumps get smaller as you get further from election day, so even if there's a week 2 red-shift, it'll have less impact than the current blue-shift.

[Aurelius2]

Orange flipped to Harris. Nevada County may have as well. Could’ve sworn Nevada County had been Trump earlier, which was a surprise. It’s narrowly Harris now though. Lake still has a long way to go and it wouldn’t shock me if it goes for Trump.

Nevada County went from 20% to 29% today, lol. Lake County is probably gonna do its usual thing: radio silence from now until right before the certification deadline, when it'll dump 10,000+ ballots all at once. I think I remember, though I'm not certain, the final Lake County dump in 2022-Gov flipping the county from blue to red.

[E-Dawg]

Orange flipped to Harris. Nevada County may have as well. Could’ve sworn Nevada County had been Trump earlier, which was a surprise. It’s narrowly Harris now though. Lake still has a long way to go and it wouldn’t shock me if it goes for Trump.

Nevada County went from 20% to 29% today, lol. Lake County is probably gonna do its usual thing: radio silence from now until right before the certification deadline, when it'll dump 10,000+ ballots all at once. I think I remember, though I'm not certain, the final Lake County dump in 2022-Gov flipping the county from blue to red.

The way elections are run in California, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, and Colorado (and possibly others, these are just the states that I remember are taking forever this time) is completely unacceptable. We should have at least 95% of the votes counted night of, the majority of states in the country show that is more than possible even with mail ins.

[Aurelius2]

Orange flipped to Harris. Nevada County may have as well. Could’ve sworn Nevada County had been Trump earlier, which was a surprise. It’s narrowly Harris now though. Lake still has a long way to go and it wouldn’t shock me if it goes for Trump.

Nevada County went from 20% to 29% today, lol. Lake County is probably gonna do its usual thing: radio silence from now until right before the certification deadline, when it'll dump 10,000+ ballots all at once. I think I remember, though I'm not certain, the final Lake County dump in 2022-Gov flipping the county from blue to red.

The way elections are run in California, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, and Colorado (and possibly others, these are just the states that I remember are taking forever this time) is completely unacceptable. We should have at least 95% of the votes counted night of, the majority of states in the country show that is more than possible even with mail ins.

In general I'm just not comfortable with universal VBM (which some of those states have; others have in-person voting options but mostly use VBM). There are so many things that I have issues with:
- in general, mail voting is more susceptible to untoward influence by others; a spouse watching you fill out your ballot to make sure you fill it out "correctly" for instance; making this the only way to vote is fraught with danger
- if you screw up your ballot or change your mind, it'll be difficult if not impossible to get a replacement ballot
- signature match is a terrible way to verify identity, especially for young people who never learned cursive; voter ID is much better, yet obviously only works in person
- how the hell are blind people supposed to fill out a mail ballot? I googled this out of curiosity and all the suggestions I saw are incredibly cumbersome. In sane states with in-person voting, you can just request assistance and I believe they'll usually provide a pair of poll workers, one from each party, to assist
- much easier attack vectors for interference by malevolent actors, as we saw this year with the burning of the ballot dropbox in Washington state (and this one isn't just a problem with all-mail voting, it's a problem with mail voting altogether)
and all sorts of other things. The slow counts are only one of the many issues.

[BaldEagle1991]

Any chances Orange stays blue or there’s a possibility it switches back to red?

Also is CA having a large rightward swing after these mail in counts like the Eastern portions of the country?

[Skill and Chance]

Orange flipped to Harris. Nevada County may have as well. Could’ve sworn Nevada County had been Trump earlier, which was a surprise. It’s narrowly Harris now though. Lake still has a long way to go and it wouldn’t shock me if it goes for Trump.

Nevada County went from 20% to 29% today, lol. Lake County is probably gonna do its usual thing: radio silence from now until right before the certification deadline, when it'll dump 10,000+ ballots all at once. I think I remember, though I'm not certain, the final Lake County dump in 2022-Gov flipping the county from blue to red.

The way elections are run in California, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, and Colorado (and possibly others, these are just the states that I remember are taking forever this time) is completely unacceptable. We should have at least 95% of the votes counted night of, the majority of states in the country show that is more than possible even with mail ins.

In general I'm just not comfortable with universal VBM (which some of those states have; others have in-person voting options but mostly use VBM). There are so many things that I have issues with:
- in general, mail voting is more susceptible to untoward influence by others; a spouse watching you fill out your ballot to make sure you fill it out "correctly" for instance; making this the only way to vote is fraught with danger
- if you screw up your ballot or change your mind, it'll be difficult if not impossible to get a replacement ballot
- signature match is a terrible way to verify identity, especially for young people who never learned cursive; voter ID is much better, yet obviously only works in person
- how the hell are blind people supposed to fill out a mail ballot? I googled this out of curiosity and all the suggestions I saw are incredibly cumbersome. In sane states with in-person voting, you can just request assistance and I believe they'll usually provide a pair of poll workers, one from each party, to assist
- much easier attack vectors for interference by malevolent actors, as we saw this year with the burning of the ballot dropbox in Washington state (and this one isn't just a problem with all-mail voting, it's a problem with mail voting altogether)
and all sorts of other things. The slow counts are only one of the many issues.

The smarter states use social security and/or state id numbers for identity verification rather than signatures.  However, I agree with everything else on here and oppose universal VBM.

[Sbane]

Any chances Orange stays blue or there’s a possibility it switches back to red?

Also is CA having a large rightward swing after these mail in counts like the Eastern portions of the country?

Not only will it stay blue but Harris should win it by at least a couple points in the end, if not more.

[BaldEagle1991]

Any chances Orange stays blue or there’s a possibility it switches back to red?

Also is CA having a large rightward swing after these mail in counts like the Eastern portions of the country?

Not only will it stay blue but Harris should win it by at least a couple points in the end, if not more.

What about my other Q?

[Sbane]

Any chances Orange stays blue or there’s a possibility it switches back to red?

Also is CA having a large rightward swing after these mail in counts like the Eastern portions of the country?

Not only will it stay blue but Harris should win it by at least a couple points in the end, if not more.

What about my other Q?

Obviously California is swinging big time to Trump. Even if it ends up about 4 points to the left of where it is now, that is still a Republican trend. Realistically it won't move more than a few points from where it is right now.

[vileplume]

Orange flipped to Harris. Nevada County may have as well. Could’ve sworn Nevada County had been Trump earlier, which was a surprise. It’s narrowly Harris now though. Lake still has a long way to go and it wouldn’t shock me if it goes for Trump.

Imperial seems to moving closer from when I last looked, any chance that flips? I'm not sure which way the remaining vote is likely to lean.

Also are Riverside & San Bernadino also likely to flip back to Harris? Trump's lead is pretty small in the later atm (0.9%), less so in the former (4.8%).

[E-Dawg]

Any chances Orange stays blue or there’s a possibility it switches back to red?

Also is CA having a large rightward swing after these mail in counts like the Eastern portions of the country?

Not only will it stay blue but Harris should win it by at least a couple points in the end, if not more.

What about my other Q?

Obviously California is swinging big time to Trump. Even if it ends up about 4 points to the left of where it is now, that is still a Republican trend. Realistically it won't move more than a few points from where it is right now.

Think there is any chance of Harris surpassing 60%?

[BaldEagle1991]

Any chances Orange stays blue or there’s a possibility it switches back to red?

Also is CA having a large rightward swing after these mail in counts like the Eastern portions of the country?

Not only will it stay blue but Harris should win it by at least a couple points in the end, if not more.

What about my other Q?

Obviously California is swinging big time to Trump. Even if it ends up about 4 points to the left of where it is now, that is still a Republican trend. Realistically it won't move more than a few points from where it is right now.

Think there is any chance of Harris surpassing 60%?

Doubt it if the state is swinging right.

[Sbane]

Any chances Orange stays blue or there’s a possibility it switches back to red?

Also is CA having a large rightward swing after these mail in counts like the Eastern portions of the country?

Not only will it stay blue but Harris should win it by at least a couple points in the end, if not more.

What about my other Q?

Obviously California is swinging big time to Trump. Even if it ends up about 4 points to the left of where it is now, that is still a Republican trend. Realistically it won't move more than a few points from where it is right now.

Think there is any chance of Harris surpassing 60%?

If I had to guess California swings another 3 points towards Harris which means she falls short of 60. There is a lot of uncertainty though. Traditionally before the pandemic the last votes to count would be very blue but that pattern was disrupted by the pandemic. So far there has been a fairly decent blue shift so maybe there is a chance it could swing by more than 3 points. That is the scenario where even Calvert might be in trouble and Steele could get a scare.


Also the late mail ballots are from younger, less engaged voters and they shifted hard towards Trump. They are still going to vote d but the shift might be less than in previous years in the late vote.

[E-Dawg]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_California
The map on this page is outdated, if anybody here who knows how to make those maps want to fix it

[Meclazine for Israel]

The Mandate

https://www.instagram.com/p/DCK1oA2OiQo/

[E-Dawg]

Orange County is now at 49.0% Harris & 48.1% Trump with 83% reporting, so it's likely remaining Harris unless this last batch of ballots leans very R. Riverside County is now at Trump 49.2% & Harris 48.4%, with 73% reporting. Since it's close, it looks like it's possible Riverside could flip to Harris too, depending on what the remainder looks like. San Bernardino County has Trump 50.8% & Harris 46.8% with 68% reporting, so that county should stay with Trump with that error room. So Trump is most likely getting either 1 or 2 counties in SoCal. All of the non-Sacramento Central Valley counties look pretty safe for Trump, so it looks like Trump is going from the split the parties have had in the Central Valley since 2008 to a near clean sweep of the region. Which tracks due to that region's very high Hispanic population.

[Steve from Lambeth]

...so it looks like Trump is going from the split the parties have had in the Central Valley since 2008 to a near clean sweep of the region. Which tracks due to that region's very high Hispanic population.

I am old enough to remember when Imperial County was a Hispanic bellwether