California 2024 Presidential Results

[BaldEagle1991]

If Trump is at 45% with Hispanics nationally, of course California will be closer.

     What's interesting is that Trump's gains with Latinos were far more regionalized in 2020, with big improvements in Miami-Dade and the RGV, but nothing to speak of in California. Him making gains with Californian Latinos is a story that should not be ignored.

He did make gains among Hispanics in Cali in 2020. Even the Newsom recall yes voters gained among CA Hispanics. They’re just smaller compared to those areas.

[E-Dawg]

What is taking California, Arizona, and to a lesser extent Nevada, so long? Vast majority of the states in the country have figured out how to quickly count votes even with mail ins, I don't know why these states take so long. Embarrassing.

https://twitter.com/GinaRoberts911/status/1853973356120334634

tl;dr These states allow voters to drop mail ballots in drop boxes on election day, and the state has to do identity checks on all of these, which take a long time. Other forms of voting (in person, or early vote by mail) are generally counted much faster. In the states that do finish counting more quickly, voters generally can only vote/drop off mail ballots in person on election day.

Good info. That policy clearly needs to change then, the votes taking this long to count is not acceptable. People have plenty of time before election day to drop off mail ins, if they fail to do so then they can do it in person on election day.

[BaldEagle1991]

I’m anecdotally hearing word that in the Bay Area Trump narrowly won Daly City and Miliptas. Just curious to see if thats true.

[Roll Roons]

I’m anecdotally hearing word that in the Bay Area Trump narrowly won Daly City and Miliptas. Just curious to see if thats true.

Wow. Probably the first time he won any Bay Area cities.

[jojoju1998]

I’m anecdotally hearing word that in the Bay Area Trump narrowly won Daly City and Miliptas. Just curious to see if thats true.

Wow. Probably the first time he won any Bay Area cities.

Milpitas and Daly City are Asian majority.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

I’m anecdotally hearing word that in the Bay Area Trump narrowly won Daly City and Miliptas. Just curious to see if thats true.

San Mateo County being Harris+47 with 56% of the vote in makes me doubt Daly City- which seems to be less Filipino (32%) and more Chinese (19%) than I expected. IIRC HRC and Biden both got upper 70s there.

I'm also skeptical of Milpitas outright flipping, but another 10%-ish R swing from 2020 wouldn't surprise me. Milpitas is ~70% Asian (with plenty of Filipinos, Vietnamese, ethnic Chinese, and Subcontinentals), lower-middle class and blue collar.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Inyo was always a weird Biden flip imo. I’m also unsure of what ballots have been reported. The Central Valley going red tracks with gains by Trump among Hispanic voters.

Also the Vietnamese and Filipinos in California I heard are helping to flip the state right this time too

Let's wait until all the votes are in, right now NYT has CA at 57-40. Very curious what Milpitas and Long Beach will look like when everything's said and done.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/politics/democrats-2020-election.html.

A review of the 2020 election, conducted by several prominent Democratic advocacy groups, has concluded that the party is at risk of losing ground with Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters unless it does a better job presenting an economic agenda and countering Republican efforts to spread misinformation and tie all Democratic candidates to the far left.

The 73-page report, obtained by The New York Times, was assembled at the behest of three major Democratic interest groups: Third Way, a centrist think tank, and the Collective PAC and the Latino Victory Fund, which promote Black and Hispanic candidates. It appears to be the most thorough act of self-criticism carried out by Democrats or Republicans after the last campaign.

The document is all the more striking because it is addressed to a victorious party: Despite their successes, Democrats had hoped to achieve more robust control of both chambers of Congress, rather than the ultra-precarious margins they enjoy.

Three prominent Democratic groups, Third Way, the Collective PAC and the Latino Victory Fund, conducted a review of the 2020 election.

READ DOCUMENT 73 PAGES

In part, the study found, Democrats fell short of their aspirations because many House and Senate candidates failed to match Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s support with voters of color who loathed Mr. Trump but distrusted the Democratic Party as a whole. Those constituencies included Hispanic voters in Florida and Texas, Vietnamese American and Filipino American voters in California, and Black voters in North Carolina.

Overall, the report warns, Democrats in 2020 lacked a core argument about the economy and recovering from the coronavirus pandemic — one that might have helped candidates repel Republican claims that they wanted to “keep the economy shut down,” or worse. The party “leaned too heavily on ‘anti-Trump’ rhetoric,” the report concludes.

That analysis was a freakin’ oracle that beat out Allan Litchman, Nate Silver, and Ann Seltzer.

David Shor in long-form interview fashion was discussing all the Democrats' problems with minority voters less than 2 weeks after the 2020 election.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/11/david-shor-analysis-2020-election-autopsy-democrats-polls.html

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334

[MaynardFriedman]

Yes and the magnitude of the swings in CA are a mirage. All of the in-person election day ballots have been counted, they broke incredibly Republican. Only late mail-ins are left. So Harris' margin will increase substantially.

[BaldEagle1991]

I’m anecdotally hearing word that in the Bay Area Trump narrowly won Daly City and Miliptas. Just curious to see if thats true.

San Mateo County being Harris+47 with 56% of the vote in makes me doubt Daly City- which seems to be less Filipino (32%) and more Chinese (19%) than I expected. IIRC HRC and Biden both got upper 70s there.

I'm also skeptical of Milpitas outright flipping, but another 10%-ish R swing from 2020 wouldn't surprise me. Milpitas is ~70% Asian (with plenty of Filipinos, Vietnamese, ethnic Chinese, and Subcontinentals), lower-middle class and blue collar.

Wouldn’t surprise me if these communities had 10-20% swings to Trump.

[oldtimer]

If Trump is at 45% with Hispanics nationally, of course California will be closer.

     What's interesting is that Trump's gains with Latinos were far more regionalized in 2020, with big improvements in Miami-Dade and the RGV, but nothing to speak of in California. Him making gains with Californian Latinos is a story that should not be ignored.

If you look at Imperial County it's obvious that he made gains with California Hispanics in 2020 too.

[MaynardFriedman]

If Trump is at 45% with Hispanics nationally, of course California will be closer.

     What's interesting is that Trump's gains with Latinos were far more regionalized in 2020, with big improvements in Miami-Dade and the RGV, but nothing to speak of in California. Him making gains with Californian Latinos is a story that should not be ignored.

If you look at Imperial County it's obvious that he made gains with California Hispanics in 2020 too.

Yes, the gains were actually quite large.

[oldtimer]

If Trump is at 45% with Hispanics nationally, of course California will be closer.

     What's interesting is that Trump's gains with Latinos were far more regionalized in 2020, with big improvements in Miami-Dade and the RGV, but nothing to speak of in California. Him making gains with Californian Latinos is a story that should not be ignored.

If you look at Imperial County it's obvious that he made gains with California Hispanics in 2020 too.

Yes, the gains were actually quite large.

Trump has gained with Minorities in 2016, 2020 and 2024.

Those gains where invisible in the States in the past because the White vote was more dominant, you only saw them on House levels.

The GOP bottomed out locally in California around the time Trump appeared.

[It's Time.]

Is this the worst home state performance in decades? I think Trump managed to swing NY a bit in 2016. It seems despite Harris being a 2x state AG and a Senator she was quite invisible in the state to voters during her tenure.

Harris barely won AG in 2010 ran against another Democrat in 2016. There was never any evidence she was particularly well-liked in her home state like Biden in 2020.

[Chief Justice PiT]

If Trump is at 45% with Hispanics nationally, of course California will be closer.

     What's interesting is that Trump's gains with Latinos were far more regionalized in 2020, with big improvements in Miami-Dade and the RGV, but nothing to speak of in California. Him making gains with Californian Latinos is a story that should not be ignored.

He did make gains among Hispanics in Cali in 2020. Even the Newsom recall yes voters gained among CA Hispanics. They’re just smaller compared to those areas.

     I don't mean that the gains were literally zero, but they were quite tiny compared to FL/TX in 2020 and CA in 2024, failing to make a meaningful impact on the state's overall margin back in 2020. I expected him to make some gains in CA, but not to nearly this extent.

[E-Dawg]

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?admin1=06&election-data-id=2024-PG&selected-election-data-id=2024-PG-CA&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false

NEW VOTE DUMP: Statewide Harris is now at 57.6%, Harris at 39.7%, with 63% reporting. Orange County at a 0.5% Trump lead with 74% reporting

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?admin1=06&election-data-id=2024-PG&selected-election-data-id=2024-PG-CA&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false

NEW VOTE DUMP: Statewide Harris is now at 57.6%, Harris at 39.7%, with 63% reporting. Orange County at a 0.5% Trump lead with 74% reporting

Is it likely to only get more Dem from here?  This will be the difference between Trump +0.5 and Trump +2.5 in the PV…

[Sbane]

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?admin1=06&election-data-id=2024-PG&selected-election-data-id=2024-PG-CA&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false

NEW VOTE DUMP: Statewide Harris is now at 57.6%, Harris at 39.7%, with 63% reporting. Orange County at a 0.5% Trump lead with 74% reporting

This is going to tighten up a lot of these house races where the Republican is leading. Wouldn't be surprised if Baugh, Garcia and Duarte lose. Perhaps Calvert as well. Steele should hold on but it will be within a point.

[TheReckoning]

If Trump is at 45% with Hispanics nationally, of course California will be closer.

     What's interesting is that Trump's gains with Latinos were far more regionalized in 2020, with big improvements in Miami-Dade and the RGV, but nothing to speak of in California. Him making gains with Californian Latinos is a story that should not be ignored.

If you look at Imperial County it's obvious that he made gains with California Hispanics in 2020 too.

Yes, the gains were actually quite large.

Trump has gained with Minorities in 2016, 2020 and 2024.

Really? CA and TX swung 7 points against him in 2016.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It probably ends up around Harris + 20

[E-Dawg]

It will be interesting to see if Washington votes to the left of California

[BaldEagle1991]

It probably ends up around Harris + 20

Harris +16-17 is more likely.

[TheReckoning]

It probably ends up around Harris + 20

Harris +16-17 is more likely.

I’m expecting remaining vote to go in Harris’ favor, unless you think CA shifted right more than any other state this cycle.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?admin1=06&election-data-id=2024-PG&selected-election-data-id=2024-PG-CA&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false

NEW VOTE DUMP: Statewide Harris is now at 57.6%, Harris at 39.7%, with 63% reporting. Orange County at a 0.5% Trump lead with 74% reporting

This is going to tighten up a lot of these house races where the Republican is leading. Wouldn't be surprised if Baugh, Garcia and Duarte lose. Perhaps Calvert as well. Steele should hold on but it will be within a point.

Crossing my fingers she goes down. Really does look like CA-47 will stay D.

It will be interesting to see if Washington votes to the left of California

This wasn’t a possibility I seriously entertained because I figured WA would also swing noticeably R in the scenario where CA is that close.

[BaldEagle1991]

It probably ends up around Harris + 20

Harris +16-17 is more likely.

I’m expecting remaining vote to go in Harris’ favor, unless you think CA shifted right more than any other state this cycle.

It kind of did. Like Orange County is red again for example.

[E-Dawg]

It probably ends up around Harris + 20

Harris +16-17 is more likely.

I’m expecting remaining vote to go in Harris’ favor, unless you think CA shifted right more than any other state this cycle.

It's a safe blue state with a ton of Hispanics in the Central Valley and SoCal, so I could see Trump really doing this well and holding all of the Central Valley (minus Sacramento) and a few counties in SoCal. Is it true that the election day vote is already counted and the remainder is late mail ins? If that's the case than Harris will likely grow her margin, but IDK by how much, considering that Republicans are voting by mail much more than in 2020, and Democrats are voting more in person now.