California 2024 Presidential Results

[E-Dawg]

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/california
According to the results I'm looking at right now, Harris is only leading California 57.4%-40.0% with 54% of the vote in. Is this expected to improve for Harris, or did we just get the best Republican performances in California since 2004? And Trump is even ahead in Orange County right now 49.6%-47.8% with 68% of the vote in. Trump's also ahead in other Biden counties, including multiple in the Central Valley, Butte, Inyo, and San Bernardino. And the percentage for Trump so far has only gotten better and better as more votes have been reported, and the deep blue counties don't actually seem to be lagging behind the state in reporting at all (LA County is at 63% reporting, and the Harris margin there is just 63.0%-34.2%).

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Inyo was always a weird Biden flip imo. I’m also unsure of what ballots have been reported. The Central Valley going red tracks with gains by Trump among Hispanic voters.

[BaldEagle1991]

Inyo was always a weird Biden flip imo. I’m also unsure of what ballots have been reported. The Central Valley going red tracks with gains by Trump among Hispanic voters.

Also the Vietnamese and Filipinos in California I heard are helping to flip the state right this time too

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Inyo was always a weird Biden flip imo. I’m also unsure of what ballots have been reported. The Central Valley going red tracks with gains by Trump among Hispanic voters.

Also the Vietnamese and Filipinos in California I heard are helping to flip the state right this time too

Let's wait until all the votes are in, right now NYT has CA at 57-40. Very curious what Milpitas and Long Beach will look like when everything's said and done.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/politics/democrats-2020-election.html.

A review of the 2020 election, conducted by several prominent Democratic advocacy groups, has concluded that the party is at risk of losing ground with Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters unless it does a better job presenting an economic agenda and countering Republican efforts to spread misinformation and tie all Democratic candidates to the far left.

The 73-page report, obtained by The New York Times, was assembled at the behest of three major Democratic interest groups: Third Way, a centrist think tank, and the Collective PAC and the Latino Victory Fund, which promote Black and Hispanic candidates. It appears to be the most thorough act of self-criticism carried out by Democrats or Republicans after the last campaign.

The document is all the more striking because it is addressed to a victorious party: Despite their successes, Democrats had hoped to achieve more robust control of both chambers of Congress, rather than the ultra-precarious margins they enjoy.

Three prominent Democratic groups, Third Way, the Collective PAC and the Latino Victory Fund, conducted a review of the 2020 election.

READ DOCUMENT 73 PAGES

In part, the study found, Democrats fell short of their aspirations because many House and Senate candidates failed to match Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s support with voters of color who loathed Mr. Trump but distrusted the Democratic Party as a whole. Those constituencies included Hispanic voters in Florida and Texas, Vietnamese American and Filipino American voters in California, and Black voters in North Carolina.

Overall, the report warns, Democrats in 2020 lacked a core argument about the economy and recovering from the coronavirus pandemic — one that might have helped candidates repel Republican claims that they wanted to “keep the economy shut down,” or worse. The party “leaned too heavily on ‘anti-Trump’ rhetoric,” the report concludes.

[oldtimer]

If Trump is at 45% with Hispanics nationally, of course California will be closer.

[BaldEagle1991]

Inyo was always a weird Biden flip imo. I’m also unsure of what ballots have been reported. The Central Valley going red tracks with gains by Trump among Hispanic voters.

Also the Vietnamese and Filipinos in California I heard are helping to flip the state right this time too

Let's wait until all the votes are in, right now NYT has CA at 57-40. Very curious what Milpitas and Long Beach will look like when everything's said and done.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/politics/democrats-2020-election.html.

A review of the 2020 election, conducted by several prominent Democratic advocacy groups, has concluded that the party is at risk of losing ground with Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters unless it does a better job presenting an economic agenda and countering Republican efforts to spread misinformation and tie all Democratic candidates to the far left.

The 73-page report, obtained by The New York Times, was assembled at the behest of three major Democratic interest groups: Third Way, a centrist think tank, and the Collective PAC and the Latino Victory Fund, which promote Black and Hispanic candidates. It appears to be the most thorough act of self-criticism carried out by Democrats or Republicans after the last campaign.

The document is all the more striking because it is addressed to a victorious party: Despite their successes, Democrats had hoped to achieve more robust control of both chambers of Congress, rather than the ultra-precarious margins they enjoy.

Three prominent Democratic groups, Third Way, the Collective PAC and the Latino Victory Fund, conducted a review of the 2020 election.

READ DOCUMENT 73 PAGES

In part, the study found, Democrats fell short of their aspirations because many House and Senate candidates failed to match Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s support with voters of color who loathed Mr. Trump but distrusted the Democratic Party as a whole. Those constituencies included Hispanic voters in Florida and Texas, Vietnamese American and Filipino American voters in California, and Black voters in North Carolina.

Overall, the report warns, Democrats in 2020 lacked a core argument about the economy and recovering from the coronavirus pandemic — one that might have helped candidates repel Republican claims that they wanted to “keep the economy shut down,” or worse. The party “leaned too heavily on ‘anti-Trump’ rhetoric,” the report concludes.

That analysis was a freakin’ oracle that beat out Allan Litchman, Nate Silver, and Ann Seltzer.

[E-Dawg]

Current Status:
Riverside now also has a Trump lead on top of the counties I already mentioned. Any idea when we will have more significant vote dumps from California?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I wouldn't bet on it. If Trump was able to make insane gains in FL, TX, NY, and IL then it's probably transfered to California as well.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Didn't Schiff push Biden out and want Harris and Walz

[E-Dawg]

I wouldn't bet on it. If Trump was able to make insane gains in FL, TX, NY, and IL then it's probably transfered to California as well.

Yeah, it's possible that Trump outruns Brian Dahle's performance against Newsom in 2022! I just don't know anything about the nature of the outstanding vote, so I have no clue what will happen to the margins.

[henster]

Is this the worst home state performance in decades? I think Trump managed to swing NY a bit in 2016. It seems despite Harris being a 2x state AG and a Senator she was quite invisible in the state to voters during her tenure.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Let's wait until all the votes are in, right now NYT has CA at 57-40. Very curious what Milpitas and Long Beach will look like when everything's said and done.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/politics/democrats-2020-election.html.

A review of the 2020 election, conducted by several prominent Democratic advocacy groups, has concluded that the party is at risk of losing ground with Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters unless it does a better job presenting an economic agenda and countering Republican efforts to spread misinformation and tie all Democratic candidates to the far left.

The 73-page report, obtained by The New York Times, was assembled at the behest of three major Democratic interest groups: Third Way, a centrist think tank, and the Collective PAC and the Latino Victory Fund, which promote Black and Hispanic candidates. It appears to be the most thorough act of self-criticism carried out by Democrats or Republicans after the last campaign.

The document is all the more striking because it is addressed to a victorious party: Despite their successes, Democrats had hoped to achieve more robust control of both chambers of Congress, rather than the ultra-precarious margins they enjoy.

Three prominent Democratic groups, Third Way, the Collective PAC and the Latino Victory Fund, conducted a review of the 2020 election.

READ DOCUMENT 73 PAGES

In part, the study found, Democrats fell short of their aspirations because many House and Senate candidates failed to match Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s support with voters of color who loathed Mr. Trump but distrusted the Democratic Party as a whole. Those constituencies included Hispanic voters in Florida and Texas, Vietnamese American and Filipino American voters in California, and Black voters in North Carolina.

Overall, the report warns, Democrats in 2020 lacked a core argument about the economy and recovering from the coronavirus pandemic — one that might have helped candidates repel Republican claims that they wanted to “keep the economy shut down,” or worse. The party “leaned too heavily on ‘anti-Trump’ rhetoric,” the report concludes.

That analysis was a freakin’ oracle that beat out Allan Litchman, Nate Silver, and Ann Seltzer.

It's easier to identify a problem than to implement a working solution to one.


I bet Harris eeks out a win in Orange County and Trump goes below 40% in CA when all's said and done. NYT currently has 5.75 mil to 4.02 mil (57.3-40.1 Harris) with 56% of the vote in, so I'm guessing they're expecting more outstanding ballots than whichever website E-Dawg is referencing.

[E-Dawg]

Is this the worst home state performance in decades? I think Trump managed to swing NY a bit in 2016. It seems despite Harris being a 2x state AG and a Senator she was quite invisible in the state to voters during her tenure.

She's still doing better against Trump in Cali than she did against the Republicans in either of her 2 Attorney General elections lol. If Harris actually manages to perform worse here than Newsom did in 2022, that's pretty astounding. Trump's on track for a clean sweep of the Central Valley minus Sacramento, and can potentially regain Orange, San Bernadino, and Riverside in SoCal. All of that tracks with heavy losses among Hispanics.

[Sbane]

If California does go towards Harris as the votes are counted, think about the implications in the house races. The central valley is going to shift....

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

Inyo was always a weird Biden flip imo.

I think it makes sense. It's at the foot of one of the largest recreation areas in the lower 48 and but is only 4-5 hours from Los Angeles. It's crunchy dirtbag naturebro heaven. The 2020 flip was a quirky COVID/remote work mirage.

I applied for a job to work for the Inyo County government when I graduated from college and by the time they had asked me for an interview I had already taken a different job. But there's a good chance I would have taken that job if they offered even if I was never going to settle down there. Similarly I've met multiple VanLifers who spent several months living in Bishop to rock climb and ski - also since moved out of town.

Grand County Colorado is the same thing. Half ski town half cow country, it got flooded with yuppies and ski instructors or cultural equivalents and Ds did great there in 2020 but those people are probably gone by 2024.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is this the worst home state performance in decades? I think Trump managed to swing NY a bit in 2016. It seems despite Harris being a 2x state AG and a Senator she was quite invisible in the state to voters during her tenure.

Or they just don't remember, as is the endemic problem with all American voters.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Inyo was always a weird Biden flip imo.

I think it makes sense. It's at the foot of one of the largest recreation areas in the lower 48 and but is only 4-5 hours from Los Angeles. It's crunchy dirtbag naturebro heaven. The 2020 flip was a quirky COVID/remote work mirage.

I applied for a job to work for the Inyo County government when I graduated from college and by the time they had asked me for an interview I had already taken a different job. But there's a good chance I would have taken that job if they offered even if I was never going to settle down there. Similarly I've met multiple VanLifers who spent several months living in Bishop to rock climb and ski - also since moved out of town.

Grand County Colorado is the same thing. Half ski town half cow country, it got flooded with yuppies and ski instructors or cultural equivalents and Ds did great there in 2020 but those people are probably gone by 2024.

You know, I should ask some of my coworkers that actually work over there. I think my hang up is just because I’m Californian and have always been, so I’ve been more aware of Inyo and have always thought of it as Republican. But what you say definitely tracks; I know a boyfriend of one of my coworker has a remote tech job and they lived out of their van while my coworker was stationed just to the north in Mono County. I imagine that Bishop is more popular than Mammoth just because it’s that much cheaper and you’re still pretty close to all of the fun east side of the Sierras things.

I was in Bishop a few months ago; it was a nice smallish town (I think if you include the “suburbs,” it’s over 10,000 people), but I guess it just didn’t seem especially crunchy (compared to say Nevada City), but I do know that they have random raves out in the woods, so idk.

[RI]

Any chance Imperial flips?

[Ye We Can]

If anything, I think the margin will shrink up to a certain point as more votes are counted.   

[BaldEagle1991]

If anything, I think the margin will shrink up to a certain point as more votes are counted.   

I am seeing that right now in some places.

Plus I even expect Trump to over perform in Los Angeles. He overperformed in ethnic diverse cities like NYC and Houston. Expect that to be replicated in LA.

[Roll Roons]

If anything, I think the margin will shrink up to a certain point as more votes are counted.   

I am seeing that right now in some places.

Plus I even expect Trump to over perform in Los Angeles. He overperformed in ethnic diverse cities like NYC and Houston. Expect that to be replicated in LA.

Yeah, that's why I don't think Mike Garcia is DOA.

[BaldEagle1991]

I wouldn't bet on it. If Trump was able to make insane gains in FL, TX, NY, and IL then it's probably transfered to California as well.

I would even bet Harris’s lead in Cali will probably shrink to 10-12 pts at the end of it all. Also, California Hispanics will probably get the big swings to the GOP like you see in Miami and RGV.

[E-Dawg]

What is taking California, Arizona, and to a lesser extent Nevada, so long? Vast majority of the states in the country have figured out how to quickly count votes even with mail ins, I don't know why these states take so long. Embarrassing.

[Chief Justice PiT]

If Trump is at 45% with Hispanics nationally, of course California will be closer.

     What's interesting is that Trump's gains with Latinos were far more regionalized in 2020, with big improvements in Miami-Dade and the RGV, but nothing to speak of in California. Him making gains with Californian Latinos is a story that should not be ignored.

[dkxdjy]

What is taking California, Arizona, and to a lesser extent Nevada, so long? Vast majority of the states in the country have figured out how to quickly count votes even with mail ins, I don't know why these states take so long. Embarrassing.

https://twitter.com/GinaRoberts911/status/1853973356120334634

tl;dr These states allow voters to drop mail ballots in drop boxes on election day, and the state has to do identity checks on all of these, which take a long time. Other forms of voting (in person, or early vote by mail) are generally counted much faster. In the states that do finish counting more quickly, voters generally can only vote/drop off mail ballots in person on election day.