County Flips from 2020 to 2024

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Good work. I'm guessing the largest cities in New England to vote for Trump are Bristol, CT, Woonsocket, RI, Fall River, MA?

Thanks! Yep, looks like it, with Fall River being by far the biggest at nearly 100k.

[vileplume]

Anson, NC was on the original list, but omitted on the second list.

Ah thanks, updated the list

[vileplume]

Kamala retook the lead in Broome County, New York so that one can be taken off the flips list.

Also, Talbot County MD only ended up flipping by 6 votes - a contender for closest county in the country this year perhaps.

Ah thanks, moved Broome to the list of Trump '16-Harris '24 counties.

[nclib]

With Mississippi's results in, add Oktibbeha to the flips list.

[E-Dawg]

Trump 2016 / Trump 2020 / Trump 2024:
2,559 Counties (the 2,574 Trump 2020 counties minus the 15 Clinton/Trump Counties)

Clinton 2016 / Biden 2020 / Harris 2024:
424 Counties (the 490 Clinton counties minus the 15 Clinton/Trump/Trump & 51 Clinton/Biden/Trump counties)

Clinton 2016 / Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
51 Counties (the 84 Biden/Trump counties minus the 33 Trump/Biden/Trump counties)

Trump 2016 / Biden 2020 / Trump 2024:
33 Counties

Trump 2016 / Biden 2020 / Harris 2024:
30 Counties

Clinton 2016 / Trump 2020 / Trump 2024:
15 Counties

Clinton 2016 / Trump 2020 / Harris 2024:
None

Trump 2016 / Trump 2020 / Harris 2024:
None

US Election Atlas's Numbers:
2016: 2,622 Trump & 490 Clinton
2020: 2,574 Trump & 538 Biden

My calculation for 2024 using above numbers:
2024: 2,658 Trump & 454 Harris

Sources for above are US Election Atlas & these below 2 posts, please correct anything that is wrong, because something likely is wrong! I counted Lake County CA for Harris since she's currently leading, but it's very possible Trump wins that county in the end.

I think this is the full list, apologies if I've missed anything!

Trump Flips
-Kennebec, ME
-Carrol, NH
-Rockingham, NH
-Sullivan, NH
-Orleans, VT
-Clinton, NY
-Essex, NY
-Rockland, NY
-Nassau, NY
-Passaic, NJ
-Morris, NJ
-Atlantic, NJ
-Gloucester, NJ
-Cumberland, NJ
-Bucks, PA
-Northampton, PA
-Monroe, PA
-Erie, PA
-Kent, MD
-Talbot, MD
-Prince Edward, VA
-Lynchburg, VA
-Surry, VA
-Pasquotank, NC
-Nash, NC
-Anson, NC
-Jasper, SC
-Jefferson, GA
-Washington, GA
-Baldwin, GA
-Duval, FL
-Seminole, FL
-Osceola, FL
-Hillsborough, FL
-Pinellas, FL
-Miami-Dade, FL
-Marengo, AL
-Marshall, MS
-Jasper, MS
-Pike, MS
-Copiah, MS
-Yazoo, MS
-Warren, MS
-Issaquena, MS
-Tensas, LA
-Iberville, LA
-St. James, LA
-Cameron, TX
-Willacy, TX
-Hildago, TX
-Starr, TX
-Duval, TX
-Webb, TX
-Maverick, TX
-Culberson, TX
-Williamson, TX
-Tarrant, TX
-Desha, AR
-Tippecanoe, IN
-Saginaw, MI
-Muskegon, MI
-Sauk, WI
-Carlton, MN
-Nicolett, MN
-Blue Earth, MN
-Winona, MN
-Scott, IA
-Ziebach, SD
-Big Horn, MT
-Blaine, MT
-Albany, WY
-Pueblo, CO
-Socorro, NM
-Maricopa, AZ
-Latah, ID
-Marion, OR
-Riverside, CA
-San Bernadino, CA
-Inyo, CA
-Fresno, CA
-Merced, CA
-Stanislaus, CA
-San Joaquin, CA
-Butte, CA

In Doubt Flip
-Lake, CA (Harris lead of 0.5% with only 32% in, who knows)

Trump '16 - Harris '24 Counties
-Hillsborough, NH
-Kent, RI
-Rensselaer, NY
-Saratoga, NY
-Broome, NY
-Stafford, VA
-James City, VA
-Chesterfield, VA
-Virginia Beach, VA
-Chesapeake, VA
-New Hanover, NC
-Hays, TX
-Montgomery, OH
-McLean, IL
-Kendall, IL
-Kent, MI
-Leelanau, MI
-Door, WI
-Clay, MN
-Johnson, KS
-Shawnee, KS
-Riley, KS
-Garfield, CO
-Grand, UT
-Teton, ID
-Clallam, WA
-Deschutes, OR
Note: They forgot Kent DE & Chaffee CO

The ones that Trump flipped this year that were Trump 2016 - Biden 2020 counties: Kennebec ME, Carroll, Rockingham and Sullivan NH, Essex and Broome NY, Morris and Gloucester NJ, Northampton and Erie PA, Kent and Talbot MD, Lynchburg VA, Nash NC, Duval, Seminole, and Pinellas FL, Warren MS, Williamson and Tarrant TX, Tippecanoe IN, Saginaw MI, Sauk WI, Nicollet, Blue Earth, and Winona MN, Ziebach SD, Blaine MT, Albany WY, Pueblo CO, Maricopa AZ, Marion OR, Inyo and Butte CA. The rest were Hillary-Biden counties and a lot of those flipped.

Correction: Broome NY was NOT flipped by Trump, updated numbers to reflect that

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The Trump-Biden-Harris counties interest me. Why didn't they come back to Trump this time around? Demographic changes? Population growth?

In 2016, Trump's nearly entire margin of victory in Michigan came out of Kent County but now he is losing it by over 5 points despite enjoying an 80k lead statewide.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Trump-Biden-Harris counties interest me. Why didn't they come back to Trump this time around? Demographic changes? Population growth?

In 2016, Trump's nearly entire margin of victory in Michigan came out of Kent County but now he is losing it by over 5 points despite enjoying an 80k lead statewide.

2 main reasons would be my guess:

1. Demographic changes and population growth as you mention. A place like Hays County, TX was never going to be winnable by Trump in 2024 (though he did much better there than I expected). 8 years is a long time - even if the County doesn't have a rapid % growth rate, that's still a lot of time for churn in the electorate (8 years, nearly a decade of people dying off or moving out, and being replaced by younger people and people moving in).

2. Turnout. Turnout jumped a lot 2016-->2020 and then didn't fall by all that much in 2024. I think post-2016 really engaged a lot of previously disengaged people, and in places where those new engaged voters lean left Dems kept most of their gains.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Amending the New England town flips list as ME/MA have certified.

In Mass, late counted votes broke heavily for Harris and ended up taking a few places off the initial flips list.

-West Springfield, MA ended up staying with Harris by 0.4% and is not a Trump flip after all.
-Kingston, MA also went back to Harris, making it a D hold (by 3 votes).
-Granby, MA is now a Harris hold by 9 votes.
-Royalston, MA is no longer a tie - Harris won it by 1 vote. D Hold.

-Sanford, ME is now a Biden-Trump flip to add to the list. Harris was up narrowly in initial returns.
-Searsport, ME ended up not flipping to Trump - full results show it sticking with Harris.

Some extremely tiny places in Maine also flipped, for the record:
-Wyman Unorganized Territory, ME flipped to Trump.
-Highland Plantation, ME flipped to Harris.
-Argyle Unorganized Territory, ME flipped to Harris.
-Cross Lake Unorganized Territory, ME flipped to Trump.
-Glenwood Plantation, ME went from a Trump win in 2020 to a tie in 2024.

[Don't Tread on Me]

The Trump-Biden-Harris counties interest me. Why didn't they come back to Trump this time around? Demographic changes? Population growth?

In 2016, Trump's nearly entire margin of victory in Michigan came out of Kent County but now he is losing it by over 5 points despite enjoying an 80k lead statewide.

2 main reasons would be my guess:

1. Demographic changes and population growth as you mention. A place like Hays County, TX was never going to be winnable by Trump in 2024 (though he did much better there than I expected). 8 years is a long time - even if the County doesn't have a rapid % growth rate, that's still a lot of time for churn in the electorate (8 years, nearly a decade of people dying off or moving out, and being replaced by younger people and people moving in).

2. Turnout. Turnout jumped a lot 2016-->2020 and then didn't fall by all that much in 2024. I think post-2016 really engaged a lot of previously disengaged people, and in places where those new engaged voters lean left Dems kept most of their gains.

Also there are probably some more Reaganite conservatives who gave him a chance but ended up becoming repulsed by him and going the Cheney/Kinzinger route.

[Don't Tread on Me]

Some extremely tiny places in Maine also flipped, for the record:
-Highland Plantation, ME flipped to Harris.
-Argyle Unorganized Territory, ME flipped to Harris.

I wonder if this is purely based on changing demographics? I feel like these communities are small enough that all it takes are a few people moving or dying etc. Not that there aren't any Trump-Harris voters (apparently they made up 4% of the electorate which is only 1% less than the Biden-Trump ones), it just seems surprising from a surface level analytical view because of the lower Dem turnout.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Some extremely tiny places in Maine also flipped, for the record:
-Highland Plantation, ME flipped to Harris.
-Argyle Unorganized Territory, ME flipped to Harris.

I wonder if this is purely based on changing demographics? I feel like these communities are small enough that all it takes are a few people moving or dying etc. Not that there aren't any Trump-Harris voters (apparently they made up 4% of the electorate which is only 1% less than the Biden-Trump ones), it just seems surprising from a surface level analytical view because of the lower Dem turnout.

If you've ever driven all the way up 95 in Maine, Argyle is the section of swamp just north of Bangor/Orono where the ride becomes completely desolate and creepy. With just a handful of people, it wouldn't take much for just a few people moving in/out to change things. Probably different people in these places.

Highland Plt on Dave's atlas has way fewer votes than in previous years (30 something compared to 100+) so that one could be an error.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

It's December, almost a month after Election Day, and thanks to California's extreme incompetency, we are still adding to the list!

Imperial County has officially flipped to Trump.

Now just waiting on Lake, where Harris was up by 12 votes last time I checked...

[CentristRepublican]

It's December, almost a month after Election Day, and thanks to California's extreme incompetency, we are still adding to the list!

Imperial County has officially flipped to Trump.

Now just waiting on Lake, where Harris was up by 12 votes last time I checked...

Apologize on behalf of my state. Absolute tomfoolery over here 

If there's one thing (and there really is only one) to be learned from Florida, it's how efficiently they count their ballots. They were done and dusted on Election Night itself!!

[riverwalk7]

Add Lake, CA to the list.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1864055789079719968

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

This should hopefully be the last change: Harris is now up in Essex County, NY, so that one is not a flip after all.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It seems like the majority of Trump-Biden-Harris counties actually voted Romney in 2012 intrestingly enough, whereas Trump-Biden-Trump counties are more evenly split on their 2012 outcome.