County Flips from 2020 to 2024

[nclib]

If you count the leaders in the slow-counting states, here are:

AZ: Maricopa
CA: Butte, San Joaquin*, Stanislaus, Merced, Fresno, Inyo, San Bernardino, Riverside*
CO: Pueblo
ID: Latah
NV: Washoe*
OR: Marion

*Less than 1%

[Don't Tread on Me]

I'm still amazed there wasn't a Trump-Harris county. Even those on the opposite end of a landslide like Goldwater & McGovern were able to flip at least a few.

[super6646]

I'm still amazed there wasn't a Trump-Harris county. Even those on the opposite end of a landslide like Goldwater & McGovern were able to flip at least a few.

Goldwater isn’t surprising at all. McGovern a little more so, but I wouldn’t be surprised if most of those county flips were in South Dakota

[ottermax]

I'm still amazed there wasn't a Trump-Harris county. Even those on the opposite end of a landslide like Goldwater & McGovern were able to flip at least a few.

Goldwater isn’t surprising at all. McGovern a little more so, but I wouldn’t be surprised if most of those county flips were in South Dakota

In some ways the nationalization of this election feels like the end of American politics as we've known it. For over two centuries regionalism drove most of our politics and today it feels like the saying "all politics is local" has been thrown to the dustbin of history. I hope this is just an aberration but I fear that we've entered a new era where localism is dead, and catchy gotcha trends from our digital devices drive all political discourse for the worse.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Winnebago, IL has flipped back into the Harris column, so not a flip after all.

[nclib]

Winnebago, IL is still showing a Trump win. But Washoe, NV is now for Harris. Anything else change since the day after the election?

[RI]

Winnebago, IL is still showing a Trump win. But Washoe, NV is now for Harris. Anything else change since the day after the election?

Dave hasn't included results for Rockford yet.

[vileplume]

I think this is the full list, apologies if I've missed anything!

Trump Flips
-Kennebec, ME
-Carrol, NH
-Rockingham, NH
-Sullivan, NH
-Orleans, VT
-Clinton, NY
-Essex, NY
-Rockland, NY
-Nassau, NY
-Passaic, NJ
-Morris, NJ
-Atlantic, NJ
-Gloucester, NJ
-Cumberland, NJ
-Bucks, PA
-Northampton, PA
-Monroe, PA
-Erie, PA
-Kent, MD
-Talbot, MD
-Prince Edward, VA
-Lynchburg, VA
-Surry, VA
-Pasquotank, NC
-Nash, NC
-Anson, NC
-Jasper, SC
-Jefferson, GA
-Washington, GA
-Baldwin, GA
-Duval, FL
-Seminole, FL
-Osceola, FL
-Hillsborough, FL
-Pinellas, FL
-Miami-Dade, FL
-Marengo, AL
-Marshall, MS
-Jasper, MS
-Pike, MS
-Copiah, MS
-Yazoo, MS
-Warren, MS
-Issaquena, MS
-Tensas, LA
-Iberville, LA
-St. James, LA
-Cameron, TX
-Willacy, TX
-Hildago, TX
-Starr, TX
-Duval, TX
-Webb, TX
-Maverick, TX
-Culberson, TX
-Williamson, TX
-Tarrant, TX
-Desha, AR
-Tippecanoe, IN
-Saginaw, MI
-Muskegon, MI
-Sauk, WI
-Carlton, MN
-Nicolett, MN
-Blue Earth, MN
-Winona, MN
-Scott, IA
-Ziebach, SD
-Big Horn, MT
-Blaine, MT
-Albany, WY
-Pueblo, CO
-Socorro, NM
-Maricopa, AZ
-Latah, ID
-Marion, OR
-Riverside, CA
-San Bernadino, CA
-Inyo, CA
-Fresno, CA
-Merced, CA
-Stanislaus, CA
-San Joaquin, CA
-Butte, CA

In Doubt Flip
-Lake, CA (Harris lead of 0.5% with only 32% in, who knows)

Trump '16 - Harris '24 Counties
-Hillsborough, NH
-Kent, RI
-Rensselaer, NY
-Saratoga, NY
-Broome, NY
-Stafford, VA
-James City, VA
-Chesterfield, VA
-Virginia Beach, VA
-Chesapeake, VA
-New Hanover, NC
-Hays, TX
-Montgomery, OH
-McLean, IL
-Kendall, IL
-Kent, MI
-Leelanau, MI
-Door, WI
-Clay, MN
-Johnson, KS
-Shawnee, KS
-Riley, KS
-Garfield, CO
-Grand, UT
-Teton, ID
-Clallam, WA
-Deschutes, OR

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Northwest Hills Regional Council of Governments, CT was a Biden 2020 - Trump 2024 flip

[E-Dawg]

I think this is the full list, apologies if I've missed anything!

Trump Flips
-Kennebec, ME
-Carrol, NH
-Rockingham, NH
-Sullivan, NH
-Orleans, VT
-Clinton, NY
-Essex, NY
-Broome, NY
-Rockland, NY
-Nassau, NY
-Passaic, NJ
-Morris, NJ
-Atlantic, NJ
-Gloucester, NJ
-Cumberland, NJ
-Bucks, PA
-Northampton, PA
-Monroe, PA
-Erie, PA
-Kent, MD
-Talbot, MD
-Prince Edward, VA
-Lynchburg, VA
-Surry, VA
-Pasquotank, NC
-Nash, NC
-Jasper, SC
-Jefferson, GA
-Washington, GA
-Baldwin, GA
-Duval, FL
-Seminole, FL
-Osceola, FL
-Hillsborough, FL
-Pinellas, FL
-Miami-Dade, FL
-Marengo, AL
-Marshall, MS
-Jasper, MS
-Pike, MS
-Copiah, MS
-Yazoo, MS
-Warren, MS
-Issaquena, MS
-Tensas, LA
-Iberville, LA
-St. James, LA
-Cameron, TX
-Willacy, TX
-Hildago, TX
-Starr, TX
-Duval, TX
-Webb, TX
-Maverick, TX
-Culberson, TX
-Williamson, TX
-Tarrant, TX
-Desha, AR
-Tippecanoe, IN
-Saginaw, MI
-Muskegon, MI
-Sauk, WI
-Carlton, MN
-Nicolett, MN
-Blue Earth, MN
-Winona, MN
-Scott, IA
-Ziebach, SD
-Big Horn, MT
-Blaine, MT
-Albany, WY
-Pueblo, CO
-Socorro, NM
-Maricopa, AZ
-Latah, ID
-Marion, OR
-Riverside, CA
-San Bernadino, CA
-Inyo, CA
-Fresno, CA
-Merced, CA
-Stanislaus, CA

In Doubt Flips
-San Joaquin, CA (Trump up by 0.6% with 8% left - I expect it will stay Trump)
-Butte, CA (Trump up 1.5% with 24% left, Harris could regain this)
-Lake, CA (Harris lead of 0.5% with only 32% in, who knows)

Trump '16 - Harris '24 Counties
-Hillsborough, NH
-Kent, RI
-Rensselaer, NY
-Saratoga, NY
-Stafford, VA
-James City, VA
-Chesterfield, VA
-Virginia Beach, VA
-Chesapeake, VA
-New Hanover, NC
-Hays, TX
-Montgomery, OH
-McLean, IL
-Kendall, IL
-Kent, MI
-Leelanau, MI
-Door, WI
-Clay, MN
-Johnson, KS
-Shawnee, KS
-Riley, KS
-Garfield, CO
-Grand, UT
-Teton, ID
-Clallam, WA
-Deschutes, OR

How many of the Trump flips voted for Trump in 2016? I'm curious how the Trump 2016/Biden 2020 counties split in 2024.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

What are the longest streaks broken? Probably the ones in south Texas, followed by Carlton, MN.

And I know that Starr used to have the longest Democratic streak, so the longest Democratic streak now is probably the remaining south Texas holdouts, and then plenty of liberal urban counties in 1924.

Brooks, TX did vote for Harris, and it is the only county in the country that has never voted Republican. However it was only established in 1911 and thus has only voted from 1912 onward. Still that 1912-present streak has to currently be the longest in the country.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

I think this is the full list, apologies if I've missed anything!

Trump Flips
-Kennebec, ME
-Carrol, NH
-Rockingham, NH
-Sullivan, NH
-Orleans, VT
-Clinton, NY
-Essex, NY
-Broome, NY
-Rockland, NY
-Nassau, NY
-Passaic, NJ
-Morris, NJ
-Atlantic, NJ
-Gloucester, NJ
-Cumberland, NJ
-Bucks, PA
-Northampton, PA
-Monroe, PA
-Erie, PA
-Kent, MD
-Talbot, MD
-Prince Edward, VA
-Lynchburg, VA
-Surry, VA
-Pasquotank, NC
-Nash, NC
-Jasper, SC
-Jefferson, GA
-Washington, GA
-Baldwin, GA
-Duval, FL
-Seminole, FL
-Osceola, FL
-Hillsborough, FL
-Pinellas, FL
-Miami-Dade, FL
-Marengo, AL
-Marshall, MS
-Jasper, MS
-Pike, MS
-Copiah, MS
-Yazoo, MS
-Warren, MS
-Issaquena, MS
-Tensas, LA
-Iberville, LA
-St. James, LA
-Cameron, TX
-Willacy, TX
-Hildago, TX
-Starr, TX
-Duval, TX
-Webb, TX
-Maverick, TX
-Culberson, TX
-Williamson, TX
-Tarrant, TX
-Desha, AR
-Tippecanoe, IN
-Saginaw, MI
-Muskegon, MI
-Sauk, WI
-Carlton, MN
-Nicolett, MN
-Blue Earth, MN
-Winona, MN
-Scott, IA
-Ziebach, SD
-Big Horn, MT
-Blaine, MT
-Albany, WY
-Pueblo, CO
-Socorro, NM
-Maricopa, AZ
-Latah, ID
-Marion, OR
-Riverside, CA
-San Bernadino, CA
-Inyo, CA
-Fresno, CA
-Merced, CA
-Stanislaus, CA

In Doubt Flips
-San Joaquin, CA (Trump up by 0.6% with 8% left - I expect it will stay Trump)
-Butte, CA (Trump up 1.5% with 24% left, Harris could regain this)
-Lake, CA (Harris lead of 0.5% with only 32% in, who knows)

Trump '16 - Harris '24 Counties
-Hillsborough, NH
-Kent, RI
-Rensselaer, NY
-Saratoga, NY
-Stafford, VA
-James City, VA
-Chesterfield, VA
-Virginia Beach, VA
-Chesapeake, VA
-New Hanover, NC
-Hays, TX
-Montgomery, OH
-McLean, IL
-Kendall, IL
-Kent, MI
-Leelanau, MI
-Door, WI
-Clay, MN
-Johnson, KS
-Shawnee, KS
-Riley, KS
-Garfield, CO
-Grand, UT
-Teton, ID
-Clallam, WA
-Deschutes, OR

How many of the Trump flips voted for Trump in 2016? I'm curious how the Trump 2016/Biden 2020 counties split in 2024.

The ones that Trump flipped this year that were Trump 2016 - Biden 2020 counties: Kennebec ME, Carroll, Rockingham and Sullivan NH, Essex and Broome NY, Morris and Gloucester NJ, Northampton and Erie PA, Kent and Talbot MD, Lynchburg VA, Nash NC, Duval, Seminole, and Pinellas FL, Warren MS, Williamson and Tarrant TX, Tippecanoe IN, Saginaw MI, Sauk WI, Nicollet, Blue Earth, and Winona MN, Ziebach SD, Blaine MT, Albany WY, Pueblo CO, Maricopa AZ, Marion OR, Inyo and Butte CA. The rest were Hillary-Biden counties and a lot of those flipped.

[TheReckoning]

What are the Trump 2016 - Harris 2024 counties?

[TheReckoning]

What are the longest streaks broken? Probably the ones in south Texas, followed by Carlton, MN.

And I know that Starr used to have the longest Democratic streak, so the longest Democratic streak now is probably the remaining south Texas holdouts, and then plenty of liberal urban counties in 1924.

Brooks, TX did vote for Harris, and it is the only county in the country that has never voted Republican. However it was only established in 1911 and thus has only voted from 1912 onward. Still that 1912-present streak has to currently be the longest in the country.

Northampton County, NC, has been D from 1900 onwards.

[RI]

There may be a couple borough flips in Alaska when all is said and done. I believe Trump is currently flipping at least Aleutians West and NW Arctic, but neither is done counting. Anchorage seems to have narrowly stayed with Harris.

[John Lewis Fan]

So not a county result but apparently Harris flipped at least one state senate seat in VA
https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1857577187009872293

[vileplume]

I think this is the full list, apologies if I've missed anything!

Trump Flips
-Kennebec, ME
-Carrol, NH
-Rockingham, NH
-Sullivan, NH
-Orleans, VT
-Clinton, NY
-Essex, NY
-Broome, NY
-Rockland, NY
-Nassau, NY
-Passaic, NJ
-Morris, NJ
-Atlantic, NJ
-Gloucester, NJ
-Cumberland, NJ
-Bucks, PA
-Northampton, PA
-Monroe, PA
-Erie, PA
-Kent, MD
-Talbot, MD
-Prince Edward, VA
-Lynchburg, VA
-Surry, VA
-Pasquotank, NC
-Nash, NC
-Jasper, SC
-Jefferson, GA
-Washington, GA
-Baldwin, GA
-Duval, FL
-Seminole, FL
-Osceola, FL
-Hillsborough, FL
-Pinellas, FL
-Miami-Dade, FL
-Marengo, AL
-Marshall, MS
-Jasper, MS
-Pike, MS
-Copiah, MS
-Yazoo, MS
-Warren, MS
-Issaquena, MS
-Tensas, LA
-Iberville, LA
-St. James, LA
-Cameron, TX
-Willacy, TX
-Hildago, TX
-Starr, TX
-Duval, TX
-Webb, TX
-Maverick, TX
-Culberson, TX
-Williamson, TX
-Tarrant, TX
-Desha, AR
-Tippecanoe, IN
-Saginaw, MI
-Muskegon, MI
-Sauk, WI
-Carlton, MN
-Nicolett, MN
-Blue Earth, MN
-Winona, MN
-Scott, IA
-Ziebach, SD
-Big Horn, MT
-Blaine, MT
-Albany, WY
-Pueblo, CO
-Socorro, NM
-Maricopa, AZ
-Latah, ID
-Marion, OR
-Riverside, CA
-San Bernadino, CA
-Inyo, CA
-Fresno, CA
-Merced, CA
-Stanislaus, CA
-San Joaquin, CA
-Butte, CA

In Doubt Flip
-Lake, CA (Harris lead of 0.5% with only 32% in, who knows)

Trump '16 - Harris '24 Counties
-Hillsborough, NH
-Kent, RI
-Rensselaer, NY
-Saratoga, NY
-Stafford, VA
-James City, VA
-Chesterfield, VA
-Virginia Beach, VA
-Chesapeake, VA
-New Hanover, NC
-Hays, TX
-Montgomery, OH
-McLean, IL
-Kendall, IL
-Kent, MI
-Leelanau, MI
-Door, WI
-Clay, MN
-Johnson, KS
-Shawnee, KS
-Riley, KS
-Garfield, CO
-Grand, UT
-Teton, ID
-Clallam, WA
-Deschutes, OR

With today's vote updates Trump's lead in Butte has expanded to 2.9% (86% in) and only fallen a tad in San Joaquin to 0.5% (95% in) meaning it's pretty likely that both will be flips. The only county that is a real unknown is Lake. I'll also add the Alaska boroughs when clear.

[RI]

Not impossible Trump could flip Imperial County, California. Harris's lead is down to only 1,865 votes with 7,600+ still out.

[E-Dawg]

So not a county result but apparently Harris flipped at least one state senate seat in VA
https://x.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1857577187009872293

There was no redistricting between the two elections, right? Because this seems super odd to me considering how Trump greatly improved in Virginia in 2024

[lfromnj]

Not impossible Trump could flip Imperial County, California. Harris's lead is down to only 1,865 votes with 7,600+ still out.

Yeah weird it hasn’t shifted left since Election Day but actually right .  Only other area in CA like that has been ca 41 which has the Palm Springs stuff .

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Not impossible Trump could flip Imperial County, California. Harris's lead is down to only 1,865 votes with 7,600+ still out.

This would be an INSANE flip. And Schiff is also leading by even less than Harris in both the regular and special Senate elections.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Kamala retook the lead in Broome County, New York so that one can be taken off the flips list.

Also, Talbot County MD only ended up flipping by 6 votes - a contender for closest county in the country this year perhaps.

[nclib]

Anson, NC was on the original list, but omitted on the second list.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Since New England states report by town and counties are pretty irrelevant here, this is the list of New England town flips. Kamala lost some that even Hillary won (but there were also a bunch of Trump - Biden - Harris towns too).

And unlike at the county level, there are actually a few places that Harris flipped!

Biden 2020 to Trump 2024 (Hillary 2016 towns italicized, the rest were Trump - Biden - Trump bellwethers)

Andover, CT
Bristol, CT
Brookfield, CT
Burlington, CT
Derby, CT
Durham, CT
Haddam, CT
Hampton, CT
Montville, CT
New Milford, CT
North Canaan, CT
Suffield, CT
Willington, CT
Woodstock, CT

Athol, MA
Barre, MA
Bridgewater, MA
Fall River, MA
Florida, MA
Granby, MA
Hanover, MA
Hardwick, MA
Kingston, MA
Lynnfield, MA
Millbury, MA
Northbridge, MA
Orange, MA
Pembroke, MA
Plympton, MA
Raynham, MA
Rockland, MA
Rutland, MA
Salisbury, MA
Saugus, MA
Seekonk, MA
Somerset, MA
Sutton, MA
Tewksbury, MA
Townsend, MA
Uxbridge, MA
Webster, MA
West Brookfield, MA
Westfield, MA
Westminster, MA
Westport, MA
West Springfield, MA
Whitman, MA

Alfred, ME
Arundel, ME
Brownfield, ME
Madawaska, ME
Manchester, ME
Mount Vernon, ME
Searsport, ME
Sullivan, ME
Swans Island, ME
Temple, ME
Thorndike, ME
Van Buren, ME
Wallagrass, ME
Westmanland, ME (tie in 2016)

Acworth, NH
Berlin, NH
Claremont, NH
Francestown, NH
Greenfield, NH
Hart's Location, NH
Jaffrey, NH
Langdon, NH
Littleton, NH
Lyndeborough, NH
Nottingham, NH
Pembroke, NH
Shelburne, NH
Springfield, NH
Stratford, NH
Sullivan, NH
Swanzey, NH
Tamworth, NH
Temple, NH

Richmond, RI
West Warwick, RI
Woonsocket, RI

Alburgh, VT
Castleton, VT
Enosburg, VT
Jay, VT
Lyndon, VT
Newark, VT
Pittsford, VT
Poultney, VT
Pownal, VT
Ryegate, VT
Swanton, VT
Tinmouth, VT
West Haven, VT (tie in 2016)

Biden 2020 to Tie 2024 (Hillary 2016 towns italicized)

Royalston, MA
Seboeis Plantation, ME
Dixville Township, NH
Lemington, VT

Tie 2020 to Trump 2024 (Hillary 2016 towns italicized)

St. Francis, ME
The Forks Plantation, ME
Freedom, NH
Ira, VT

Trump 2020 to Tie 2024

Hebron, NH - unknown when last voted D, confirmed R since 1956

Trump 2020 to Harris 2024

Warren, CT - last voted D in 2008
Beaver Cove, ME - unknown when last voted D
Brooks, ME - last voted D in 2008 - appears to be an error
Stoneham, ME - last voted D in 2012
Wolfeboro, NH - unknown when last voted D, possibly never

Some sources are showing Waite, ME as a Harris flip but I think that is an error. Chester, ME voting for Jill Stein is definitely an error.

[nclib]

Good work. I'm guessing the largest cities in New England to vote for Trump are Bristol, CT, Woonsocket, RI, Fall River, MA?