County Flips from 2020 to 2024

[E-Dawg]

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?admin1=53&admin2=53049&election-data-id=2024-PG&selected-election-data-id=2024-PG-WA&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
Pacific County, WA, which voted for Trump in 2016 & 2020, is currently at 49.3%-48.2% for Harris, with 73% reporting. This could potentially be the only Trump-Harris county in the entire country.

[WMS]

I remember when Colfax County, NM, was the bellwether NM county. Now it’s Socorro County. And while Sandoval County has been swingy before - W won it twice - Guadalupe and Cibola Counties are more surprising, although they loved them some Gary Johnson in 2016. But all of this is evidence for Trump appealing considerably to Hispanic males.

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?admin1=53&admin2=53049&election-data-id=2024-PG&selected-election-data-id=2024-PG-WA&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
Pacific County, WA, which voted for Trump in 2016 & 2020, is currently at 49.3%-48.2% for Harris, with 73% reporting. This could potentially be the only Trump-Harris county in the entire country.

Genuinely funny flip. Rural county with a big sand bar peninsula with second homes so lots of beach front property. Whole county shifted D in 2020 but the whole peninsula was already Biden majority territory by then.

[vileplume]

Not counties but it looks like a few New England towns are currently showing as D flips/

-Warren, CT (she leads by 23 votes with 5% outstanding)
-Wolfeboro, NH (she only leads by 4 votes with 1% outstanding)
-Wentworth's Location. NH (tiny)

Are ones I could find. More flipped the other way though.

[E-Dawg]

Any idea what the best popular vote bellwether county is now? I wouldn't be surprised if there are counties that went GOP from 1980-1988, then Democratic every election after except for 2004 & 2024.

[Tekken_Guy]

Deer Lodge MT almost flipped.

I'm shocked it didn't honestly, it's been trending away for a while. The Senate race may have stopped it from flipping, but it's definitely gone in 2028 barring a big D landslide.

I think Sherrod Brown likely saved Montgomery County from flipping.

[E-Dawg]

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?admin1=53&admin2=53049&election-data-id=2024-PG&selected-election-data-id=2024-PG-WA&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
Pacific County, WA, which voted for Trump in 2016 & 2020, is currently at 49.3%-48.2% for Harris, with 73% reporting. This could potentially be the only Trump-Harris county in the entire country.

Genuinely funny flip. Rural county with a big sand bar peninsula with second homes so lots of beach front property. Whole county shifted D in 2020 but the whole peninsula was already Biden majority territory by then.

And ironically Trump was the only Republican to win it since 1952, so you'd think he'd be able to hold onto it this time. But we'll see! Any other Trump 2020 counties have any chance of going for Harris? There do appear to be several Trump 2016/Biden 2020/Harris 2024 counties at least.

[John Lewis Fan]

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?admin1=53&admin2=53049&election-data-id=2024-PG&selected-election-data-id=2024-PG-WA&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
Pacific County, WA, which voted for Trump in 2016 & 2020, is currently at 49.3%-48.2% for Harris, with 73% reporting. This could potentially be the only Trump-Harris county in the entire country.

Genuinely funny flip. Rural county with a big sand bar peninsula with second homes so lots of beach front property. Whole county shifted D in 2020 but the whole peninsula was already Biden majority territory by then.

And ironically Trump was the only Republican to win it since 1952, so you'd think he'd be able to hold onto it this time. But we'll see! Any other Trump 2020 counties have any chance of going for Harris? There do appear to be several Trump 2016/Biden 2020/Harris 2024 counties at least.

Looks like
Hays TX
Stafford County VA
Virginia Beach
James City VA
Frederick MD
Sullivan NH
Hillsborough NH
Kent County RI and DE
Riley KS
Johnson KS
Clay County MN
Montgomery OH
are probably a few others
are TRUMP-BIDEN-HARRIS counties

[John Lewis Fan]

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?admin1=53&admin2=53049&election-data-id=2024-PG&selected-election-data-id=2024-PG-WA&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
Pacific County, WA, which voted for Trump in 2016 & 2020, is currently at 49.3%-48.2% for Harris, with 73% reporting. This could potentially be the only Trump-Harris county in the entire country.

Pacific County is now up to 83% reporting and Harris has a 49.5-48.4 lead.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-washington.html

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Do we think Orange County, CA is likely to ultimately flip back to Harris?  Trump still has a one-point lead there.

[Thunder98]

Latah County, ID flipped from Biden. Voted for Trump by 8 and last voted GOP in 2004

[E-Dawg]

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?admin1=53&admin2=53049&election-data-id=2024-PG&selected-election-data-id=2024-PG-WA&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
Pacific County, WA, which voted for Trump in 2016 & 2020, is currently at 49.3%-48.2% for Harris, with 73% reporting. This could potentially be the only Trump-Harris county in the entire country.

Pacific County is now up to 83% reporting and Harris has a 49.5-48.4 lead.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-washington.html

Weird, it appears that for Washington, New York Times & Fox News have more updated results than CNN does

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Latah County, ID flipped from Biden. Voted for Trump by 8 and last voted GOP in 2004

Oof! What happened here? Gen Z college students shifting right?

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Grand County, CO might end up flipping to Harris - it's not all in yet apparently.

I do feel comfortable adding Maricopa, AZ to the confirmed flip list.

Washoe, NV seems like a flip too but not sure if I can call it yet.

Forgot to add St. Clair, IL to the narrow Harris holds list.

I would be surprised if Pacific, WA flips given it's a working class lumber type area that only flipped to Republicans with Trump.

There's also Alaska - no idea what's happening there or if Harris randomly flipped North Slope Borough or something.

Verdict is still out on California, but hard to see at least Fresno, Stanislaus, Merced not flipping. Other possibilities: Butte, Inyo, Nevada, San Bernardino, Riverside, Orange, Imperial, Lake, San Joaquin

[nclib]

Add Sullivan and Carroll, NH to the original list.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Add Sullivan and Carroll, NH to the original list.

Thanks, hadn't seen those. Although they make sense if Rockingham flipped.

Kamala really sh**t the bed in New Hampshire.

Kennebec, ME is another confirmed flip.

[Thunder98]

Latah County, ID flipped from Biden. Voted for Trump by 8 and last voted GOP in 2004

Oof! What happened here? Gen Z college students shifting right?

Most likely that and maybe transplants moving in as well

[Iowa+3]

If there are no Trump to Harris flips, this will be the first election since 1932(!) where all the county flips went one way! 1932! Even all of the landslide elections since then had counties flipping both ways!

She is coming close to flipping Grand, CO and Ontario, NY, about a point away from each, but that's the closest I'm seeing any Trump 2020 county.

For Ontario, she's down by 1.4% with 5% out. I don't see it.

[E-Dawg]

If there are no Trump to Harris flips, this will be the first election since 1932(!) where all the county flips went one way! 1932! Even all of the landslide elections since then had counties flipping both ways!

She is coming close to flipping Grand, CO and Ontario, NY, about a point away from each, but that's the closest I'm seeing any Trump 2020 county.

For Ontario, she's down by 1.4% with 5% out. I don't see it.

And in Grand CO, she's down 1.0% with 5% out. Pacific County looks to be the only likely Trump 2020-Harris 2024 county. Harris is up by 1.1% with only 17% of the vote outstanding. But I have no clue about the nature of the outstanding vote. It would be pretty cool for that one county alone to buck the Trump trend, but it also would be pretty cool for this to be the first election since 1932 with no countervailing county flips. So result will be interesting either way.

[RI]

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?admin1=53&admin2=53049&election-data-id=2024-PG&selected-election-data-id=2024-PG-WA&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
Pacific County, WA, which voted for Trump in 2016 & 2020, is currently at 49.3%-48.2% for Harris, with 73% reporting. This could potentially be the only Trump-Harris county in the entire country.

Pacific County is now up to 83% reporting and Harris has a 49.5-48.4 lead.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-washington.html

Trump has taken the lead in Pacific.

[nclib]

What are the longest streaks broken? Probably the ones in south Texas, followed by Carlton, MN.

And I know that Starr used to have the longest Democratic streak, so the longest Democratic streak now is probably the remaining south Texas holdouts, and then plenty of liberal urban counties in 1924.

[E-Dawg]

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?admin1=53&admin2=53049&election-data-id=2024-PG&selected-election-data-id=2024-PG-WA&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
Pacific County, WA, which voted for Trump in 2016 & 2020, is currently at 49.3%-48.2% for Harris, with 73% reporting. This could potentially be the only Trump-Harris county in the entire country.

Pacific County is now up to 83% reporting and Harris has a 49.5-48.4 lead.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-washington.html

Trump has taken the lead in Pacific.

Actually, it looks like Pacific County going Harris could be back on the table

Trump is currently up by just 26 votes in Pacific County, WA, with 15% of the vote left to be counted. It may be the only county flip to Harris in the whole country.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?admin1=53&admin2=53049&election-data-id=2024-PG&selected-election-data-id=2024-PG-WA&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
Pacific County, WA, which voted for Trump in 2016 & 2020, is currently at 49.3%-48.2% for Harris, with 73% reporting. This could potentially be the only Trump-Harris county in the entire country.

Pacific County is now up to 83% reporting and Harris has a 49.5-48.4 lead.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-washington.html

Trump has taken the lead in Pacific.

Actually, it looks like Pacific County going Harris could be back on the table

Trump is currently up by just 26 votes in Pacific County, WA, with 15% of the vote left to be counted. It may be the only county flip to Harris in the whole country.

This is a longer shot but I wonder if Harris has any shot at flipping Tillamook County, OR? Trump's currently lead there is relatively small, still ~15% of the vote left, and demographically similar Lincoln County to it's south ended up having a 2.1% leftshift from 2020 - Trump won Tillamook by 1.7% in 2020.

If I had to guess I'd lean no, but it is another longshot possibility if the remaining vote is more Harris favorable for some reason.

[ottermax]

Latah County, ID flipped from Biden. Voted for Trump by 8 and last voted GOP in 2004

Oof! What happened here? Gen Z college students shifting right?

Most likely that and maybe transplants moving in as well

The murders at U of I probably did not help with young voters here either.

[NOVA Green]

Marion County Oregon looks like a possible flip...

Only reason that I'm hedging on this one is supposedly only 71% is in on DDHQ.

Don't know how they get at these numbers, but if they are trying to base it off of 2020 numbers might well fit the narrative of many Latinos and younger voters not voting instead of voting Trump.

Right now we got something like 121.2k votes counted versus 165.4k in '20.

Trump only lost Marion by 1.8k in '20 and is currently up 3.3k.

I am having an extremely difficult time envisioning that there are an additional 40k votes outstanding (despite pop growth), considering there do not appear to be any ballot counting issues going on here.

Suspect that there was a dramatic drop-off of voter participation among both younger voters and Latino voters, along with some random swings in PUB leaning Keizer....