County Flips from 2020 to 2024

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Here is a list of counties that have flipped from 2020 to 2024. Please correct me if any are wrong or if I'm missing any.

Only listing fully reported counties for now unless it's an obvious flip.

Biden 2020 to Trump 2024

Marengo, AL
Desha, AR
Duval, FL
Hillsborough, FL
Miami-Dade, FL
Osceola, FL
Pinellas, FL
Seminole, FL
Baldwin, GA
Jefferson, GA
Washington, GA
Winnebago, IL
Tippecanoe, IN
Scott, IA
Shawnee, KS
Iberville, LA
St. James, LA
Tensas, LA
Kent, MD
Talbot, MD
Bristol, MA
Muskegon, MI
Saginaw, MI
Blue Earth, MN
Carlton, MN
Nicollet, MN
Winona, MN
Copiah, MS
Issaquena, MS
Jasper, MS
Marshall, MS
Pike, MS
Warren, MS
Yazoo, MS
Big Horn, MT
Rockingham, NH
Atlantic, NJ
Cumberland, NJ
Gloucester, NJ
Passaic, NJ
Socorro, NM
Broome, NY
Clinton, NY
Essex, NY
Nassau, NY
Rockland, NY
Anson, NC
Nash, NC
Pasquotank, NC
Bucks, PA
Erie, PA
Monroe, PA
Northampton, PA
Jasper, SC
Ziebach, SD
Cameron, TX
Culberson, TX
Duval, TX
Hidalgo, TX
Maverick, TX
Starr, TX
Tarrant, TX
Webb, TX
Willacy, TX
Williamson, TX
Orleans, VT
Lynchburg, VA
Prince Edward, VA
Surry, VA
Sauk, WI
Albany, WY

Trump 2020 to Harris 2024

Literally nowhere lmfao

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

What's the new bellwether if it's not Clallam?

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

What's the new bellwether if it's not Clallam?

Ziebach? Blaine MT maybe? (I didn't put that one on the list yet because it's not done yet).

Kent DE would be another good one but it looks like Harris held it by a hair.

[Rand]

I just wanted Oklahoma to flip. I haven’t lived there in years, but it would have been asthetically pleasing to see a blue square in the middle of the state.

[E-Dawg]

If there are no Trump to Harris flips, this will be the first election since 1932(!) where all the county flips went one way! 1932! Even all of the landslide elections since then had counties flipping both ways!

[Bismarck]

So far it looks like Orange, CA will flip too. Maybe the inland empire counties too although all three are close.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Here are some counties that Harris won but only barely clung on to (4 points or less). Some of these I am honestly surprised didn't flip based on how the night went:

Russell, AL
Crittenden, AR
St. Francis, AR
Lee, AR
Chicot, AR
Kent, DE
Palm Beach, FL
Warren, GA
Sumter, GA
Terrell, GA
Jackson, IL
Peoria, IL
Will, IL (less than 1-point win for Harris!!!)
DeKalb, IL
Kendall, IL
St. Joseph, IN
Black Hawk, IA
Riley, KS
St. Helena, LA
Genesee, MI
Clay, MN
Lake, MN
Oktibbeha, MS
Deer Lodge, MT
Bergen, NJ
Cibola, NM
Guadalupe, NM
Sandoval, NM
Rensselaer, NY
New Hanover, NC
Wilson, NC
Montgomery, OH
Lehigh, PA
Kent, RI
Marlboro, SC
Haywood, TN
Fort Bend, TX (1 point win for Harris)
Dimmit, TX
Franklin, VT
Stafford, VA
Montgomery, VA
Radford, VA
Sussex, VA
Chesapeake, VA
Virginia Beach, VA
Door, WI
Portage, WI
Green, WI

[Rubensim]

Alright how the hell did she do this badly

[Storr]

If there are no Trump to Harris flips, this will be the first election since 1932(!) where all the county flips went one way! 1932! Even all of the landslide elections since then had counties flipping both ways!

If this holds, that'll be wild.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

If there are no Trump to Harris flips, this will be the first election since 1932(!) where all the county flips went one way! 1932! Even all of the landslide elections since then had counties flipping both ways!

She is coming close to flipping Grand, CO and Ontario, NY, about a point away from each, but that's the closest I'm seeing any Trump 2020 county.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Retracting my call in Bristol, MA. It now appears Harris may have won it by 13 votes.

[Roll Roons]

Morris, NJ was a flip.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I just wanted Oklahoma to flip. I haven’t lived there in years, but it would have been asthetically pleasing to see a blue square in the middle of the state.

More generally it was really disappointing to see so many of these counties many assumed were defacto Harris flips to fall short, even as some swung left from 2020 (Grand CO, Dallas IA, Oklahoma OK, Grand Traverse MI, ect).

I think one thing that makes this election really disappointing for Dems is relative to 2020, there are very few places Harris did well. Like at least in 2008 and 2016, there were parts of the Country where the losing party saw meaningful improvement and long term opportunity. All we really got I guess was parts of metro Atlanta helping to keep GA relatively close?

[Roll Roons]

Possibly an error, but NYT has Somerset, NJ as a flip. This is absolutely wild.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Possibly an error, but NYT has Somerset, NJ as a flip. This is absolutely wild.

New Jersey is now a swing state.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Door, WI's bellwether status has ended.

[Storr]

Door, WI's bellwether status has ended.

You could say...the door has been closed.



(Sorry, I had to. I'm in cope through humor mode.)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Door, WI's bellwether status has ended.

Seems to be a theme of a lot of the rural touristy/liberal tranplant types of counties shifting right despite the national picture. Cherry coast in MI, parts of western NC, and CO western slope are the other best examples.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Also this ends Carlton County's since 1932 onward D streak.

[lfromnj]

Is Lake county MN getting some tourism boost? Its actually whiter and more rural than Carlton.

[kwabbit]

Retracting my call in Bristol, MA. It now appears Harris may have won it by 13 votes.

I'm pretty sure the result in Acushnet is a tabulation error anyway and Harris won by 2,000 votes. I don't think a random town in Massachusetts would have 130% turnout of 2020 and swing 50 points. It looks like Trump was given the total number of votes.

[CookieDamage]

Possibly an error, but NYT has Somerset, NJ as a flip. This is absolutely wild.

This is stunning. A educated and wealthy suburb that gave Biden 60% now won by Trump wtf

[lfromnj]

Deer Lodge MT almost flipped.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Deer Lodge MT almost flipped.

I'm shocked it didn't honestly, it's been trending away for a while. The Senate race may have stopped it from flipping, but it's definitely gone in 2028 barring a big D landslide.

[cg41386]

Possibly an error, but NYT has Somerset, NJ as a flip. This is absolutely wild.

This is stunning. A educated and wealthy suburb that gave Biden 60% now won by Trump wtf

It was an error. Harris +12ish.