Predict 2026 retirements

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Cassidy might change his mind and retire too. He voted to convict Trump in 2021 and Louisiana is a deep red state (unlike Maine) and it seems unlikely Trump will forgive him. The big question is how does the jungle primary go if he does run. If Dems run a candidate can they get enough turnout to block his opponent out for second place, or do they just let it be R vs R for the runoff and come behind him then?

There's no jungle primary anymore in the Senate.

Oh interesting, so its just for governor now?

[Compuzled_One]

Cassidy might change his mind and retire too. He voted to convict Trump in 2021 and Louisiana is a deep red state (unlike Maine) and it seems unlikely Trump will forgive him. The big question is how does the jungle primary go if he does run. If Dems run a candidate can they get enough turnout to block his opponent out for second place, or do they just let it be R vs R for the runoff and come behind him then?

There's no jungle primary anymore in the Senate.

Oh interesting, so its just for governor now?

I think so? Maybe the House to.

[Horus]

I'll do House Dems - Hank Johnson (this is all but confirmed), Mike Thompson, Zoe Lofgren, Raul Grijalva, Lloyd Doggett, Gwen Moore, Nydia Velazquez, Jim Costa, Paul Tonko, Joe Courtney, Steny Hoyer, Bobby Scott, Richard Neal

[Tekken_Guy]

For the GOP, I could see the following on the way out:
-John Carter
-Virginia Foxx
-Randy Weber
-Neal Dunn
-Gus Bilirakis
-Steve Womack
-Tom Cole
-Bob Latta
-Tim Walberg
-Mike Simpson
-Dan Newhouse
-Ken Calvert
-Paul Gosar
-Jim Baird
-Victoria Spartz
-Glenn Thompson

[MargieCat]

Another republican that seems to be on his way out is Michael McCaul.

He is not seeking a waiver to continue as chairman on the Foreign Affairs Committee.

I read an article that he is considering a run for governor, but I don't know how that would work seeing as Abbott seems to be running again.

I don't even know if McCaul could win a statewide primary in Texas at this point. A decade ago he probably would have been a shoo-in.

[MargieCat]

With Nadler being challenged by Raskin for his chairmanship/ranking membership on Judiciary, he just decided to allow Raskin to have it.

He knew he was probably set to lose it.

I wonder if he just decides to retire after this term.

[CentristRepublican]

I am only doing the Senate, because it is too difficult to predict House retirements

Republicans

Idaho: Jim Risch ---> Janice McGeachin/Russ Fulcher

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell ---> Daniel Cameron

Maine: Susan Collins ---> Jared Golden/Troy Jackson (Dem Flip)

Texas: John Cornyn ---> Ken Paxton (maybe a Democrat could win this under a Blue Wave)

Democrats

Illinois: Dick Durbin ---> Lauren Underwood

Massachusetts: Ed Markey ---> Ayanna Pressley

(Maybe??) Michigan: Gary Peters ---> Mallory McMorrow (Maybe??)

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen ---> Chris Pappas/Maggie Goodlander

Rhode Island: Jack Reed ---> Seth Magaziner/Gabe Amo

Cameron is damaged goods after losing to Beshear in a not-particularly-close race. He's done.

[MargieCat]

I'll do House Dems - Hank Johnson (this is all but confirmed)

It seems like David Scott may be retiring as well. McBath will very likely run for governor, opening up her seat as well possibly.

There might be a big turnover of Dems in Atlanta.

I'm interested to see who jumps in.

I suppose Keisha Lance Bottoms and Stacey Abrams could end up in congress, if the voters want national figures.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1867720512866332910

[doc gerritcole]

There’s nothing to see, dems need fresh blood and generational turnover, especially when they’ll be in the senate minority

[MargieCat]

Another place to look:

People who lost their bids to becoming committee chairs and ranking members. Or people that were termed out or voluntarily gave up their gavel. Also, people who lose bids to climb up the leadership ladder.

Does Gottheimer or Sherrill retire if they lose their primary to become governor?

I call them "sour grapes retirements."

Cicilline was another one. He wanted Clyburn's position in leadership and spoke out about how there needed to be an LGBTQ member of leadership. Once it became clear he wasn't going to get Clyburn's position, he was out and resigned in the middle of his term.

[New World Man]

After some of these GOP house seats are filled,I could see a few more retirements there. Maybe a tv gig or some role with Trump. Thought I read Luna was interested in that.

[Tekken_Guy]

After some of these GOP house seats are filled,I could see a few more retirements there. Maybe a tv gig or some role with Trump. Thought I read Luna was interested in that.

I think her counterparts in the class of 2020 like MTG and Boebert will be out the door first since they’ll qualify for pension after this term.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1870992600163094936

[Samof94]

Kentucky being an open seat would not surprise me.

[Samof94]

Kentucky being an open seat would not surprise me.

What if Mitch is dead by summer of next year?

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1870992600163094936

Looking forward to him getting replaced by someone 10x worse lol

[2016]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1870992600163094936

Looking forward to him getting replaced by someone 10x worse lol

Yeah, Joe Gruters. He is currently running for CFO of Florida but I could see him switch if Vern Buchanan does indeed retire.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1870992600163094936

Looking forward to him getting replaced by someone 10x worse lol

Yeah, Joe Gruters. He is currently running for CFO of Florida but I could see him switch if Vern Buchanan does indeed retire.

His successor as state party chair, Christian Ziegler, might honestly be even worse. He too is from Sarasota and is a former Buchanan aide. His wife could also be in the mix, she's a Moms for Liberty founder.

Most likely though is his son, James Buchanan.

Note that all his likely successors are from Steube's district. Though with Patronis and Fine also being pretty blatant carpetbaggers in the upcoming specials it doesn't really matter that much.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1870992600163094936

Looking forward to him getting replaced by someone 10x worse lol

Yeah, Joe Gruters. He is currently running for CFO of Florida but I could see him switch if Vern Buchanan does indeed retire.

His successor as state party chair, Christian Ziegler, might honestly be even worse. He too is from Sarasota and is a former Buchanan aide. His wife could also be in the mix, she's a Moms for Liberty founder.

Most likely though is his son, James Buchanan.

Note that all his likely successors are from Steube's district. Though with Patronis and Fine also being pretty blatant carpetbaggers in the upcoming specials it doesn't really matter that much.

God help us if Ziegler or his Wife runs!

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1870992600163094936

Looking forward to him getting replaced by someone 10x worse lol

Yeah, Joe Gruters. He is currently running for CFO of Florida but I could see him switch if Vern Buchanan does indeed retire.

His successor as state party chair, Christian Ziegler, might honestly be even worse. He too is from Sarasota and is a former Buchanan aide. His wife could also be in the mix, she's a Moms for Liberty founder.

Most likely though is his son, James Buchanan.

Note that all his likely successors are from Steube's district. Though with Patronis and Fine also being pretty blatant carpetbaggers in the upcoming specials it doesn't really matter that much.

Ziegler is the guy who got removed as FL GOP chair because he turned out to be a rapist.  It’s not going to be him or his wife.

[CentristRepublican]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1870992600163094936

Looking forward to him getting replaced by someone 10x worse lol

Yeah, Joe Gruters. He is currently running for CFO of Florida but I could see him switch if Vern Buchanan does indeed retire.

His successor as state party chair, Christian Ziegler, might honestly be even worse. He too is from Sarasota and is a former Buchanan aide. His wife could also be in the mix, she's a Moms for Liberty founder.

Most likely though is his son, James Buchanan.

Note that all his likely successors are from Steube's district. Though with Patronis and Fine also being pretty blatant carpetbaggers in the upcoming specials it doesn't really matter that much.

I thought the FLGOP didn't like gays?