Predict 2026 retirements

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/PetrellaReports/status/1856116520776053237
He will be 82 and 30 years is a long time for anyone to be a Senator.

Why is him being in the minority a big thing?

At his age he has zero guarantee he will ever serve in a majority again

[Atlas Force]

I wouldn’t rule out some backbencher pulling a John Delaney by announcing a run for President super early and making the point by not running for re-election in 2026 to focus on that instead.

[Flyersfan232]

McConnell and Pelosi retiring in the same year would be fun.

I suppose Pelosi is better than whatever SF-style progressive (maybe an Squad member) would end up replacing her, but she's too old and her district needs a more proper representation.

Scott Weiner

[rhg2052]

Just for predictions, the average number of House retirements per cycle recently has been about 44 members.

I do wonder if the Pelosi/Clyburn/Hoyer trio all go out together this term. They will be 86/87/86 respectively at the end of next term, and have pretty fully passed the torch to the younger generation of leadership. That being said, with the near-certainty of a Democratic House majority in 2027-29, they may be holding out for one last term in the majority?

Also since I haven't seen anyone else bring it up, Gerry Connolly (VA-11) did announce just after the election that he has been diagnosed with esophageal cancer, so he is unfortunately one to keep an eye out for.

[Atlas Force]

Also since I haven't seen anyone else bring it up, Gerry Connolly (VA-11) did announce just after the election that he has been diagnosed with esophageal cancer, so he is unfortunately one to keep an eye out for.

I didn’t even know that, that’s terrible

[Atlas Force]

Burgess Owens is in his 70s, is pension-eligible, and might get screwed over in mid-decade redistricting.

[Tekken_Guy]

Burgess Owens is in his 70s, is pension-eligible, and might get screwed over in mid-decade redistricting.

Celeste Maloy is probably more endangered. Could easily see her losing to Kennedy in a rural seat while Owens gets a south Salt Lake/north Utah County seat.

[New World Man]

Gosar has Parkinson's I believe.

[Tekken_Guy]

Gosar has Parkinson's I believe.

Congresswoman Kari Lake incoming.

[Zenobiyl]

Gosar has Parkinson's I believe.

Congresswoman Kari Lake incoming.

She’d probably manage to lose that seat too

[MargieCat]

Gosar has Parkinson's I believe.

Congresswoman Kari Lake incoming.

She's not that popular anymore, even with hardcore Trump-supporters.

Despite their worse statewide performances, Mark Finchem or Blake Masters probably would have a better shot than Lake at this point.

Or State Sen Wendy Rogers.

I don't think carpetbagging matters too much in AZ as pretty much everyone in the state is a carpetbagger.

[MarkD]

McConnell, Collins, Durbin, Reed.

[2016]

On the GOP Side
Mitch McConnell has pretty much already said that he will retire at the end of his Term.
Jim Risch is most likely the 2nd Republican Retirement for 2026.

On the Dem Side
As mentioned Durbin is 82
Jeanne Shaheen turns 79 at the end of January (next month). She would be 80 in 2026. And if she does retire I could see Chris Sununu, although he said that he won't run in 2026, reconsidering.

Big Wild Card could be Chuck Grassley in Iowa on the GOP Side. I don't wish this on anyone but he is in the 90ties and I am not sure he will make it to 2028 when is Term is up so we could potentially have 3 Special Elections in 2026 (FL, OH & IA).

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Collins already said she is running

[New World Man]

Gwen Moore has had health problems. She's been in a long time,I wouldn't be shocked if she retired.

[Tekken_Guy]

Gwen Moore has had health problems. She's been in a long time,I wouldn't be shocked if she retired.

I assume we'd get Mandela Barnes in congress then.

[New World Man]

Gwen Moore has had health problems. She's been in a long time,I wouldn't be shocked if she retired.

Not sure. It's a deep bench in that district. Maybe David Crowley,County exec,her son who is on the city council.
I assume we'd get Mandela Barnes in congress then.

[CentristRepublican]

My watch-list for potential retirements (Senate):

Dem: Durban (IL), Peters (MI)*, Merkley (OR)*, Reed (RI), Warner (VA)
Rep: Risch (ID), McConnell (KY), Collins (ME), Shaheen (NH), Rounds (ND)*, Moore Capito (WV)*, Lummis (WY)*

* These are less likely but I think they could happen under the right circumstances

When did Shaheen switch parties?

I also don't see Lummis stepping down after just one term. Nobody does that barring exceptional circumstances - being hated by most of their base, that is (Kyrsten Sinema and her direct predecessor Jeff Flake come to mind, as does Romney from next door UT).

[EastOfEden]

My watch-list for potential retirements (Senate):

Dem: Durban (IL), Peters (MI)*, Merkley (OR)*, Reed (RI), Warner (VA)
Rep: Risch (ID), McConnell (KY), Collins (ME), Shaheen (NH), Rounds (ND)*, Moore Capito (WV)*, Lummis (WY)*

* These are less likely but I think they could happen under the right circumstances

When did Shaheen switch parties?

I also don't see Lummis stepping down after just one term. Nobody does that barring exceptional circumstances - being hated by most of their base, that is (Kyrsten Sinema and her direct predecessor Jeff Flake come to mind, as does Romney from next door UT).

Eh, Romney wasn't really hated by the base. Unpopular, sure, but not hated, and Utah is idiosyncratic. He had a winning coalition here if he wanted it. I think he just wanted to retire. People forget he's 77. He looks a lot younger.

[Flyersfan232]

My watch-list for potential retirements (Senate):

Dem: Durban (IL), Peters (MI)*, Merkley (OR)*, Reed (RI), Warner (VA)
Rep: Risch (ID), McConnell (KY), Collins (ME), Shaheen (NH), Rounds (ND)*, Moore Capito (WV)*, Lummis (WY)*

* These are less likely but I think they could happen under the right circumstances

lummis is only 70 she will go for another term

[CentristRepublican]

My watch-list for potential retirements (Senate):

Dem: Durban (IL), Peters (MI)*, Merkley (OR)*, Reed (RI), Warner (VA)
Rep: Risch (ID), McConnell (KY), Collins (ME), Shaheen (NH), Rounds (ND)*, Moore Capito (WV)*, Lummis (WY)*

* These are less likely but I think they could happen under the right circumstances

When did Shaheen switch parties?

I also don't see Lummis stepping down after just one term. Nobody does that barring exceptional circumstances - being hated by most of their base, that is (Kyrsten Sinema and her direct predecessor Jeff Flake come to mind, as does Romney from next door UT).

Eh, Romney wasn't really hated by the base. Unpopular, sure, but not hated, and Utah is idiosyncratic. He had a winning coalition here if he wanted it. I think he just wanted to retire. People forget he's 77. He looks a lot younger.

Disagree. Even Cox was only renominated by like 10 pts and he was definitely less anethmatic to hardcore Trumpists than Romney, who voted to impeach, was. Plus I’m p sure gubernatorial politics is slightly less polarized than Senatorial.

UT may be one of the least Trumpy red states but the base overall is still quite MAGA.

[Talleyrand]

Unfortunate that Markey is running again at 80. Hopefully Shaheen and Durbin don't emulate him.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Unfortunate that Markey is running again at 80. Hopefully Shaheen and Durbin don't emulate him.

Lol Ds have Alexis Ginnoulias to run in IL , Shaheen is gonna run, Grassley is 90 yrs old and if he can run Shaheen is definitely running

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Cassidy might change his mind and retire too. He voted to convict Trump in 2021 and Louisiana is a deep red state (unlike Maine) and it seems unlikely Trump will forgive him. The big question is how does the jungle primary go if he does run. If Dems run a candidate can they get enough turnout to block his opponent out for second place, or do they just let it be R vs R for the runoff and come behind him then?

[Compuzled_One]

Cassidy might change his mind and retire too. He voted to convict Trump in 2021 and Louisiana is a deep red state (unlike Maine) and it seems unlikely Trump will forgive him. The big question is how does the jungle primary go if he does run. If Dems run a candidate can they get enough turnout to block his opponent out for second place, or do they just let it be R vs R for the runoff and come behind him then?

There's no jungle primary anymore in the Senate.