Predict 2026 retirements

[Atlas Force]

I wonder if Kaptur’s much-closer-than-expected re-election scares her into calling it a career.

[David Hume]

I wonder if Kaptur’s much-closer-than-expected re-election scares her into calling it a career.

OH needs to redistrict in 2026. They may just draw her out since they control the SC now.

[Steve from Lambeth]

I wonder if Kaptur’s much-closer-than-expected re-election scares her into calling it a career.

The only way Marcy Kaptur leaves office before she dies is if she runs for the OH-SEN-2026 special election and loses. Her populist credentials are well-known, someone like Emilia Sykes is absolutely not just going to run for the Senate just four years into their House career, and the rest of the Ohio Democratic bench would more likely than not never win against a high-quality Republican candidate.

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

I wonder if Kaptur’s much-closer-than-expected re-election scares her into calling it a career.

If Kaptur survived this year and there isn't redistricting (a big if) than it's extremely unlikely she'll actually lose re-election in a Trump midterm.

[vbfox]

If anyone is going to retire because of age or medical issues, Durbin (IL) or McConnell (KY) are the most likely. They are both >80 years old by 2026

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Hoping Jack Reed does. We haven't had an open RI US Senate race in 30 years.

[Talleyrand]

I wouldn't be shocked if either Warner or Shaheen called it quits . Risch is also getting up there in age.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Cornyn decided to retire. Shaheen is also getting to the age where she probably only serves one more term if she does run.

[CheapDollarEra?]

McConnell and Pelosi retiring in the same year would be fun.

I suppose Pelosi is better than whatever SF-style progressive (maybe an Squad member) would end up replacing her, but she's too old and her district needs a more proper representation.

[New World Man]

House D's
Pelosi
Clyburn
Hoyer
Danny Davis

House R's
Calvert(if he wins)
Schweikert
Chris Smith
Comer(run for US Senate?)

Senate D's
Durbin
Reed
Coons
Shaheen

Senate R's
McConnell
Risch
Collins
Tillis

[Zedonathin2020]

I am only doing the Senate, because it is too difficult to predict House retirements

Republicans

Idaho: Jim Risch ---> Janice McGeachin/Russ Fulcher

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell ---> Daniel Cameron

Maine: Susan Collins ---> Jared Golden/Troy Jackson (Dem Flip)

Texas: John Cornyn ---> Ken Paxton (maybe a Democrat could win this under a Blue Wave)

Democrats

Illinois: Dick Durbin ---> Lauren Underwood

Massachusetts: Ed Markey ---> Ayanna Pressley

(Maybe??) Michigan: Gary Peters ---> Mallory McMorrow (Maybe??)

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen ---> Chris Pappas/Maggie Goodlander

Rhode Island: Jack Reed ---> Seth Magaziner/Gabe Amo

[Talleyrand]

Unfortunately, Markey will hold the seat until he dies. He's been in Congress since 1976 and I don't see him stepping down voluntarily. As for Peters, he wouldn't have led the DSCC two cycles in a row if he wanted out.

I would love it if Coons retired, but he'll only be 63 in 2026.

[Tekken_Guy]

I am only doing the Senate, because it is too difficult to predict House retirements

Republicans

Idaho: Jim Risch ---> Janice McGeachin/Russ Fulcher

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell ---> Daniel Cameron

Maine: Susan Collins ---> Jared Golden/Troy Jackson (Dem Flip)

Texas: John Cornyn ---> Ken Paxton (maybe a Democrat could win this under a Blue Wave)

Democrats

Illinois: Dick Durbin ---> Lauren Underwood

Massachusetts: Ed Markey ---> Ayanna Pressley

(Maybe??) Michigan: Gary Peters ---> Mallory McMorrow (Maybe??)

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen ---> Chris Pappas/Maggie Goodlander

Rhode Island: Jack Reed ---> Seth Magaziner/Gabe Amo

I doubt Goodlander would run if Shaheen retires. I’m 90% confident her successor will be Pappas, though Goodlander probably starts as the frontrunner to Hassan’s seat.

I also don’t think Cameron has a clear path to the Senate anymore after he flopped in his gubernatorial bid.

Pressley probably gets an establishment primary opponent like Moulton or Kennedy though it’d probably play out like Alsobrooks vs. Trone.

[Schumer can go f*** himself!]

I wonder if Kaptur’s much-closer-than-expected re-election scares her into calling it a career.

Kaptur likely isn’t going to leave Congress until she loses re-election or dies imo

[Atlas Force]

Atp I’d be surprised if Durbin ran again. Not one but two notable Democrats have already launched shadow campaigns for a statewide run, so maybe the state party knows something about his future plans that we don’t:

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1846691881440141685
https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1846693226226360785

[CentristRepublican]

I wonder if Kaptur’s much-closer-than-expected re-election scares her into calling it a career.

She might just be a lifer. If I were her I'd have either retired in 2022 or this year rather than risk it. Although maybe 2022 made her complacent and 2024 brings her to her senses about how red the district is now.

How's that race looking? Is it still in play or has Kaptur all-but-won (with a photo finish)?

Y'know, if Kaptur were to run in 2026 and somehow lose - she'd have made congressional history twice: first as the longest serving woman in Congress, then as the longest serving member of Congress to lose reelection (record is currently held by Jack Brooks, D-TX, 1953-1995).

[Progressive Pessimist]

Gary Peters?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/PetrellaReports/status/1856116520776053237
He will be 82 and 30 years is a long time for anyone to be a Senator.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Gary Peters?

Peters won't retire

[Cape Verde]

Danny Davis has been a popular retirement guess for at least 10 years, but he still manages to survive.

[Tekken_Guy]

Danny Davis has been a popular retirement guess for at least 10 years, but he still manages to survive.

On the GOP side, Hal Rogers and Virginia Foxx also come to mind.

[MargieCat]

Word on the street is that Mike Lawler may retire and run for governor.

[Cape Verde]

There are so many term-limited Republican governors in the South (FL, GA, AL, SC, TN, OK). Several Republican congressmen will run for these governorships.

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/PetrellaReports/status/1856116520776053237
He will be 82 and 30 years is a long time for anyone to be a Senator.

Why is him being in the minority a big thing?

[MargieCat]

https://twitter.com/PetrellaReports/status/1856116520776053237
He will be 82 and 30 years is a long time for anyone to be a Senator.

Wow!

As if him running for re-election is doing Democrats a favor.

It's a safe blue state and a likely blue wave, just effing retire.