The Accolade-Acceptance Thread

[Farmlands]

Well, it seems like I'll get Wisconsin and Nevada correct when it comes to the most contested swing states. No need to take a look at the rest of my prediction map, though. Also, damn it Georgia, once again.

[RI]

My Atlas predictions are 5/5 in presidential elections since 2008.

[VALibertarian]

I'll accept a modest accolade for being skeptical against all the anecdotal dem hype, believing from the start that Harris's momentum was astroturfed nonsense, believing Walz was a meh pick for VP, and calling the Selzer poll as way off outlier and Trump would win Iowa by at least his 2020 margin

[Mr. Illini]

Posters on here badly want for Wisconsin (and the broader race) to be anything other than a pure tossup. Sorry if you can’t deal with reality.

snip

The wishcasting is nauseating tbh. I want Kamala to win, too, but getting overconfident is an easy way to get hurt.

snip

Why do people think a few pictures from Philly mean something?

snip

There’s a reason the MOE is stated. Because polls cannot be accurate enough to predict a result that is within a few points.

I’m not worried that polls are underestimating Trump. I’m worried that the polling averages in the rust belt are correct. If they are, all are within the margin of error, which means it’s anyone’s game.

There’s no reason to believe he is [triaging PA]

snip

How is this the takeaway from a +1 poll, well within the margin of error? I'm genuinely curious.

I would not read into the Door County result at all. It may have been a bellwether in the past, but it is not demographically representative of the state as a whole.

A very large share of the residents in the northern half of the county are wealthy people from Illinois. It’s feasible that the county swings left while the state does not.

[Voice of low info America]

One post will do.

The doomers were right.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

I think the polling industry deserves accolades. After two straight misses, they shifted their methodology and it worked. For all the talk of herding, it seems they wound up being pretty accurate.

Also going to congratulate myself on calling Ohio Senate for over a year.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Every state that both HRC and Biden won by over 10% swings R from 2020- not just CA and NY, but also WA, OR, CO, MA, NJ, MD, RI, and HI. (Guess VT and CT make this a hot take.)

I think this has happened for VT? Only other confirmed Harris states that are >95% in are RI and DE.

Was really hoping the battleground states would be more D at this point in the count. Definitely wasn't expecting TX to go R by double digits...

My trend map predictions were predicated on a Harris victory... but it looks like I correctly called the major Acela corridor states all trending R on top of NY, CA, and FL.

Not sure if the D and R trends are balanced population wise but here goes nothing. Ignore the shades.

NY and FL definitely trend R, even though FL will probably be closer than the Leipverse consensus thinks. I also have the entire West Coast trending R from 2020 due to domestic migration patterns and general blue-state angst over white-collar jobs, housing affordability, and homelessness. (This is also why I have MD trending R and MA not definitively trending D.) I'm skeptical of NV definitively trending R because I suspect transplants are keeping the D floor relatively high.

Too lazy to do a swing map. Updates to my trend map- AZ and PA no longer "favored to trend D", OH and WI no longer "favored to trend R".

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1854235647210356911?s=46

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbuRLgqXkA0MTyD.png

[Calgacus]

Biden won in 2020 by less than 50,000 votes after 4 years of political chaos promising a "return to normality" and instead delivered international chaos and stagflation before going fully senile just in time for the election. Harris did nothing whatsoever to disconnect herself from this legacy and instead seemed to think fear of Trump would somehow be higher than it was after 4 years of his presidency.

Trump has been the obvious favourite for ages at this point, some people just refused to admit it and hung onto copium.

I was going through my old posts to see how early I called it and the answer is November 4th, 2020

Democrats in 2 to 4 years might regret winning this election.

Stuck with a relatively unpopular, lame duck president and his even less popular carry-along VP while the Republicans have learned just how wide their potential base is. It seems like they can repeat or even improve on 2016 rural margins and turnout, and as long as there isn't an equally huge suburban wave they'll have a huge edge in the EC.

The suburbs might have won Biden the presidency but will those voters stick around like the Obama-Trump rurals did when the Trump tax cuts expire and Trump isn't there to attract their rage? Frankly I doubt they'll be half as loyal without very strong motivation to turn out, and even then it's by a razor's edge. The long term advantage was always the growing Latino share of the population, but if they can swing so dramatically against them in just one election then a lot of the presumed favourable trends for Democrats look a lot less favourable.

[Chief Justice PiT]

And another. Given the Latino shifts we've seen in this election, the "bu-but what about the Kill Tony guy's Puerto Rico comment?!?!" stuff is looking genuinely delusional in hindsight. Why do you people think Puerto Ricans left their sh*tty island to begin with? Because they know perfectly well that it sucks.

6) The Puerto Rico comment is being ridiculously overblown. Nobody cares.

Your whole post is silly dooming, but just a head's up that everyone and their mom is going to be constantly bumping this comment in particular after the election. You clearly have not done any kind of reading or listening with regards to PR voters in PA (and elsewhere) who were enraged by the trump comic and have decided to vote Harris as a result.

The Puerto Rican population of PA is only marginally larger than the Muslim population of MI percentagewise. Dems also have much less to gain with Puerto Ricans than they have to lose with Arabs and Muslims. Yet for some reason, I’m always being told that Harris losing Arab votes doesn’t matter, but Trump losing Puerto Rican votes does.

     I think the issue is the average Atlas poster just doesn't know Latinos or live in their world. I interact with it a lot, and low-level casual bigotry is just regarded as normal there. I've had a Peruvian man tell me Colombian Spanish sounds terrible and the only good Spanish is spoken in Peru, knowing my wife is Colombian. A comment insulting one's homeland won't be received with joy, but most people also don't regard it as a cardinal sin either. Democrat partisans know how they would react, and assume everyone else will be the same.

[#LANK]

My map ate s---, America ate s---. Like I said on Saturday if this happens it's time to sober up and face reality, and frankly no clue where the phuck the Dems even go from here

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

I didn’t call specific states, but I did damn well with the fundamentals.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Close to the number, but for the wrong reasons.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I also want to offer accolades to Hagrid of the Deep. In 2015-16, we bashed heads a lot but for the last six years, he has consistently had some of the most spot on analysis on this forum.

Her strategy at the end here has been a flop, and I’m surprised the campaign went with it.

Latching onto Trump’s behaviour has already failed one woman candidate, yet here Harris is doing it again. Even though she’s right, Americans read it as a sanctimonious Karen scolding them. Trump always gets the benefit of the doubt, so when his opponent emphasizes that he shouldn’t have said something (Hitler’s generals, eating the pets, dictator on day one, etc…), voters don’t care and instead tend to think the Democrat is making a big deal about nothing.

This closing argument should be policy all the way. They needed to make Trump Mitt Romney. But again, they’re making him “not a normal Republican,” which is exactly what people like about him!

She’s done unless this tape really does drop.

[Lacking All Conviction; Filled With Passionate Intensity]

Still Trump. It'll be even more depressing seeing a 2016 redux after the poll yesterday gave me hope.

1) Harris will be unable to overcome massive third-party votes among Arab-Americans, which may flip Michigan.
2) Early voting in Nevada is terrible and I expect Ralston to predict a Trump win there. I've been saying this is a demographically good state for Trump in both of the past two election cycles, and I've always been surprised when it didn't flip for him. This time I think his popularity among UFC retards will be enough to win the state.
3) Trump doesn't even need a polling error in his favor at this point in order to win, but he will probably get one anyway.
4) Biden's mental decline and tariff policies have dragged down Harris in this campaign and irreparably damaged what would have otherwise been a solid defense against another Trump term.
5) Gains by Harris among college-educated white women will be offset by Trump's gains among Hispanics, young men, and other minority groups.
6) The Puerto Rico comment is being ridiculously overblown. Nobody cares.
7) Iowa will not be close. Selzer oversampled Biden 2020 voters. The trends here do look good for Harris given the aforementioned gains among educated white women (without any minority vote gains by Trump to offset those losses), but there is no chance it will vote for Trump by less than 6%. This does bode poorly for him in Wisconsin, but I always expected a Harris win there, and those trends don't extrapolate well to PA, which is much redder in rural areas and demographically diverse.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

And please spare me the "Muh Harris is an Indian woman so Asians will swing d" when the they literally swung r in her first time running in 2020 lol

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Almost everyone who wrote "Bookmark this post" in the last year ended up with egg on their face. Do not recommend resorting to that. Ljube was one exception:

Harris's favorability is really strong everywhere here, better than Trumps by quite a few points in most.

JD Vance already being underwater is just lol

That's because Fox only polled Democrats.

Casey is up 13 in the same poll.

So? Casey winning by 13 is very plausible. He’s extremely popular and his opponent is an out of touch rich guy carpetbagger.

It is not at all plausible.
Bookmark this post to see who was right.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I was sounding the alarm about the possibility of the Republican PV/EC advantage going away.  It's unclear still if Pennsylvania (the tipping point state) will be to the right or left of the tipping point state, but it will be close either way.

[Pretzel]

My prediction is that Trump will win the Electoral College 312-226, by flipping GA, AZ, NV, PA, MI, and WI, while Trump will win the national popular vote by less then 1 point.

Mine was spot on, with the caveat that Trump will probably win the popular vote by a little more then I thought, LOL.

[Iowa+3]

And another. Given the Latino shifts we've seen in this election, the "bu-but what about the Kill Tony guy's Puerto Rico comment?!?!" stuff is looking genuinely delusional in hindsight. Why do you people think Puerto Ricans left their sh*tty island to begin with? Because they know perfectly well that it sucks.

6) The Puerto Rico comment is being ridiculously overblown. Nobody cares.

Your whole post is silly dooming, but just a head's up that everyone and their mom is going to be constantly bumping this comment in particular after the election. You clearly have not done any kind of reading or listening with regards to PR voters in PA (and elsewhere) who were enraged by the trump comic and have decided to vote Harris as a result.

The Puerto Rican population of PA is only marginally larger than the Muslim population of MI percentagewise. Dems also have much less to gain with Puerto Ricans than they have to lose with Arabs and Muslims. Yet for some reason, I’m always being told that Harris losing Arab votes doesn’t matter, but Trump losing Puerto Rican votes does.

     I think the issue is the average Atlas poster just doesn't know Latinos or live in their world. I interact with it a lot, and low-level casual bigotry is just regarded as normal there. I've had a Peruvian man tell me Colombian Spanish sounds terrible and the only good Spanish is spoken in Peru, knowing my wife is Colombian. A comment insulting one's homeland won't be received with joy, but most people also don't regard it as a cardinal sin either. Democrat partisans know how they would react, and assume everyone else will be the same.

I think PiT and I are probably the only Atlasians married to Latinos. My wife is Mexican, the thing you have to remember is that there isn't a pan-Latino identity. Heck, there isn't a pan-Mexican identity. Most of my wife's relatives have moved to the United States or Canada if they have the opportunity to go. Those who don't are divided by those who live in Monterrey, and those who live at home in Chiapas. Those in Monterrey regard Chiapas as a sh**thole.

Calling Puerto Rico a sh**thole will gain Trump votes among the Latinos who left their country to go to the United States. There is a reason why they left, and the love that Trump is blunt and calls things the way they actually are.

And yes, different groups within different countries all sh**t on each other. It's not one big happy family. Ask her how she feels about Messi....

Mexicans have a lot of casual racism, that is just accepted in their society particularly to the Mexican indians, or different kind of Latinos, etc. That Trump would sh**t on PR will make everyone ELSE happy, and most of the immigration from PR in the US won't care. It's a win/win for him.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

You know the facts of US politics, but I don't think you fully understand how California Democrats are perceived by the rest of the country, and especially in the Midwestern swing states the Democrats need to win this fall. The perception is that California is an asylum run by the lunatics, and that our elected officials have turned our state into an expensive, overtaxed hellscape with no affordable housing, congested traffic, byzantine construction and building codes, and homeless feces and needles on the streets. Ask the average Ohioan or Michigander what they think of California, and they will undoubtedly say that CA Dems care more about woke DEI policies than providing the bare necessities of adequate policing.

All of this is exaggerated to a degree, but it's rooted in enough fact that any CA Democrat running on the national stage will be inextricably linked to these failed policies from minute one. Honestly, anyone who thinks Newsom or Harris should be within a thousand yards of the convention stage has no business making any recommendations regarding candidates to put forward. It would be political malpractice.

This take ended up being pretty wrong. Harris held up quite well in the midwest, especially in the states she needed to win. The biggest backlash seemed to come in blue states + TX/FL. California especially seems to have at least a 8% shift to Trump, probably more (it's 12.5% now)... her own constituents rejected her

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

And another. Given the Latino shifts we've seen in this election, the "bu-but what about the Kill Tony guy's Puerto Rico comment?!?!" stuff is looking genuinely delusional in hindsight. Why do you people think Puerto Ricans left their sh*tty island to begin with? Because they know perfectly well that it sucks.

     I think the issue is the average Atlas poster just doesn't know Latinos or live in their world. I interact with it a lot, and low-level casual bigotry is just regarded as normal there. I've had a Peruvian man tell me Colombian Spanish sounds terrible and the only good Spanish is spoken in Peru, knowing my wife is Colombian. A comment insulting one's homeland won't be received with joy, but most people also don't regard it as a cardinal sin either. Democrat partisans know how they would react, and assume everyone else will be the same.

I think PiT and I are probably the only Atlasians married to Latinos. My wife is Mexican, the thing you have to remember is that there isn't a pan-Latino identity. Heck, there isn't a pan-Mexican identity. Most of my wife's relatives have moved to the United States or Canada if they have the opportunity to go. Those who don't are divided by those who live in Monterrey, and those who live at home in Chiapas. Those in Monterrey regard Chiapas as a sh**thole.

Calling Puerto Rico a sh**thole will gain Trump votes among the Latinos who left their country to go to the United States. There is a reason why they left, and the love that Trump is blunt and calls things the way they actually are.

And yes, different groups within different countries all sh**t on each other. It's not one big happy family. Ask her how she feels about Messi....

Mexicans have a lot of casual racism, that is just accepted in their society particularly to the Mexican indians, or different kind of Latinos, etc. That Trump would sh**t on PR will make everyone ELSE happy, and most of the immigration from PR in the US won't care. It's a win/win for him.

So is xingkerui. But I broadly agree with your comments on Latinos despite not being one or married to one. There is definitely regionalism among the Chinese and Indian diasporas much like the Mexican regionalism you described, mainly because immigration from those countries is concentrated among specific regions. No idea if there’s been any discernable electoral impact from that.

Every state that both HRC and Biden won by over 10% swings R from 2020- not just CA and NY, but also WA, OR, CO, MA, NJ, MD, RI, and HI. (Guess VT and CT make this a hot take.)

The apparent WA D swing is currently 0.14% so it’s highly likely to also swing R when all the votes are counted. Idk if being right on all the Safe D states swinging R or outstate WA resisting the rising tide of Trumpism would be the less debilitating moral victory here…

11/09 update: WA has now swung R from 2022 and is marginally less D than CA at this stage of the count. Again, it's very sobering for CA to have swung R by so much for CA voting to the left of WA to even be in contention- regardless of how much of it was caused by a dropoff in D turnout versus a increase in raw R turnout.

[MaynardFriedman]

I was right about Arabs:

I think you’d see a plurality vote third party before you saw them vote for Trump.

Only someone totally disconnected from Arabs would think this. Many of them are quite comfortable voting for Trump to punish Democrats. Of those that aren't, they'd sooner decide to sit the election out. This is how Trump could landslide with Arabs.

Doesn't mean it will happen but people here are way too sanguine.

I was incredibly wrong about Cubans/Venezuelans on the other hand.

[Lacking All Conviction; Filled With Passionate Intensity]

I promise this is my last one.

I worry that the Democrats will learn the exact wrong lesson from this and start hoping that Trump runs again. Do not get cocky. You underestimate him at your own peril.

[Voice of low info America]

I promise this is my last one.

I worry that the Democrats will learn the exact wrong lesson from this and start hoping that Trump runs again. Do not get cocky. You underestimate him at your own peril.

Oh, Badger...

I worry that the Democrats will learn the exact wrong lesson from this and start hoping that Trump runs again. Do not get cocky. You underestimate him at your own peril.

Yes, yes. We keep hearing how Democrats are just as bad as Republicans for pushing a few Trojan horses in wangy districts - - which turns out to have absolutely paid off - as the Republicans who support such extremists pretty much across the board to begin with.

If we have a candidate better than Hillary Clinton in 2024, I don't think we have to fear underestimating trump.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I'm doing this because I can, not because I should.

See, I believe Trump is favoured to win overall because Harris has to win all of the winnable states that are left on the board and Trump only has to win one (if you assume that GA, NC, and AZ are gone... which is a reasonable assumption, I think). The fact that we frequently get polls in these leftover states with him winning is not reassuring.

Beet being Beet lol

Data we have points to this result being extremely plausible.

There are plenty of other plausible possibilities, including various Harris wins, but nothing about this scenario is outrageous. If you are not at least prepared for a map like this one, I'm not sure where you've been or what you've been doing for the last three weeks.

56% confident Trump wins.

That's not too bearish on Harris for you.

It’s a close race. I’ve never denied that. I only take issue with the people who see every bad poll for Harris and call it garbage. Or the people who deny the clear pattern right in front of them, which is that Trump has a persistent edge in the majority of swing states, making his path to 270 much easier than Harris’s.

It’s for sure a margin-of-error race, but so far most of the “errors” are landing all on one side. Could there be a systemic under representation of Harris’s support? Sure. Will there be? I’m less sure. So I’ll defer to the best indicator we have, which is the polls (not a bunch of people’s gut).

Harris’s utter humiliation of Trump at the first debate. It solidified the fact that there would be no others, which has allowed Trump to slowly creep up in the polls.

This is exactly what I predicted, by the way… but everyone called me a doomer.

Beginning to feel like she will lose bigger than Hillary did, which will give us a second election in a row vindicating our 2016 nominee.

It's certainly possible, but it needs to be said that if that's what we're rooting for and relying on, it's because the real evidence actually shows we're losing...

Because Kamala Harris is doing poorly nationally…

I’m beginning to feel like her “Donald Trump is scary and offensive” message isn’t that ridiculous on its own, but it is not as powerful as it could be because, sadly, it’s coming from a woman. People don’t want to hear it from someone who “could be their wife or their mother.” I hate this for America, but I think a lot of people eyeroll it when she stands up there indignantly, upset about things Trump has said.

I also think her media barrage with all the interviews has failed. People see her everywhere but it’s not working. Her CNN town hall is a good example of why: She preambles about nothing in her answers and then barely gets around to answering them only at the very end of her response. A clear question needs to be met with a clear answer straight away, or voters will see her as inauthentic and focus-grouped rather than genuine.

Trump isn’t off the hook here, but I can see how he would come across as someone who says what he’s thinking without worrying about what the right answer is. People seem to like that.

And yet again: the voters they paneled at the end felt no better about Trump, and 3 moved towards Harris. You can believe what you want about the town hall and other things, but the concrete outcomes that we're seeing don't line up with the hot takes.

A focus group at the end of a “Kamala Harris town hall” is basically a glorified push poll. You aren’t serious. The preponderance of polling data shows she has slipped considerably, but I guess if we discounted all the polls you’d like us to, it would only show she’s slipped a bit.

Oh wait. A bit? That’s enough in a horserace this tight.

I hope the world you live in comes to pass for the rest of us. I really do. But there is value in realism, too.

Her strategy at the end here has been a flop, and I’m surprised the campaign went with it.

Latching onto Trump’s behaviour has already failed one woman candidate, yet here Harris is doing it again. Even though she’s right, Americans read it as a sanctimonious Karen scolding them. Trump always gets the benefit of the doubt, so when his opponent emphasizes that he shouldn’t have said something (Hitler’s generals, eating the pets, dictator on day one, etc…), voters don’t care and instead tend to think the Democrat is making a big deal about nothing.

This closing argument should be policy all the way. They needed to make Trump Mitt Romney. But again, they’re making him “not a normal Republican,” which is exactly what people like about him!

She’s done unless this tape really does drop.

Nearly all of her paid media is on policy/issues. Is a candidate for president supposed to ignore that the other candidate praised Adolf Hitler? Some of these takes are getting a little ridiculous.

Also, no one will ever be able to make Trump Mitt Romney. You can't honestly believe that is true. You can make Trump seem out of touch, but only to an extent. (and admittedly, Harris has made headway on that, as she leads most polls on 'which person cares about me' / 'middle class' etc - but I'm not surprised you failed to give her credit for that)

Earlier in the campaign when Trump flopped around talking about Harris’s race, she let him drown in it without taking the bait: “same old tired playbook.” It was perfect. In a normal campaign, nobody would let that slide, but Harris recognized that Trump was trying to distract and that the American people, sadly, don’t care.

Today, you can smell that she is desperate and I think she’d take the bait.

The Hitler comments are awful, but Americans aren’t there on something he said years ago without audio proof. I wish they were, but I also think Harris was stronger when she made Trump look small. Trump being on the same level as Hitler gives him power.

Are you seriously comparing his comments about her race and what he did to try and steal the last election? Those are two totally different things. Trumps race comments should be ignored, his fascist tendencies should not. The idea of comparing him calling her not black to him praising Hitler is just so incomparable that the idea is truly wild.

It's kind of crazy how a few bad polls will suddenly just make people believe what they want to believe, and fit whatever narrative they want into it.

The idea that Trump should be ignored when he's literally talking about ADOLF HITLER is certifiably crazy. If she ignored *that*, that would make her look incredibly weak.

You’re right that I shouldn’t compare them, because the race comments arguably could have been a stronger line of attack. Liberals have been calling Trump Hitler for nine years, so there is literally no shock value or persuasion power in anything she could say about it.

Honestly, I think it’s a total coin flip at this point, but Trump probably has a slight edge. If he wins, it’ll be because of inflation.

Yeah, inflation’s not even the big problem anymore—people actually have more buying power now than back in 2019. But no one’s adjusted to the sticker shock. They walk into the grocery store, see those high prices, and they’re still pissed, even though their wages have actually caught up. Plus, everyone’s looking back at Trump’s economy with rose-colored glasses, forgetting we were literally in a recession during his last year in office.

I think housing is also a huge part of the conversation. What does it matter if I can afford milk when, in the cities and many suburbs, I see Boomers who bought a home under very favourable conditions practically winning the lottery at the expense of young people's ability to do the same?

I know it's worse in Canada, but home prices have gone up big-time in the US since 2019, and with the high interest rates it genuinely seems impossible for hardworking young people with decent jobs to even dream of getting in. Yes, they could move to Kentucky, but people shouldn't have to move across the country and uproot their lives to secure rewards for their work.

And yet Harris the only one directly talking about it.

I agree, and I’m glad she is.

But when Trump and his people bring it up, they are able to successfully mirror the anger people are feeling. I hate that they are doing it by blaming immigrants, but people are angry—even people who would be willing to vote for progressives. The politician that shows they “get it” is the one who is going to win these people’s votes. I’m not sure “joy” is what a lot of Millennials and Zoomers are feeling.

It’s like “when you go low, we go high.” I mean, sure… but also I want you to f-cking slog it out for me because our system is in crisis as the rich get richer.

Could help if he endorses and campaigns for Trump.

A lot of Democratic dooming over early vote counts, but if there's ever a year for anti-Trump Republicans, it's 2024. The question is, how many are there? Just 5% would be huge.

Disagree with you.

If there' ever a year for anti-Trump Republicans, it was 2016.

At this point 99% of Republicans approve of his performance in office

I agree. And even then, Hillary worked her ass off to try to bring them into the fold with her "Trump is not a normal Republican" stuff... it didn't do her any favours. For every educated Republican who was scared that Trump was not normal, there was a less educated non-voter who loved that he was not normal and came into Trump's fold.

I have been very skeptical of Harris going in this direction. Before this, it seemed like she was trying hard not to repeat Hillary's mistakes... but now I see someone who is sleepwalking in the exact same direction.

Sigh. This poll has basically unchanged from August.

August:
Dems: Harris 94-2
Reps: Trump 93-3
Indies: Harris 41-38

Now:
Dems: Harris 97-3
Reps: Trump 98-2
Indies: Harris 49-46

What changed? the party ID makeup. It was D+3.3 in August. This time it's D+0.9.

But those facts are too much when it's easier to just doom!

Another mic drop from wbrocks. You're doing god's work here actually adding context for these doomers.

You know it’s possible people are changing how they identify by Party ID as we move from August to the election, right?

Why don’t you ask President Romney how he feels about this brilliant unskewing you folks keep trying to do?

Yes! Keep it coming!

Democrats acknowledged this and met the American people where they were. Republicans refuse to, and should not be rewarded!

Except Democrats didn’t really acknowledge it explicitly. They expressed concerns that Biden would lose to Trump, so Biden expressed concerns that their concerns would become the story and stepped aside. No Democratic leader has acknowledged that Biden continues to dangerously decline.

It’s also not clear that acknowledging it is the best thing to do, because then the question of “what did Harris know about it” becomes the next natural story. And because no Democrat can acknowledge it, I don’t think they can effectively use this line against Trump.

It would be so electorally helpful for them to be able to say we dumped Biden over this, now look at Trump. But they can’t.

The race is super stable. The only thing happening is what I have always said would happen and that is that voters on the fence about Trump are finding their excuses to vote for Trump anyway, just like it happened in 2016 and 2020. This is one of the two main reasons why Trump is the favourite right now, with the other being the usual polling errors with Trump on the ballot.

I am officially moving my forecast from tilt Trump to lean Trump. And honestly, that is being generous to Harris. We are slowly getting to the point where polls actually need to be underestimating Harris for her to win and that just does not seem likely given the history of polling Trump races.
I currently believe that the single most likely outcome is Trump winning all 7 swing states.

I’m almost there, with Harris maybe holding onto Michigan. Weird map.

As a poor person without a retirement plan or pension or home, the 'economy is good' is irrelevant to us. It's entirely about wages and inflation. Milk has again increased in price to 3.89 at Kroger in my area after dropping to 3.69 and eggs remain expensive in comparison to before Covid. You're talking being like 1.69 for a dozen to being 3.29, because eggs aren't just a good they're also a component good.

 I vote D all the way, but there is not demonstrative evidence I can use to convince people 'the economy is great'. Biden has not done enough on the low end, this infrastructure bill was so necessary and the US would be an unplottable mass of roads without it, but it hasn't done anything on our end. I live in Memphis, a majority black city where me, as a honky, are the minority, and we all feel the pain of these rising costs. Of course black americans are seeking another choice than the same old democrat jag. We need real on the ground proposals to ease our suffering and help us ascend into the middle class. The poors are still getting b*ttf***ed and I have no illusions Republicans have any plans to help that but people are desperate. FFS help us get out of these holes, rent is skyrocketing because half the companys homes are owned by corporations, and while there are some proposals that may help we are hurting NOW.

So yeah Trump has momentum. The poors aka me do not have enough.

"Eggs are too expensive so let's vote for dictatorship!"

I'm voting for Harris you rump of a lame cow, but if you're not willing to understand the problem, then you have joined the greater problem the party faces. We are facing the backlash of trash republican deregulatory policies, but it has occurred while we have held power. Wages are stagnant, I don't give a flying donkey trumpet what some 'jobs report' says, it is not getting to us boots on the ground. If democrat policies were so effective, then 4 years into a dem administration we should be seeing the kickback

AGAIN, I am merely looking at and understanding the problem from many voters in my area who are predominantly black, and who many will continue to vote dem regardless of conditions because Trump is obvious trash who helps no one. BUT I completely understand the desire for alternatives and also understand the dem platform is trying, but again on ground level for most americans in my position, things aren't really going to change much.

I'm poor AND black.

I don't decide my vote on "muh eggs".

I'm not gonna apologize for having a basic understanding of civics and knowing that somebody who openly says he will throw out the constitution isn't fit for the office.

I'm tired of playing nice with these people. It's way past time to call a spade a spade.

I completely agree, but we have to play cards with people if we want to convince them our side is right, and I have to try to understand their issues to do that.

A guy makes a well thought out post describing why democrats are failing to win over many voters, and the red av response is to snidely dismiss it as "muh eggs". This kind of thing is why Democrats are struggling to beat a party led by a deranged, senile wanna-be dictator and his incel sidekick.

Fine. Let's talk substance. What will Trump do to make any of this better? Deport millions of people and drastically raise taxes on any and every import?

I can understand that things could have gone better. Maybe that extra stimulus payment was too high or whatever but the fact is that inflation is at 2% and unemployment is at 4%. And the alternative to what's going on right now is to hope that if millions of people were to disappear overnight, there would be more stuff to go around amongst fewer people and companies would be forced to hire more people if they couldn't import things that we need. You know, by hiring the people that are getting kicked out.

Unemployment and inflation mean little when the overall promise of the American system—that hard work is rewarded—is fading.

Harris needed to run on a bit more anger, honestly.