The Accolade-Acceptance Thread

[Lacking All Conviction; Filled With Passionate Intensity]

This is not a thread I wanted to have to make. But I'm gonna do it anyway because I've grown sick of being called a "doomer" these past four years.

They have four years to incorporate fascist coups into their warped conception of what Real America™ looks like. I'm confident that by 2024 Fuzzy & CO will have succeeded in deluding themselves into either justifying or forgetting what Trump did this week.

1) If Biden is removed from the ticket but continues to serve as president, Democrats will open themselves up to a very obvious line of attack: Why is this man, who is apparently not physically/mentally fit to run for the office of the presidency, fit to serve in it for the rest of his term? This would essentially be telling voters that Democrats think winning this election is more important than providing America with competent leadership, and they would be right.

The knee-jerk lib-brain response to this is that running for president requires certain skill sets that don't matter when it comes to actually doing the job. While this is factually true, it will not matter to the millions of people who just saw what happened tonight. They will take this as an insult to their intelligence, and they would be right to do so. If Biden had chosen not to run for re-election a year ago, his absence on the ticket could have been excused as him "trying to focus 100% on his presidency" or something-- but it is now officially too late for that.

You know the facts of US politics, but I don't think you fully understand how California Democrats are perceived by the rest of the country, and especially in the Midwestern swing states the Democrats need to win this fall. The perception is that California is an asylum run by the lunatics, and that our elected officials have turned our state into an expensive, overtaxed hellscape with no affordable housing, congested traffic, byzantine construction and building codes, and homeless feces and needles on the streets. Ask the average Ohioan or Michigander what they think of California, and they will undoubtedly say that CA Dems care more about woke DEI policies than providing the bare necessities of adequate policing.

All of this is exaggerated to a degree, but it's rooted in enough fact that any CA Democrat running on the national stage will be inextricably linked to these failed policies from minute one. Honestly, anyone who thinks Newsom or Harris should be within a thousand yards of the convention stage has no business making any recommendations regarding candidates to put forward. It would be political malpractice.

The argument that Harris is favored rests on two unprovable assumptions:

1) Pollsters have managed to account for the polling errors that underestimated Trump in both 2016 and 2020. I remain unconvinced that this is the case, but even if it were true, it only points to a tied race at best. Trump wins all tied races given the GOP's EC advantage.

2) Given that #1 is true, pollsters have actually overcorrected for the hidden Trump vote, either by using different sampling or simply herding. This is the only way you can make the argument that the race is not a tie, and that Harris is actually favored.

Are both of these true? Uh... maybe. But they're both complete guesswork at this point. I don't make predictions by trying to imagine what's going on in the minds of America's pollsters. Their methodologies may be wrong, but at the moment it's a black box, and I'm not going to engage in wishcasting speculation to give myself false hope.

The truth is that right now, Trump is the most popular he's ever been, has the broadest and most diverse coalition he's ever built, and is doing better in the polls than he ever has before. He won 2016 and very nearly won 2020 with worse numbers and fundamentals than what he's facing now. It is patently stupid to say that Harris is favored under these circumstances, and I will be very sad to accept my accolades come Tuesday night.

Post your accolade acceptances below, if applicable.

[jojoju1998]

I never really said this out loud, but I had a hunch that democrats becoming the party of JUST the college educated whites will bite them in the butt.

[SuzerainOfSwat]

This is kind of funny, I voted for the VP, but the way people have been Trump’s not possibility of winning is funny. Like it was all “Herding” and stuff. If Trump wins comfortably then there will be some Worthless autopsy where online Dems who have never interacted with the people who they’d need to win will talk down onto them.

[NYDem]

Trump was not, in fact, triaging Pennsylvania:

Yeah bro he's totally triaging the likely tipping point state where he's currently got a narrow lead. 10/10 analysis

Dude, seriously stop being an a-hole to everyone. All you do is come on this forum and be a jerk to everyone.

Sorry I don't take KMH's spam as seriously as you do. "Is Trump triaging Pennsylvania?" is not a serious thread.

[Calgacus]

Biden won in 2020 by less than 50,000 votes after 4 years of political chaos promising a "return to normality" and instead delivered international chaos and stagflation before going fully senile just in time for the election. Harris did nothing whatsoever to disconnect herself from this legacy and instead seemed to think fear of Trump would somehow be higher than it was after 4 years of his presidency.

Trump has been the obvious favourite for ages at this point, some people just refused to admit it and hung onto copium.

[पिकाचु]

Meh.

[Rand]

I predicted every result with 100% accuracy. Anyone who doubts me or tries to prove me wrong admits they are attracted to children.

[Asta]

Honestly, Democrats shouldn't worry much about polling error as much as the environment. Most current incumbents around the world have been punished in the recent elections.

I think Harris has way too much to overcome in such a short time to explain why she will handle inflation better. It wouldn't be surprising at all if she wins, but I am far more mentally prepared than other Democrats that Trump could win by a decent margin.

Lean Trump

Bush won re-election by a bigger margin.
Obama won his re-election by a much smaller margin.
Trump probably would have won re-election by a bigger margin without covid.

Re-election seems to have a right wing shift.
I'm not even confident Biden would win the popular vote as of now.

Absolutely not.

The pessimistic side of me thinks Republicans have bigger incumbency advantage (see Reagan, Bush Jr.). Trump probably would have held on to all states and won by bigger margin had covid not happened.

People often forget that Obama was re-elected by smaller margin. Heck, he lost Indiana by double digit after winning it the first time. If there is any correlation, which I don't know for sure is merely a fluky pattern, it is that Democrats get punished far more heavily. If covid happened under Hillary Clinton, she would have lost the popular vote and been considered the worst president of modern times by a majority of independents. Trump, of course, gets a pass and is still worshipped.

Dems need to wake up. Biden faces a steep uphill battle to win a re-match as of now and probably even if the economy gets even better and covid is almost entirely eradicated.

NJ registered more Republicans than Democrats after Biden was inaugurated. We could really turn from a solid blue state to a lean blue state in the near future if we let our guard down. NJ needs to keep registering far more Democrats if we want to keep up solid blue margin. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden wins NJ only by 10 points in 2024.  

I'd say my prediction wasn't too shabby for a red avatar. Heck, I actually underestimated how well Trump would do in NJ.

I didn't know at the time Democrats would replace Biden with Harris, but even so I knew replacing him with a younger candidate wouldn't be enough. Harris is mostly damage control and just a replacement of Biden to not get absolutely blown out like Jimmy Carter level.

[Mr. Smith]

Remains to be seen for anything Presidential, but I called it in the Senate regarding Ohio.

[BlueSwan]

This is not a thread I wanted to have to make. But I'm gonna do it anyway because I've grown sick of being called a "doomer" these past four years.

Same. The counting is not over, but so far it seems like I have been right about basically everything this election cycle.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Everyone is treating this like the Academy Awards and looking at films in the last 1-2 months.

But the reasons for Trump's strength dates back months and years.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=543031.msg9488217#msg9488217

Using the judicial system as a political weapon was a poor election strategy.

Letting the entire population of Nebraska, Wyoming and Montana to enter the country illegally through the southern border was a poor election strategy.

Calling Trump a Nazi and a racist infuriated the average American.

Clearly, the Democrat leadership in all cases took the American people for granted. Pelosi, Schumer and the elites took them for a ride.

Tonight, they hopped off the bus.

[Higgs]

I had Trump winning AZ, GA, NC, NV, PA, WI, and Harris winning MI.

Had Harris winning the PV by 1%.

Not perfect but I think pretty close.

I also had the Selzer poll as complete hogwash.

Accepting my accolades humbly.

**Edit: Didn't post it here but I also had Republicans picking up OH, WV, MT, and WI. I also had Republicans keeping the house.

[It's Time.]

Snowlabrador, forumlurker, and Riverwalk were all vindicated.

[Umengus]

Snowlabrador, forumlurker, and Riverwalk were all vindicated.

the Democrats on this forum behaved like an infamous little tyrant. It was quite painful.

[ProgressiveModerate]

At least I got Kaufman County would have one of the biggest leftshifts correct lmao.

[Lacking All Conviction; Filled With Passionate Intensity]

Another prediction I have officially nailed:

I've been thinking about this for a while-- whether or not Biden would seek re-election if he won, and whether or not he or his successor would be able to win re-election for the Democratic Party in the White House. What does Atlas think? Personally, I can see a Democrat winning in 2020 but losing to a Republican in 2024... still, I don't know if that Republican would win re-election, so I might have to vote for option 5-- Trump in 2016, a Democrat in 2020, and a Republican in 2024, each serving only one term.

[LBJer]

Calling Trump a Nazi and a racist infuriated the average American.

Then that reflects poorly on the average American.

[Lacking All Conviction; Filled With Passionate Intensity]

And another. Given the Latino shifts we've seen in this election, the "bu-but what about the Kill Tony guy's Puerto Rico comment?!?!" stuff is looking genuinely delusional in hindsight. Why do you people think Puerto Ricans left their sh*tty island to begin with? Because they know perfectly well that it sucks.

6) The Puerto Rico comment is being ridiculously overblown. Nobody cares.

Your whole post is silly dooming, but just a head's up that everyone and their mom is going to be constantly bumping this comment in particular after the election. You clearly have not done any kind of reading or listening with regards to PR voters in PA (and elsewhere) who were enraged by the trump comic and have decided to vote Harris as a result.

The Puerto Rican population of PA is only marginally larger than the Muslim population of MI percentagewise. Dems also have much less to gain with Puerto Ricans than they have to lose with Arabs and Muslims. Yet for some reason, I’m always being told that Harris losing Arab votes doesn’t matter, but Trump losing Puerto Rican votes does.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Every state that both HRC and Biden won by over 10% swings R from 2020- not just CA and NY, but also WA, OR, CO, MA, NJ, MD, RI, and HI. (Guess VT and CT make this a hot take.)

I think this has happened for VT? Only other confirmed Harris states that are >95% in are RI and DE.

Was really hoping the battleground states would be more D at this point in the count. Definitely wasn't expecting TX to go R by double digits...

[NYDem]

Really hoping the Blue Wall polling error has been solved. If it has, then Harris wins with the Rust Belt path.

I've always been a bit high on NC, but that hasn't been borne out in the recent polls. Other than maybe NV it's looking like Harris' worst.

Every poll of NC is basically a tie at this point. I'm not sure what more you'd like? You're acting as if every poll there is Trump +4 or something.

A lead. What kind of question is that? Harris is down in NC by a bit over 1% in the averages. The only one of the big 7 where she polls noticeably worse is Arizona, which is hanging around Trump+2. "I would prefer my candidate to go into election day with a lead" is hardly some ridiculous want.

Apart from the egregious polling error in the Rust Belt last time, there was a smaller polling error in favor of Republicans just about everywhere. Using that as my basis it stands to reason that Trump is more likely than Harris to outperform polling. Even if I don't assume that and instead chose to view 2024 as a blank slate, where pollsters have corrected from their mistakes, that still leaves Trump with a narrow lead.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Trump won NC by 1.3%. If Harris wins NC, it's likely going to be by the skin of her teeth. Acting as if the polling being Trump up barely a point is some major issue is just completely overdramatic.

I really don't understand people's way of talking about some of the states around here - "other than NV, it's Harris's worst" when we're literally talking about Trump with a *ONE* point lead in the average -- in a state where he won by 1 in 2020! Some of you really seem to be expecting her to be leading averages by 3-5% in every state or something.

When did I say it was a major issue? I said that I had previously been "a bit high on NC," which means that I thought it would be one of her best swing states of the 7. I then said that "hasn't been borne out in recent polling," which it hasn't. NC is one of the swing states where she is polling worse. I don't know what's got you all worked up, but I assure you there isn't anything deeper to my post than: "My preferred candidate is not up in a state I want them to win, which is somewhat annoying."

I think if you're having this sort of reaction to people having a slightly different opinion about the election than you do, it's probably time to step away from the keyboard for a bit.

Because everything with you is negative. We're talking about a one point deficit in a state where basically all states are tied within the MoE and you are acting as if it's lost. It's just exhausting

The Blue Wall polling error was not fixed, though it wasn't as egregious this time. Trump did in fact have narrow leads in the averages by the end of the election, and he got a narrow victory. NC was not one of Harris' better swing states, it's looking like it will end behind PA, MI, WI, GA, and maybe NV.

Last time I'll post one of these, but good god was it annoying for wbrocks to start arguing and crying "why are you so mean" whenever anyone would point out that Harris was slipping. That or defending KMH's thoughtless rambling spam.

For the record this election has been a disaster. Don't get the idea that I'm somehow happy about the result just because I'm complaining about the bloomers a bit. I wasn't even a doomer! I thought this was a 50/50 election and my final prediction was the barest of Harris wins, but for some reason expressing even that viewpoint was too much for some here.

This wasn't a landslide in any objective sense, but good lord it should not be possible for this guy to win even by the slightest of margins. Even a bare popular vote win is depressing.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

My last forecast was not great because of Selzer and while I fought the unskewing D Bloomers hard in the polling threads, I will take most pride in these predictions from pre-Biden drop-out, even if they were not fully on point.

Re: Trump 2024 is DEAD

He remains the heavy frontrunner if he wants it. People don't realize it until he's shoved in their face again as the best option.

RE: Observation: 2024 is the first election where it is not socially unacceptable to support Trump

In 2016 and 2020, any respectable young person would have died of shame to be caught supporting Trump, unless they were straight white man who only mingled with straight white men. The most anyone could say in decent company would be "well, he has a point on X .... but I don't know who would ever vote for him because of the other 95 percent of issues / his whole demeanor." - and even that might be pushing the limits.

This could be very New York specific, but it seems like young people no longer feel ashamed if they plan to vote for him or feel the need to throw in a dozen clarifiers when they deviate from Democratic orthodoxy. People appear far angrier about property crime and the immigration crisis being thrown in their face than having to justify themselves - and they are really angry about the surge in the cost of living here - not that any politician has plans to get that under control but it has been more of a demoralizer.

I just find it incredible that the least embarrassing time to support Trump is now post-January 6th with more ongoing trials than I can count on one hand.
[snip]
This is not a thread to make any sort of prediction on a swing towards Trump, or to necessarily extrapolate one meaningless region of the country to the masses of middle America (where it may have always been acceptable anyway) - but just an observation of a seemingly strange phenomenon. If anything, most swing states will do the opposite of New York - and it's possible (likely?) that these voters were already in his column and are just getting comfortable saying so.

Half credit for this one. Poll herding makes this difficult to analyze but he did poll much better.

My conclusion - which I wanted to see if others reached - is that any Shy Trump effect in polling may have disappeared and that any competitive national poll is unlikely to result in similar over performance like previous times he was on the ballot.

RE: Let's Play a Game: Tell me why you think Trump is favored in November WITHOUT using polls (TERRIBLE THREAD)

I still maintain that Trump is a narrow underdog in 2024, but it's absurd to obsess over fundamentals and incumbency (the ringing endorsement of a fraction of a percentage historical result....) when few at the margins are swinging their vote based on performance, and most will be decided by people actually showing up or not. And it is clear that one candidate has more passionate supporters while slowly shedding the intensity of casual disapprovers. The most important thing to normies is the fact that Trump is no longer on Twitter so they don't have to be oversaturated with his every thought in every waking moment.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

You will have to accept your accolades from me this Wednesday morning instead of Tuesday night, but here they are, and you have earned them.

Congratulations! All politics aside (something that is ever more difficult with the... in respect for the thread I will simply say, the 'nature' of the Republican Party) accurate and precise prediction has always been the keystone of the Atlas, and you have hit it with this not just out of the ballpark, but all the way to the Moon.

From what we know now, you were spot on, providing not simply an accurate (a "Trump wins" is technically accurate) picture, but also one that is precise, elegant and possessed of potent predictive power. Even if Harris somehow manages to miracle up a win (which I think has a 0% chance of happening), all this would still remain.

John Dule, with your comments on this election, you have successfully reached the highest pinnacles of the Atlas, and I salute you for it. You deserve your accolades. And thank you for contributing to this forum we all use and, in various ways, enjoy.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

I had Trump winning AZ, GA, NC, NV, PA, WI, and Harris winning MI.

Had Harris winning the PV by 1%.

Not perfect but I think pretty close.

I also had the Selzer poll as complete hogwash.

Accepting my accolades humbly.

**Edit: Didn't post it here but I also had Republicans picking up OH, WV, MT, and WI. I also had Republicans keeping the house.

I was predicting that also, although the Selzer poll did throw me off and made me feel uncertain. Not that I said “Harris landslide” or even “Harris wins” or anything, but I felt way less confident in my predictions. But one thing I’m proud I got right is that I said repeatedly that the whole narrative of “minorities shift right while whites shift left” made no sense. The same forces that push minorities right apply to whites too. And in the end, the rightward shift was fairly uniform across the country. It happened everywhere.

[AtorBoltox]

The R swing in NYC will be savage

Got this right, but I thought this would just be localised and Kamala would still win, so I don't deserve much in the way of accolades

[🥥🌴]

Snowlabrador, forumlurker, and Riverwalk were all vindicated.

Me2

Though admittably i expected it to be a little closer than whatever this was. And Selzer made me really doubt myself.