Bellweather counties?
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Author Topic: Bellweather counties?  (Read 830 times)
Vern
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« on: November 05, 2024, 08:42:12 AM »
What are some of the bellweather counties we should be looking at tonight?
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2024, 09:57:12 AM »
The most important county in the county in terms of margin/result is probably Maricopa, AZ.
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ExSky
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2024, 09:57:55 AM »
Denton County, TX
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20RP12
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2024, 09:58:55 AM »
Erie, PA
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xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2024, 09:59:40 AM »

This, or Northampton.
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Izzyeviel
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2024, 09:59:47 AM »
Erie, Bucks, Centre - PA
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2024, 10:03:05 AM »
Didn’t Trump win all but one bellwether in 2020? Not sure this is particularly useful anymore.
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2024, 10:16:09 AM »
Door, WI
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G_Master
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2024, 01:59:04 PM »
The first Bellweather county, in my opinion, could be Hamilton Co., Indiana (its polls close at 6pm). It could be an indicator for how counties (suburban midwestern counties trending D) that are similar to it may vote in other states.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2024, 02:00:14 PM »
Kent County, DE and Clallam County, WA. 

Both have only missed two elections since the thirties and Clallam is the longest-running bellwether in the nation (has been "correct" since 1980). 
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2024, 02:04:23 PM »
Quote from: G_Master on November 05, 2024, 01:59:04 PM
The first Bellweather county, in my opinion, could be Hamilton Co., Indiana (its polls close at 6pm). It could be an indicator for how counties (suburban midwestern counties trending D) that are similar to it may vote in other states.

Agreed. That's the county I'm looking at first.
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phloaw
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2024, 02:22:29 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 05, 2024, 10:03:05 AM
Didn’t Trump win all but one bellwether in 2020?

No. See wikipedia's article about bellwether counties (sorry, not currently allowed by the system to post links).
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slimey56
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2024, 03:13:21 PM »
Grand Traverse MI
Muskegon MI
Gloucester NJ
Broome NY
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Steve from Lambeth
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« Reply #13 on: November 16, 2024, 10:16:11 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 05, 2024, 02:00:14 PM
Kent County, DE and Clallam County, WA.  

Both have only missed two elections since the thirties and Clallam is the longest-running bellwether in the nation (has been "correct" since 1980).  

As both of these were Harris counties, I think we have a new champion. Blaine County has called 28 of the 29 winners since it was created before the 1912 election!

Quote from: Steve from Lambeth on November 16, 2024, 10:13:04 PM
Blaine County, MT has now voted for the Presidential election winner in every cycle it's existed other than 1988. (For context, New Mexico - which also came into existence in time for 1912 - has voted for the winner every cycle except 1976, 2000, 2016 and 2024.)

https://twitter.com/realJeremyCarl/status/1857448999168659781
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #14 on: November 17, 2024, 12:03:56 AM »
Quote from: Steve from Lambeth on November 16, 2024, 10:16:11 PM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 05, 2024, 02:00:14 PM
Kent County, DE and Clallam County, WA.  

Both have only missed two elections since the thirties and Clallam is the longest-running bellwether in the nation (has been "correct" since 1980).  

As both of these were Harris counties, I think we have a new champion. Blaine County has called 28 of the 29 winners since it was created before the 1912 election!

Quote from: Steve from Lambeth on November 16, 2024, 10:13:04 PM
Blaine County, MT has now voted for the Presidential election winner in every cycle it's existed other than 1988. (For context, New Mexico - which also came into existence in time for 1912 - has voted for the winner every cycle except 1976, 2000, 2016 and 2024.)

https://twitter.com/realJeremyCarl/status/1857448999168659781


Pretty interesting because Blaine County is terribly unrepresentative of the Country - it has as large Native American population which obviously has unique politics and who wins the County in modern times basically comes to how well Dems run up the numbers with Native Americans (both in terms of margin and turnout).
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nclib
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« Reply #15 on: November 18, 2024, 11:53:31 PM »
Quote from: Steve from Lambeth on November 16, 2024, 10:16:11 PM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 05, 2024, 02:00:14 PM
Kent County, DE and Clallam County, WA.  

Both have only missed two elections since the thirties and Clallam is the longest-running bellwether in the nation (has been "correct" since 1980).  

As both of these were Harris counties, I think we have a new champion. Blaine County has called 28 of the 29 winners since it was created before the 1912 election!

Quote from: Steve from Lambeth on November 16, 2024, 10:13:04 PM
Blaine County, MT has now voted for the Presidential election winner in every cycle it's existed other than 1988. (For context, New Mexico - which also came into existence in time for 1912 - has voted for the winner every cycle except 1976, 2000, 2016 and 2024.)

https://twitter.com/realJeremyCarl/status/1857448999168659781


New Mexico, while very unrepresentative of the country as a whole, only voted for the popular vote loser once before this year.
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jaichind
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« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2024, 06:07:08 AM »
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freethinkingindy
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« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2024, 08:51:37 AM »

Blaine is in Montana, not Michigan, and it voted for Biden. Clallam also voted for Biden.
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