Rank these 5 states from most Pro Trump to least : FL OH IA TX AK
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  Rank these 5 states from most Pro Trump to least : FL OH IA TX AK		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Rank these 5 states from most Pro Trump to least : FL OH IA TX AK  (Read 631 times)
OSR stands with Israel
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« on: November 04, 2024, 05:14:28 PM »
I go :

Florida: Trump +11.5
Ohio : Trump +9.3
Alaska: Trump +8.9
Iowa : Trump +7.5
Texas : Trump +7
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Harry
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2024, 05:21:36 PM »
Iowa: Tilt D (probably really something like Lean R)
Texas: Tossup
Florida: Tilt R
Ohio: Likely R (I guess?)
Alaska: Likely R (I guess?)
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It's Time.
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2024, 05:22:24 PM »
FL: Trump+13
OH: Trump+9
AK: Trump+7
TX: Trump+7
IA: Trump+5
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2024, 05:23:39 PM »
Quote from: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2024, 05:21:36 PM
Iowa: Tilt D (probably really something like Lean R)
Texas: Tossup
Florida: Tilt R
Ohio: Likely R (I guess?)
Alaska: Likely R (I guess?)

In which case is Texas a tossup . Iowa and Texas aren’t demographically alike at all , and there actually has been quite a bit polling done on Texas and Trump leads by 5+ even in polls that underestimated the GOP in 2022
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xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2024, 05:23:57 PM »
FL: Trump +10
AK: Trump +8
IA: Trump +7.5
OH: Trump +6.5
TX: Trump +4
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Thomas D
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2024, 05:38:19 PM »
Ohio  T+10
Florida
Texas
Alaska
Iowa  T+4
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Harry
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2024, 05:41:34 PM »
Quote from: OSR stands with Israel on November 04, 2024, 05:23:39 PM
Quote from: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2024, 05:21:36 PM
Iowa: Tilt D (probably really something like Lean R)
Texas: Tossup
Florida: Tilt R
Ohio: Likely R (I guess?)
Alaska: Likely R (I guess?)

In which case is Texas a tossup . Iowa and Texas aren’t demographically alike at all , and there actually has been quite a bit polling done on Texas and Trump leads by 5+ even in polls that underestimated the GOP in 2022

Who can believe any "polls" when we know they're herding and we know they're throwing out good results for Harris because they don't believe them?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2024, 05:43:50 PM »
My brain keeps telling me rationally TX should be the least pro-Trump on these states but Selzer keeps messing with me. If it's not TX I think it's more likely because Harris is overperforming in the OH/IA than Trump overperforming big time in TX.

I'd say FL>OH>IA>AK>TX, but the middle 3 are definitely a tight call.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2024, 05:47:35 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2024, 07:03:18 PM by Mr. Smith »
AK  +9
OH +8
FL +6
IA +5
TX +5
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2024, 05:51:30 PM »
AK +7
TX +5
FL +4
OH +4
IA +3
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Joe Rogaine
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2024, 06:13:05 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2024, 06:23:16 PM by I Bet My Life Savings on Blexas »
FL: One of those states where the final margin probably doesn't match with how red it actually is. Favors Trump by a lean/likely kind of margin that belies realistically how safe it is. It's arguably the state which fits him as a candidate best. Could be a blowout for Trump, but even if it's not, Harris probably never had a chance of competing here. Ends up anywhere from Trump +5 to +10.  

OH: Hard to say. If Iowa actually is shifting you'd expect Ohio to move at least a little with it. Probably neck and neck with Alaska, where it'll be like Trump +6-10. Somewhere in there.

AK: Could continue to shift left. Cultural aspects that don't really mesh with Trump as a candidate. In theory if Dems actually made an effort here it wouldn't take much to move it, assuming you had the right candidate. For now favors Trump by mid to high single digits.

TX: In theory should be the least pro-Trump, but polls have had it all over the board, from lean/bordering on tilt R territory to Likely R. Texas is a behemoth with some trends running perpendicular to each other. Seems a bit too enigmatic for me to try to tease apart right now. But should continue a gradual leftward march even if it stays relatively stable or snaps back to the right a bit this time. Could be anywhere from a narrow Trump win to a point or two better than 2020.

IA: Maybe more elastic than we thought? It's the only one of these states where we've actually gotten a piece of evidence that Harris could win it. A single data point, but a noteworthy one. Maybe it's just a case of circumstances unique to it, like the abortion ban. I think this state can only be evaluated after the election. The outcome and margin will tell the story.  
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2024, 06:17:46 PM »
Florida: Trump+9.
Alaska: Trump+8.
Ohio: Trump+7.
Iowa: Trump+5.
Texas: Trump+4.
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walleye26
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2024, 06:59:36 PM »
FL: Trump +8
OH: Trump +8
AK: Trump +7
TX: Trump +4
IA: Trump +3
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here2view
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2024, 07:39:56 PM »
Florida: Trump +8
Alaska: Trump +7.5
Ohio: Trump +7
Iowa: Trump +5
Texas: Trump +4.5

I didn't expect Iowa to be to the left of Ohio, but I am giving Selzer some credence.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2024, 09:25:41 PM »
Florida: Trump +11
Texas: Trump +8.5
Ohio: Trump +8
Alaska: Trump +7.5
Iowa: Trump +7
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It's Time.
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« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2024, 07:56:41 PM »
TX: Trump+13.8%
IA: Trump+13.2%
FL: Trump+13.1%
OH: Trump+11.3%

AK: TBD
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2024, 08:02:32 PM »
Even with all the crazy sh**t that happened on Election Night Texas really threw us for a curveball. Eight years of gains smote in a single night.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #17 on: December 05, 2024, 11:48:12 PM »
Quote from: It's Time. on November 07, 2024, 07:56:41 PM
TX: Trump+13.8%
IA: Trump+13.2%
FL: Trump+13.1%
OH: Trump+11.3%

AK: TBD

Alaska voted for Trump by 13.3 points so looks like my favorite red state ended up winning this competition
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iceman
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« Reply #18 on: December 06, 2024, 05:46:02 PM »
lmao how peoples predictions were so off
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