Atlas Poll: Post Selzer, what do you believe will be the final result in Iowa. Vote here.

[Atlas Force]

Trump+5, I agree that she has at minimum Harris’s vote share right

[Compuzled_One]

Trump+8.5 or something.

[TWTown]

Trump +10

ducks for cover

[neuroticballofanxiety]

Trump +10

ducks for cover

I mean, it's not a horribly wild prediction given R+8 4 years ago. I'd rather have honest, if pessimistic estimates like yours than a wall of "Harris is totally going to sweep!!!".

Most people, me included, still have a gut belief that Iowa will be within R+3 to R+10.

[Sir Mohamed]

✓ Trump - 53.1%
Harris - 45.5%

[SCNCmod]

Harris wins by less than 1%.

I created a thread below that shows the most restrictive Abortion bans (6weeks or less), and lists the Pro-Choice rating of the state, and whether there are ballot measures that may expand rights.

Of the most restrictive states, with no ballot measures- Iowa has the highest pro-choice rating.  I think Iowa could denote the tipping point of factors.. (combined with Trump's perceived lack of decorum the past couple of weeks) that leads to white women over 65 breaking hard enough towards Harris, to sway the states outcome.

Also- if you look at a graph of the 3  polls TDR put out.. there is a linear progression leading to the recent result. *one other thing I really like about the poll is a 4th category for small towns (rather than just rural).


**So Harris- but the result may be somewhat limited to Iowa / not widespread conclusion to draw regarding other states (although NC would likely be the most similar.. regarding abortion factors/ pro choice rating, and lack of a ballot measure).

[ProudModerate2]

So far in this poll, it seems most votes point to users voting to step-down just slightly from 2020 results, where trump won by +8.

But I thought more people would be swayed by Selzer to vote even a closer race, in the lowest bracket for trump barely winning, or the lowest bracket where Harris takes Iowa.

Interesting.
We will have a better picture of what will happen in Iowa tomorrow (election day).

[Duke 🇺🇸]

Trump by 7-8%. There could be movement towards Harris but it would be shocking if she won it. Think Indiana 2008.

[NumbersNerd]

I know it usually does not end well for those who challenge Selzer, but I still cannot see Iowa being a tossup. Even in the midterms, after Dobbs was already an issue, it still voted 10 points to the right of the nation. I think it'll be Trump +7, but we'll see if Selzer somehow maintains her streak.

[seskoog]

Trump+4.7

[SevenEleven]

Trump +2

[dw93]

Trump +3-6. If Harris keeps him under 5, he's in trouble in the battlegrounds, not to mention Cruz and Scott would likely be in trouble as well, seeing how TX and FL voted left of IA in 2020 and would likely trend a bit left in this scenario too.

[neuroticballofanxiety]

I know it usually does not end well for those who challenge Selzer, but I still cannot see Iowa being a tossup. Even in the midterms, after Dobbs was already an issue, it still voted 10 points to the right of the nation. I think it'll be Trump +7, but we'll see if Selzer somehow maintains her streak.

Same here, although people did mention that the Iowa 6-week ban kicked in only a few months ago, and their governor seems to have done it unexpectedly?

I honestly don't know anything anymore lol. Hoping the split is at least within the MoE because Selzer seems like a super nice lady and I can't imagine what people would do to her if she was wrong. It's easy to ignore the large faceless national polling firms because no one ever trusted them anyway but as far as Selzer goes, it's just her.

It's kinda telling that even the most hopium-addicted Dems are like, "Yeah, I do not believe D+3. It's going to be something like R+5 where the error matches her worst year on record but is still bad for Trump."

[Voice of low info America]

Even a perfect poll can be wrong.

[Talleyrand]

Trump by double digits.

[ProudModerate2]

I will lock the voting aspect (only) of this thread, at about 7 PM (Eastern).
Get your vote in (if you haven't already).

[Zinneke]

Trump but only by like 1%

[ProudModerate2]

Voting now locked.
But you can still post comments.

[pbrower2a]

Harris barely wins the state.

[Mr. Smith]

Looks like he's on track for double digits.

[SuzerainOfSwat]

Looks like he's on track for double digits.

I predicted +7 for Trump and may have underestimated it by 5

[SCNCmod]

I'm sticky by a squeeker  win for Harris (less than 1%)... But only implications to draw from Iowa are to NC.. no other states. So i say Harris wins NC and Iowa by less than 1%

[SuzerainOfSwat]

I'm sticky by a squeeker  win for Harris (less than 1%)... But only implications to draw from Iowa are to NC.. no other states. So i say Harris wins NC and Iowa by less than 1%

I’m 11 beers deep and 2 shots since the 1800 est closings and I’m not even that dumb to predict this boofenry

[pbrower2a]

Selzer knows what she is doing. Iowa got hit hard by COVID-19, and the people who died of it were heavily Republican.

[TheReckoning]

Selzer knows what she is doing. Iowa got hit hard by COVID-19, and the people who died of it were heavily Republican.

Um what?