Atlas Poll: Post Selzer, what do you believe will be the final result in Iowa. Vote here.
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  Atlas Poll: Post Selzer, what do you believe will be the final result in Iowa. Vote here.		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: After the shocking news from Selzer, what do you believe will be the final result in Iowa.
#1
Harris +3 or better		  
#2
Harris +0.1 to +2.9		  
#3
Trump +0.1 to +2.9		  
#4
Trump +3.0 to +5.9		  
#5
Trump +6.0 to +8.9		  
#6
Trump +9.0 to +11.9		  
#7
Trump +12 or better		  
#8
No opinion / No vote		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 180

Author Topic: Atlas Poll: Post Selzer, what do you believe will be the final result in Iowa. Vote here.  (Read 1930 times)
ProudModerate2
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« on: November 03, 2024, 01:30:46 PM »
Poll Question:

After the shocking news from Selzer, what do you believe will be the final result in Iowa.

----------------------

This poll will stay open, up to the time the very first state closes its election hours on Nov 5th.
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Malikconcep
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2024, 01:32:26 PM »
Even though I would not bet against Selzer it is still probably too far. Still I would treat the poll as worse than the Trump+4 that was the previous so voting that he wins by less than 3.
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KakyoinMemeHouse
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2024, 01:32:34 PM »


Serious answer: Harris by a tilt to slight lean margin.
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Atlasia GM Liminal
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2024, 01:42:54 PM »
pure tossup
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Brittain33
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2024, 01:46:10 PM »
Don’t we have this poll going already on another thread?
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pantsaregood
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2024, 01:47:34 PM »
Sticking to Trump+6-9. I'm betting against Selzer at my own peril.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2024, 03:37:11 PM »
I think Selzer has something here.
trump still wins, but in the low bracket.

Voted:  Trump +0.1 to +2.9
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2024, 03:38:26 PM »
Trump: 52.7%
Harris: 46.2%

(Trump +6.5)
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xavier110
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2024, 03:39:48 PM »

Yeah, I’m around here too.
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Frodo
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2024, 03:40:14 PM »
Trump wins Iowa but by only 3 to 5 points.  
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Harry
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2024, 03:41:26 PM »
Tilt Harris I guess.

Give its track record, the Selzer poll is more likely to be within 3 points of the final result than not, BUT I also wouldn't be particularly surprised if it's Trump winning by 3 or so. I would be surprised if Trump wins by 5 or more (although even that result implies a Harris win).
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Trump v. Wong Kim Ark
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2024, 04:05:51 PM »
Harris by less than 1.
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NC611
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2024, 04:07:19 PM »
Harris +1
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2024, 04:08:09 PM »
Trump +5, hope I’m wrong.
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Agafin
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2024, 04:10:40 PM »
Obama's win in 2012 actually followed a 2010 red wave in Iowa. So you can't even use the 2022 midterms to dismiss the possibility. It's possible. Maybe this will be the time she'll be off but I'll still trust Selzer's methodology and say Harris +2 to Harris +4.
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Harry
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2024, 04:10:49 PM »
How about this:

Even if you still have Iowa in Trump's column (which is understandable), I think we all have to admit there are 8 "tossup states" now, instead of 7.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2024, 04:39:30 PM »
Trump+5. 52% to Harris-47%.
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Don't Tread on Me
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2024, 04:41:09 PM »
Probably Trump 52/45 or something like that
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2024, 04:43:13 PM »
Trump 53-46. Would still be underwhelming for him though
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2024, 05:18:52 PM »
Trump+3-6
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2024, 05:19:25 PM »
Quote from: 7,052,770 on November 03, 2024, 04:10:49 PM
How about this:

Even if you still have Iowa in Trump's column (which is understandable), I think we all have to admit there are 8 "tossup states" now, instead of 7.

Not rlly. IA is still, like, Lean R imo, Selzer notwithstanding.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2024, 05:22:10 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2024, 05:44:06 PM by Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ »
Insane that the median Atlas response is Trump +4. Maybe there really are too many doomers in our midst. I will trust facts and acknowledge the state is clearly a toss-up at best and Harris is probably favored to edge it out.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2024, 05:24:01 PM »
Quote from: KakyoinMemeHouse on November 03, 2024, 01:32:34 PM


Serious answer: Harris by a tilt to slight lean margin.

O you of little faith. Don't give up on Kansas!
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walleye26
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2024, 05:32:07 PM »
Trump +3, 51-48
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MABA 2020
MakeAmericaBritishAgain
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2024, 05:51:11 PM »
Despite the optimism boost Selzer has given me I'd still say Trump +5% at the end of the day.
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